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27 April 2015

OIL PRICE WAR MAY BENEFIT BOTH US SHALE AND SAUDI ARABIA – ANALYSIS

By Michael McDonald

Even as financial commentators on CNBC are starting to come around to the idea of a bottom in oil prices, the key question for US oil producers remains one of timing. How long will the oil price slump last? Is this a relatively short term event like 2008, or a longer term slump like the one in the mid 1980’s? After the oil price crash in 1985, it took almost twenty years for prices to revert to previous levels. If oil does not return to $100 a barrel until 2035, there will be a lot less shale companies around. Some market commentators have cited hedging as a potential source of safety for oil producers, but the truth is that given most firm’s individual levels of hedging and the price of oil today, the hedges are more of a Band-Aid over a gunshot wound than anything else.

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