This paper examines writings from 2020 to 2024 produced by subject matter experts (SMEs) in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and others in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) defense community discussing the growing use of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs)—commonly called drones—in warfare.
It also provides preliminary insights into this community’s views on the use of uncrewed systems (UxS) and drone swarms as the next generation of warfare able to supplement, and even replace, many crewed platforms for combat missions,
as well as on the potential employment of drones in an amphibious assault or blockade of Taiwan.
A central finding of this paper is that the PLA is researching and developing autonomous drone swarm technology to solve one of the PRC’s most difficult challenges—a potential military invasion of Taiwan—and developing the capability to employ drone swarms in either an amphibious assault or blockade scenario.
An examination of PRC writings suggests that the PRC is learning from both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war on the use of drones and drone countermeasures and applying these lessons to a PLA-Taiwan military scenario.
Articles from PLA-produced and technical journals indicate that the PLA is researching, testing, and exercising with drones and drone swarms for a potential Taiwan invasion.
PRC SMEs observe that the world’s militaries are successfully using UxS for combat operations, including drone swarms, which they describe as providing the following advantages:Lower casualty rates because fewer soldiers need to deploy to the most dangerous combat operations.
Lower cost to produce medium and small drones, particularly for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and tactical strike missions.
Easier training for drone operators.
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