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15 October 2014

Making up Asymmetric Deficit vis-à-vis China

13 Oct , 2014

China’s surging economic power has been matched by increasing military might including investments in an aircraft carrier, anti-ship ballistic missiles, satellites, modern weapon systems and other hardware. In contrast, a decade of neglect of the Indian Military has widened the capability gap vis-à-vis PLA exponentially. With the new government in power headed by a dynamic Prime Minister, there is speculation of a new era in India-China relations. However, it would be prudent to remember that it is the capabilities that matter even if intentions change overnight.

Pentagon reports indicate that China’s defence spending exceeded $145 billion last year…

Pentagon reports indicate that China’s defence spending exceeded $145 billion last year with considerable advances towards modernising an arsenal of drones, warships, jets, missiles and cyber weapons. Although denied by Beijing, actual defence spending by China has always been much higher than the official figures because of the massive corporate-business-industrial complex that the PLA privately owns. Pentagon also cited a Defence Science Board report cautioning Beijing’s push, “combines unlimited resources with technological awareness that might allow China to match or even outpace US spending on unmanned systems in future.”

Last September, a ‘probable’ Chinese drone was observed conducting reconnaissance over the East China Sea (ECS). China also unveiled details of her first stealth drone in 2013. In January 2014, China successfully tested a hypersonic missile vehicle designed to travel at – ten times the speed of sound. China is innately focused on technology acquisition. Spying and cloning are institutionalised. Reportedly, China has even stolen US stealth technologies through cyber spying and penetrated the FBI. Spying, snooping and reverse engineering have given China designs of the US F-I6, the B1 Bomber, the US Navy’s quiet electric drive, the US W-88 miniaturised nuke used in Trident Missiles, to name a few.

China is capitalising on her growing foreign policy reach into new markets offering low-priced products such as the J-10 and JF-17 fighters, missiles, radars and communication equipment. There have been instances of EU firms circumventing sanctions to provide new technologies to China on the pretext of dual use through ToT or JVs in China. China aims to achieve parity with the US in science and technology in three decades plus. The J-20 stealth fighter was developed in record time. The stealth fighter has been unveiled and stealth helicopters and vessels are soon to follow.

China is capitalising on her growing foreign policy reach into new markets offering low-priced products…

The Urgency

China’s surging economic power has been matched by increasing military might including investments in an aircraft carrier, anti-ship ballistic missiles, satellites, modern weapon systems and other hardware. In contrast, a decade of neglect of the Indian Military has widened the capability gap vis-à-vis PLA exponentially. With the new government in power headed by a dynamic Prime Minister, there is speculation of a new era in India-China relations. However, it would be prudent to remember that it is the capabilities that matter even if intentions change overnight.

China already has enormous military capability and her intentions are hardly friendly, as demonstrated in recent years to her neighbours in the ECS and South China Sea (SCS). Her aggressiveness can be gauged from ongoing confrontations with Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and others in the Asia Pacific and intrusions into Indian Territory. Philippines has approached the UN but China is conveying at various fora that she will not abide by international arbitration. China’s ‘Middle Kingdom’ mentality has egged her to claim parts of Russia, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, Central Asia and India.

Conflict with China cannot be ruled out because the issue of boundary settlement is complex. Despite years of parleys, the only maps that have been exchanged are of the Central sector. In the Eastern and Western sectors, Chinese claims have been expanding over the years substantively and that is why China has not offered any maps. In Arunachal, China had earlier claimed Tawang but since 2006, these claims extend to the entire Arunachal Pradesh. In the East, China is looking at more and more depth to her energy pipelines through Myanmar. In Ladakh (Western sector), China seems to want a wider handshake with Pakistan with the occupation of Shaksgam and presence in Gilgit-Baltistan. However, for an amicable settlement, India’s strategic interests too need to be accommodated.

