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3 May 2014

LESSONS FROM KASHMIR 2014 ELECTIONS – ANALYSIS


By Rahul K Bhonsle

That the separatists, terrorist groups and their masters across the Line of Control will attempt to disrupt or at least restrict participation of people in the General Elections in the Valley was a given. United Jihad Council (UJC) chairman and Hizbul Mujahideen supreme commander appealed to the people to boycott forthcoming polls, Salah-ud-Din said; “Incidents like the hanging of Muhammad Afzal Guru and rape of innocent women at the hands of Army indicate that all Indian agencies are hand in glove to inflict maximum humiliation on Kashmiri people. The government of India, its armed forces and other establishments are pursuing the same policy vis-à-vis Kashmir and its people. Guru was hanged to appease Hindu fanatics while the death sentence of Bhullar was commuted to life sentence,” Salah-ud-Din said


While the mood was sullen yet the overall percentage was decent. South Kashmir polled approximately 29 percent one percent higher than the 2009 elections. In Central Kashmir polling was 26 percent again a notch higher than that in 2009 by the 12 lakh electorate in Lok Sabha constituency amid tight security. This is a marginal increase from the 25 percent or so that was recorded in 2009. Surpassing the same has not been possible due to a number of factors.

With separatists extending their boycott of elections in the Valley there were not much expectations of high voting. Lack of enthusiasm in the masses for Lok Sabha elections as compared to local ones is another major factor apart from the boycott. While the Srinagar city has recorded a mere 11 percent plus other areas on the periphery which are the strong hold of National Conference have seen relatively heavy polling at over 40 percent thus raising hopes of permeation of nationalist sentiment in these areas. Similarly there was a fair percentage of voting in Anantnag and Kulgam segments of the South Kashmir constituency but Shopian and Pulwama particularly Tral remain a concern as in the latter only 6 percent plus voting was recorded indicating both a fear amongst residents to come out and vote and tacit support to boycott call by separatists. It is apparent that the security forces could not prevent militant groups from creating fear by targeting grass roots leaders of nationalist parties’ just days before the elections.

It is not the level of polling but continued alienation of the people in selected pockets that should be of concern. In ways this is a grim reminder to the government, security forces and civil society of challenges of bringing normalcy to pockets of the Valley which can be swayed by actions of terrorist groups and calls by separatists. A focused approach to tackle separatist sentiment in areas such as Srinagar Downtown, Tral, Pulwama, Shopian, Bandipora and Sopore should be attempted while consolidating gains in Anantnag and Badgam amongst others. Areas as Kangan and Ganderbal have always favoured the National Conference thus retaining allegiance of the people in these areas is important.

There are a number of tacks that militant groups in the Valley followed to prevent smooth conduct of the polls process and upset the security grid prior to the elections. One such tactic was targeting village headman who are elected representatives at the grass roots and have thus invited resentment by separatists and the terrorists groups alike. At the same time it is difficult to provide security to these given that they are too many in numbers and are thus vulnerable to sporadic attacks by terrorists. This vulnerability has been exploited in the run up to the elections in the Valley with killing of a number of sarpanches in succession thereby placing the security forces in a quandary while at the same time making a strong anti nationalist political statement with mass resignation of some of the village headman. This however had a localized impact and is also seen by some as a part of the tit for tat actions by supporters of the mainstream parties the National Conference and People’s Democratic Party or PDP.

In Central Kashmir campaigning by National Conference leader and union minister Dr Farooq Abdullah was targeted with a series of bomb attacks which fortunately did not result in loss of lives. The contest also assumed a high pitch with the National Conference fighting the so called Modi wave that is expected to see the BJP come to power in the country after 10 years of Congress rule.

In case that happens special provisions to the State of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 are likely to be one of the major subjects of debate. Article 370 of Indian constitution grants special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir. This Article specifies that except for Defence, Foreign Affairs Finance and Communications, Indian Parliament needs the State Government’s concurrence for applying all other laws. Thus the State’s residents have a special privilege related to citizenship, ownership of property, and fundamental rights, as compared to other Indian citizens. Article 1 of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir on the other hand states that Jammu and Kashmir is and shall be an integral part of the Union of India, thus providing a counter guarantee. Removal of Article 370 may thus have a snow balling effect and any move by the BJP is not likely to receive support from other parties.
Rahul K Bhonsle
rkbhonsle@security-risks.com, rkbhonsle@gmail.com

About the author: Security Risks.com

Security-risks.com is an independent venture by Rahul K Bhonsle, a veteran soldier and Promila Bhonsle. This endeavor is devoted to risk reduction and security through the processes of information and knowledge.

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