The National Interest | David Kirichenko
Ukrainian forces are increasingly challenging Russia's control over Crimea, compelling Moscow to prioritize air defense between its homeland and the occupied peninsula. Russia's 2014 annexation made Crimea a critical base for its full-scale invasion, positioning its degradation as a central strategic objective for Kyiv. Historically, the Kremlin never recognized Crimea as Ukrainian, a stance evident in earlier crises. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) advocated for aggressive operations in Crimea even before 2022, highlighted by a significant 2016 covert raid. Post-2022, Ukraine intensified efforts, with the October 2022 Kerch Bridge attack marking a turning point. Ukraine consistently targets the bridge and naval assets in Sevastopol Bay, showcasing their vulnerability despite robust defenses. Experts indicate Ukraine will continue to find tactics to penetrate these defenses. By early 2026, Ukraine's actions, including widespread naval drone use, reportedly destroyed or seriously damaged around 30 percent of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, forcing Moscow to relocate key assets from the peninsula. This strategy aims to isolate Crimea and render it an untenable Russian military sanctuary.
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