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28 April 2015

Warning Report: Russian-Backed Offensive in Eastern Ukraine Likely If Ceasefire Breaks Down

April 24, 2015

Key Takeaway: Russian-backed separatist forces are on the brink of a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine. The redeployment of banned heavy weapons to the front line, reports of an increasing regular Russian military presence, and the intensification of separatist attacks on Ukrainian military positions suggest that pro-Russian forces are preparing to rupture the framework of the February 12 ceasefire agreement. The arrival of U.S. military trainers in Ukraine increases Washington’s stake in the deteriorating security situation and may be exploited by the Kremlin to justify a pro-Russian offensive around Victory Day on May 9, 2015.

Russian-backed separatist forces are preparing for an offensive in southeastern Ukraine. Since early April, the separatists have begun redeploying heavy weapons to the front line, and separatist attacks have increased in intensity. Reports of regular Russian forces in the conflict zone have also increased. The arrival of three Russian uninspected aid convoys and a Russian rail shipment in April 2015, all thought to include military vehicles and equipment, serve as additional indicators that pro-Russian forces are preparing to re-launch offensive operations possibly in concert with Victory Day celebrations on May 9.

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