George Friedman
Last month, President Donald Trump declared – not for the first time – the drug cartels in Latin America to be international terrorists. And to some extent, they are operating as they do through the use of terror. But they are not religious or even ideological. Their goal is to make money and to use that money to protect their positions of power. Terrorism is merely an adjunct to this goal. To paraphrase Allen Ginsberg, some of the best minds of my generation have been destroyed by drugs, so I have no moral objection to destroying the organisations that traffic them.
But destroying terror organisations is not easy, especially when they are so enormously wealthy. But wealth is just one aspect of their power. The others are based on fundamental elements of human nature: fear and greed. The combination of the two factors makes drug cartels far more powerful than ideologically motivated groups. Those groups can kill; drug cartels can kill, but they can also lavishly reward. Ideology is a powerful force, but nothing near the power of greed and fear, which creates a compelling defensive system.
The only way to destroy the cartels is to cut off the flow of money that buys loyalty in their countries and elsewhere. And the flow of money rests on the vast demand throughout the world – particularly in the United States – for the drugs they traffic, which create a loyal and desperate customer base. Demand, as much as greed, is the foundation of their ability to move their wares across borders. The fear of their ruthlessness and the prospect of earning money can and do shatter border control policies.
Thus, the only way to destroy the cartels is to dramatically lower the price of drugs. Admittedly, there have been many unsuccessful attempts to reduce demand. I have no doubt I could quickly find a source for any narcotic if I wanted to. The idea that we can stop the flow of drugs into the United States while prices and demand are so high is an illusion that has failed for decades.There is a precedent for this in another substance: alcohol. Its effects can be as addictive and devastating as any narcotic. In an attempt to undermine its influence in society, the U.S. outlawed the sale and production of alcoholic products in the 1920s.
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