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5 September 2015

Non-traditional threats are here

Tantowi Yahya, Jakarta 
September 03 2015

Thanks to the fast development of information technology, we now rarely see any nation state openly deploying its military arsenal and mobilizing its armed forces to annex another country’s territory. Yet it does not unfortunately mean the world is safer and freer from conflict today than in the past. What has occurred is in fact a shift from “traditional” to “non-traditional” models of conflict.

In anticipating the trend of future conflicts, I appreciate both the Indonesian Military (TNI) and the National Intelligence Agency (BIN) for their awareness and diligent response to the new forms of security threat. Even though it remains a discourse, the concern raised by TNI commander Gen. Gatot Nurmantyo concerning the new forms of future threat, known as proxy warfare, deserves our attention.

One popular definition of proxy warfare describes it as warfare instigated by a major power, in which it does not itself become involved. In this terminology, the main actor with the highest interest in the war does not get directly engaged in the conflict that breaks out.

It is not too difficult to cite an example of proxy wars that occur these days. The Lebanon conflict that gave rise to Hezbollah as a “state within a state” — complete with its own military power — is a suitable example of a proxy war. Hezbollah gains support from Iran (and to some extent Russia, whose interests are to contain US influence in the region). The government of Lebanon, on the other side, is supported by Saudi Arabia and the US. None of the four supporting countries is directly involved in the conflict.

In other parts of the world, a proxy war is not necessarily always about military force. It can also operate through political instruments, aid, culture and cyber attacks, which are equally powerful — albeit without a bullet being fired. This view is in line with the notion from Gen. Gatot, who suggested that proxy wars in Indonesia take place without involving forces, but by other furtive instruments instead.

A non-militaristic proxy war enables continuous and massive efforts at destroying and weakening a nation through various aspects of life without being easily detected. Gen. Gatot identified them as illegal drugs circulation, student brawls, anarchy, conflicts between elements of the nation, negative public opinion construction and social consciousness engineering through mass media as elements of non-militaristic proxy war.

Those efforts are aimed at creating a “lost generation” and a weak nation, which would eventually allow external forces to take control over Indonesia’s abundant natural resources. The public disputes between rival supporters of candidates Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Jusuf Kalla and Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa in the 2014 presidential election, which were fierce and vicious, could also be understood as a form of proxy war controlled by certain dividing interests.

The goal was to disintegrate Indonesia’s unity and fragment our bonds of solidarity as a nation.

But it does not stop there. The agenda of proxy warfare targeting Indonesia also has a certain relationship to energy and food crises that are envisaged will take place in the future. British Petroleum’s 2011 data estimated the world will run out of oil by 2056.

This may result in geopolitical changes at the global level. Centers of conflict will shift from the oil-rich Middle East to the equatorial zones, which are rich in food resources, including Indonesia.

Another threat of proxy warfare comes from within our own democracy. It has been argued by some observers that the democracy we have had since the reform era is a double-edged sword.

It opens the door for greater public participation in a wider spectrum of social life, but also creates a seemingly endless political turbulence that leads to undesired instability.

Meanwhile, to deal effectively with a proxy war that has no clear enemy, solidarity and unity as a nation are crucial. Ironically, the adverse effect of democracy seems to go against our values of solidarity, gotong royong and Pancasila. It is, therefore, time for all elements of the nation to sit down and discuss the way forward for our democracy, to ensure that it will contribute positively to our national defense.

Together with the TNI, civil society could draft a comprehensive strategy to cope with proxy warfare without sacrificing our treasured democracy. In line with the doctrine of defense introduced by the late, great general AH Nasution, Indonesia is a country that loves peace; however, we love freedom even more. In the contemporary context, we could well alter the doctrine as Indonesia is a country that loves democracy; however, we love stability, progress and development even more.

Non-traditional threats that should be dealt with are new types of war in this cyber age, known as cyber warfare. It endangers not only nation states and their governments, but also business communities and the general public. The International Telecommunication Union and ABI Research rank Indonesia 13th out of 193 countries in the global cyber security index, with no less than 50,000 cyber attacks annually. Four categories of threats in the cyber world include cybercrime, cyber espionage, cyber terrorism and cyber warfare.

The hacking of Sony Pictures and bank robbery by hackers group Carbanak that resulted in over US$1 billion in financial losses are but a few examples of how cyber crime operates. High profile eavesdropping activities during former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s term exposed the threat of cyber espionage in Indonesia.

Even more distressing is the data from the Indonesia Security Incident Response Team on Internet Infrastructure, which reveal that in 2014 alone around 48.8 million cyber attacks hit the websites of the Indonesian government.

In addition, the spread of websites used by radical groups to recruit new members and propagate violence prove the presence of cyber terrorism.

Unless we are prepared for a cyber attack, we could end up in a miserable condition. Even without the presence of foreign spies’ clandestine activities on our soil, sensitive data regarding national vital interests could be easily exposed — for instance with the help of Google Earth. These phenomena indicate that cyber warfare is not something that will happen sometime in the future; it is already happening here and now.

There are a number steps that the TNI and BIN could consider in protecting our nation from non-traditional threats. First, they must involve larger roles and participation by civil society in combating proxy warfare, especially because most of the warfare takes place in the civilian sphere.

Second, all stakeholders should realize that freedom and openness might have adverse consequences of opening our doors to foreign interests through various channels such as donors and aid. Therefore, we should have a mechanism to filter and ensure that foreign aid that comes to Indonesia is safe and free from a proxy warfare agenda.

Third, the government’s plan to establish the National Cyber Body (BCN) should be aimed solely at protecting Indonesia from cyber threats and proxy war. I believe people will support this program if it does not turn into an institution that would instead spy on the privacy and rights of the citizens.

Fourth, the TNI and BNI need to recruit more young, creative and professional people who are experts on cyber technology. A number of advanced countries have already deployed these strategies, such as the Blue Army division in China and US Cyber Com in the United States. Let us hope and work for a better and safer Indonesia.

The writer, a Golkar Party lawmaker, is deputy chairman of House of Representatives’ Commission I overseeing defense.

- See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/09/03/non-traditional-threats-are-here.html#sthash.O7BukCsr.dpuf

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