Karl Vick and Kay Armin Serjoie
Iran’s leaders believe they are prevailing in the war, and not without reason, analysts say. A month into a conflict prosecuted by two far more powerful militaries, the Islamic Republic has not only survived, but appears poised to dictate the terms of how it ends. “Yes, military bases have been targeted. A lot of military commanders have been killed. But from their point of view, they are winning the war,” says Saeid Golkar, an associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, and an expert on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). “They have been able to push Trump back to negotiating.”
After more than 16,000 airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel, the fulcrum of the war is not Iran’s battered military but, rather, the fate of the world economy. The Tehran regime regards the impact it has had on global oil prices as validation of its doctrine of asymmetrical warfare—relying not on tanks or battleships, but pinprick attacks targeting the fragile infrastructure of the Middle East’s petroleum industry.
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