Alex Kimani
The ongoing Middle East conflict has upended global energy markets, cutting off supplies of approximately 8 million barrels of crude per day and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Brent crude has surged more than 50% to around $110/bbl since the conflict erupted in late February, while the U.S. stock market has lost nearly $4 trillion. Previously, we reported that Russia has emerged as the biggest winner of the war, with the conflict providing a strategic "economic lifeline" to Moscow by elevating oil prices, distracting Western allies from the war in Ukraine and strengthening its diplomatic standing among nations in the Global South. The Trump administration has even eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, albeit temporarily, drawing bipartisan backlash.
However, Africa’s energy giants could ultimately emerge as the long-term winners of this conflict. The ongoing disruption has handed African energy producers a distinctive structural advantage, thanks to being largely insulated from the conflict's geography. Leading energy giants in Africa, including Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania, are increasingly viewed as lower-risk alternatives to Middle Eastern suppliers. European and Asian buyers now favor African volumes due to lower insurance premiums and more predictable delivery times compared to volumes passing through high-risk routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
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