Conflict with China cannot be ruled out because the issue of boundary settlement is complex…

The Asymmetry

Future conflicts will be five dimensional – aerospace, land, sea, cyber and electro-magnetic. Information Warfare will include NCW, C4I2, electronic, cyberspace and other forms of operationalised cyberspace. Information superiority will be as important as land, sea and aerospace superiority. Space combat, cyberspace combat, radiation combat, robotic combat, nano-technology combat will add to forms of combat. Operations will be increasingly inter-agency involving greater application of all elements of national power. States will continue to employ hi-tech irregular forces; asymmetric and hybrid wars will be a regular affair. Bridging the asymmetries vis-à-vis China in all this is a herculean task that the new government should embark on post haste, nuances of which are given in succeeding paragraphs.

Higher Defence Structures

The PLA is fully integrated with the government. The all-powerful Politburo has three military members. Their focus is on strategy, force development, technology acquisition, military diplomacy and synergising all elements of national power. The RMA in China was initiated by Jiang Zemin, its implementation overseen by the CMC and Chief of General Staff with matching technological advances in strategy and concept, organisations and training – setting PLA after precision weaponry, satellites, superior ICT and putting in motion ‘informisation’. The PLA’s Armed Police and PLA’s Militia are controlled by the CMC and work in tandem with the PLA.

India is yet to evolve a comprehensive grand strategy or lay down strategic policy guidelines in pursuance of her national interests. The politico-bureaucratic establishment has been shy of indulging in strategic issues and remains content largely with the status quo. Lack of strategic culture, inadequate higher command structures plus keeping the military out of the loop in policy formulation has created great asymmetry in all related issues mentioned herein.

India is yet to evolve a comprehensive grand strategy or lay down strategic policy guidelines in pursuance of her national interests…

Indigenous Defence Industry and Procurement

China is spending about 1.5 per cent of total GDP on R&D. Increased self-reliance catering to defence needs is China’s strong point. She has resorted to leapfrogging technology including by reverse engineering. China’s defence acquisition is constrained by embargoes by the US. EU firms have been helping China under cover of dual-use technologies. About 40 per cent of China’s defence needs are met indigenously and the balance from Russia.

China has her own operating system KYLIN, home-grown search engine BEIDU, a fast developing indigenous GPS, the world’s fastest supercomputer, consistent technical standards for production and evaluation of IS products, number of FABs for manufacturing IC chips, testing and R&D establishments, laboratories and training establishments both for developing skill-sets and to formulate and practice IW concepts at the strategic, operational and tactical levels.

India, on the other hand, is importing over 80 per cent of defence needs. Very little investments are made into R&D, the DRDO, OFB and DPSUs can only boast of pockets of excellence and the private sector is yet to be fully integrated into the defence-industrial base. There is no roadmap for leapfrogging technology. In addition, the painfully laborious defence procurement process and red tape have left the military with gaping voids leave aside modernisation albeit the Prime Minister has called for addressing these issues urgently.

Increased self-reliance catering to defence needs is China’s strong point…

Aerospace

China has more than four times the number of satellites in orbit than India. She has demonstrated Anti-Satellite (A-SAT) capability successfully in 2007. The PLA depends heavily on satellites for military communication, reconnaissance, surveillance and navigation. The US had recently ‘guided’ a Chinese satellite gone defunct, so it may be surmised that China too is developing such capability. China has 24×7 satellite cover along the LAC. There are 11 airfields in and around Tibet from where China can launch operations against India. China has one airborne Corps with three airborne Divisions. Transport aircraft available can lift one airborne Division at a time for strategic airlift and one Brigade plus into operations in single lift.

India presently can air launch one parachute Battalion group into operations in one lift. In terms of numbers, the PLAAF is large and is developing a force structure that focuses on air strikes, air and missile defence, strategic projection and build up of an informationised, networked-base support system to operate in a complex electro-magnetic environment. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is down to 29 squadrons and there are gaping holes in India’s air defence. The government is taking steps to hasten the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal. The force level urgently needs to be raised to 45 squadrons.

