Dominic Tierney
On April 8, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire. But despite two days of negotiations in Islamabad and speculation about a second round of talks, the two sides have so far failed to reach a deal to end the war. This is perhaps because they have each already repeatedly claimed complete victory. When asked, on April 11, about the progress of the Islamabad talks, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “Regardless of what happens, we win. We’ve totally defeated that country.” Several days prior, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared that the United States has suffered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat.”
At first, sorting through these competing claims of victory might seem to demand an impartial tally of each side’s material gains and losses. But there is no objective way to judge who wins and who loses a war. Instead, victory is in the eye of the beholder. Material outcomes are just one among several factors that shape wartime narratives of success and failure. Other dynamics, including psychology, optics, and media and political spin, also skew the narrative. The dominant story that emerges about who won and who lost can in turn have powerful political effects. It may even matter more than events on the battlefield.
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