2 April 2026

Is the US dollar really winning the Iran war?

Kashif Hasan Khan

Nearly a month after coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the human toll continues to rise. Yet beyond the battlefield, a more consequential struggle is unfolding — one that could reshape the global economic order. At the heart of this conflict lies energy. Iran’s disruption of supply chains — particularly through pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf infrastructure — has revived fears of a global slowdown.

Oil prices have surged, shipping risks have intensified and uncertainty has returned to markets already strained by geopolitical fragmentation. For an interconnected global economy still navigating post-pandemic shocks, the stakes are considerable. In the short term, the answer to who benefits appears straightforward: the US dollar. As energy prices rise and risks intensify, countries require more dollars to secure imports, reinforcing the US currency’s dominance.

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