At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Rush Doshi, Chris McGuire, Heidi E. Crebo-Rediker, David Sacks, David M. Hart

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping convened in Beijing on May 14–15, with China holding a strategic advantage in a summit delayed by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The meeting occurred amidst global economic instability driven by high oil prices and a fragile U.S.-China trade truce. Beijing's confidence stemmed from the U.S.'s Iran conflict and China's solidified dominance in critical minerals and global energy supply. Xi Jinping's belief that "the East is rising" was reinforced by China's success in countering Trump's previous trade escalations, notably by threatening rare earth mineral restrictions. Economic discussions saw China aiming to consolidate its technological position and revive its economy, while the U.S. sought symbolic trade wins. Taiwan was a critical issue, with Beijing pushing for U.S. policy shifts, including an explicit statement opposing independence. AI dialogue focused on safety, which China viewed as an opportunity for technology access to narrow its gap with the U.S., underscoring a need for targeted dialogue with maximum pressure from Washington.

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