China, perhaps, has the largest drone fleet after the US. The PLA envisions its drone swarms scouting battlefields, guiding missile strikes and overwhelming enemy defences through sheer numbers. China’s military-industrial complex has established a wide array of indigenous drones to accomplish these goals. China’s ‘Wing Loong’ reportedly costs around $1 million compared to the US ‘Reaper’ in the $30 million range.

Information and Cyber Warfare

PLA’s Integrated Network and Electronic Warfare (INEW) doctrine helps organise and structure forces for information dominance. Specific roles for Computer Network Operations (CNO) during conflict and peace include targeting C2 networks, intelligence processing centres, communication nodes, power supply grids; using cyber weapons to paralyse enemy critical infrastructure. Protection of the electro-magnetic domain is considered vital to own national security. Chinese network exploitation and intelligence collection capabilities pose formidable counter intelligence challenges. China is actively engaging in cyber reconnaissance by probing computer networks of many countries particularly US, Japan, India and South Korea.

India imports bulk of the computer hardware and telecommunication equipment from China…

The US recently indicted five PLA officers for hacking into American nuclear, metal and solar companies to steal trade secrets. Assets at sea are increasingly susceptible to detection by Chinese space-based ELINT satellites, SIGINT collection and land-based OTH radars. There is strong focus on counter space weapons, A-SAT being one of them. China is developing Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) such as LASERS, High Power Microwave (HPM) systems and Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) generating weapons. Chinese Defence-industrial reforms have three vertices – commercial ICT companies, state R&D institutes and funding infrastructure and the military.

Civilian entities are used to conduct military work, synergy facilitated by growing use of COTS technology and rise of China as a centre for global ‘fabless’ IC production, both permitting PLA to access advanced micro-electronics at the heart of modern military sensor and weapon systems. A recent report in the US has revealed Chinese ICs having been smuggled in and fitted in the US nuclear submarines.

India imports bulk of the computer hardware and telecommunication equipment from China where embedding of malware at the manufacture stage is easy and India has no detection capability. The main focus of modernisation of the PLA is enhancing capabilities in the domain of C4I2SR, joint operations, precision strikes, rapid deployment, combat support and realistic joint training. At the present rate, the Indian Army will take another decade plus to develop NCW capabilities. There are large voids in airlift capability particularly rotary wing. No full-scale airborne or heli-borne exercise has been conducted at full scale battalion level over the past two decades.

The PLAN is a significant force in the region, second only to the US Navy…

Naval Might

The PLA Navy (PLAN) is a significant force in the region, second only to the US Navy. China’s military investments provide it with an enhanced ability to project power at increasingly longer ranges. The Pentagon recently stated that the PLAN continues to expand its operational and deployment areas into the Pacific and Indian Oceans though somewhat hemmed in as of now by its limited logistical and intelligence support, especially in IOR. The latter will improve with time. Arrangements PLAN has with the ‘String of Pearls’ at ports of Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka would help.

China plans to deploy her first carrier battle group at Hainan but subsequent ones would find their way into the IOR. Stealth vessels, drones, OTH radars, nuclear SRBMs will all add to the lethality, in addition to space and air based surveillance and precision weapons. The voids in the Indian Navy have become conspicuous in recent months. The Andaman and Nicobar Command needs to be provided requisite teeth with its strategic location in IOR and proximity to the Strait of Malacca.

Proxy and Unconventional Warfare

China and Pakistan have both been resorting to Unconventional War against India since long. China has been providing tacit support to Pakistan’s anti-India jihad and in many cases Pakistan is acting as a proxy for meeting Chinese aims. Chinese weapons and communication equipment have been supplied to Indian insurgents, particularly Maoists via Myanmar to the PLA in Manipur and onwards to Indian Maoists. Media reports quoting intelligence sources had reported last year that China had supplied AK-47 manufacturing capability to Kachen rebels in Myanmar and Maoists in India.

