The Atlantic | Robert Kagan
A hypothetical confrontation with Iran portends an unprecedented strategic defeat for the United States, far more profound than past setbacks in Vietnam or Afghanistan. Unlike those conflicts, a loss against Iran would be irreparable, permanently altering America's global position and influence. Control over the Strait of Hormuz would solidify Iran's status as a key regional and international power. This outcome would significantly strengthen the roles of China and Russia, who are allied with Iran, while simultaneously undermining the credibility and perceived capabilities of the United States. Such a defeat, rather than showcasing American strength, would expose its unreliability and inability to achieve its strategic objectives, triggering a global reevaluation by both allies and adversaries. Nations would be forced to adjust their strategic calculations, acknowledging a substantially diminished American role and a newly empowered Iranian-led bloc, fundamentally reshaping the international order.
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