China has been providing tacit support to Pakistan’s anti-India jihad; Pakistan is acting as a proxy for meeting Chinese aims…

Significantly, on June 07, 2014, Indian newspapers reported the emergence on the scene of AK-47 rifles “manufactured in Bihar”. The presence of Paresh Barua and other ULFA hierarchy at Ruli in China has been confirmed through communication intercepts. China has also been trying to mould perceptions of villagers living in strategically located East Sikkim and Ladakh through money, rations, kerosene, even mixing of blood, a trend that could be further exploited by her. Unrestricted and hybrid warfare are likely to be employed by China and peacetime cyber-attacks on Indian web-sites expose potential of this type of warfare.

Border Defence

China has methodically developed intricate border infrastructure. In India, the only words to describe our border infrastructure are ‘pathetic’ or ‘atrocious’ because of which we cannot respond properly to intrusions and transgressions or even sustain our forward troops appropriately. Chinese border forces are fully synergised with the PLA. In our case, ITBP has been deployed even in sensitive areas without placing them under command of the Indian Army. Operational responsibility of the entire Western sector along the LAC is with one Chinese formation whereas the same sector of LAC is divided between three Commands on the Indian side. Our surveillance and communication facilities in the border areas too are inferior compared to those of Chinese forces.

The Requirement

A comparison of forces shows that China has a competitive military advantage over India in all dimensions of battle space, more pronounced asymmetries being in strategic weapons, stealth maritime capability, force multipliers, cyber space, outer space, information space and asymmetric warfare. China has better military infrastructure in Tibet and its routes of induction are not susceptible to the vagaries of weather. In their Book ‘Unrestricted War’, PLA Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui wrote, “When faced with a technologically superior enemy, it is necessary to dare to completely upset the order of the cards in one’s hands and reorganise them in accordance with the needs of war and the interests of a nation.” We need to take a cue from this. What India needs is a strategic transformation.

A comparison of forces shows that China has a competitive military advantage over India in all dimensions of battle space…

Bridging the asymmetry vis-à-vis Chine should include: 
Spelling out a National Security Strategy (NSS) and defining objectives particularly with respect to China 
A comprehensive defence review to include defence and operations astride the LAC and IOR 
Initiating the RMA 
Reorganising higher defence structures including appointing CDS, restructuring the MoD ensuring professionalism, merging the MoD and HQ IDS, creation of Integrated Commands including Integrated Aerospace Command an Integrated Special Forces Command 
Providing requisite teeth to ANC 
Simplifying defence procurements and review LTIPP in accordance NSS review border defence entrusting LAC to army accelerate development of border infrastructure integrating private resources 
Defining the technology roadmap (including by leapfrogging technology), R&D, joint ventures with friendly countries specific to capability building in ISR, aerospace, cyberspace, electro-magnetic domains and for accelerating credible C4I2 structures 
Developing the ability to paralyse enemy C4I2 infrastructure, stand-off and stealth weapons to pre-empt enemy attack and adequate mix of DEW, PGMs, ASATs 
Developing indigenous operating system, computer hardware and critical software, and telecommunication systems 
Developing credible deterrence to asymmetric war and use of proxy/irregular forces and the like 

MoD’s 2010 Technology Perspective & Capability Roadmap identifies DEWs and ASAT weapons as thrust areas over next 15 years but the UAV and MAV programs of the DRDO must be accelerated. There is a need to accelerate the pace of optimising lasers as well. Presently, only the Laser Dazzler that impairs vision temporarily to control unruly crowds is operationalised albeit DRDO’s Laser Science and Tech Centre (LASTEC) is developing ADITYA – a vehicle mounted gas dynamic laser-based DEW system as a technology demonstrator and a 25-kilowatt laser system is under development to strike a missile in terminal phase at a distance of five to seven kilometres. We need to review and provide momentum to bridge the asymmetries vis-à-vis China.

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