Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park
As the war with Iran enters its fourth week, there is an opportunity to look at data on the air campaign to understand what has happened and the combatants’ intentions.U.S. Strike Campaign: The U.S. strike campaign has settled into a sustainable pace of bombing between 300 and 500 targets per day. U.S. forces also now predominantly use far less expensive, short-range munitions. This “munitions transition” has vastly lowered the daily war costs.
Iranian Launches: Iran’s drone and missile launches declined rapidly after the first four days. While rebounding slightly since, these launches remain far lower than earlier large salvos. The “lingering launch capacity,” however, continues to inflict damage—particularly, to energy facilities.
Interceptions: Some Gulf states report very high interception rates, ranging from 80 to 90 percent. If true, that aligns with the best rates that Ukraine has achieved.
U.S. Strike Campaign
In the first 24 hours of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. forces struck over 1,000 targets as they worked from the long-standing U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) target list. The Israeli Air Force struck over 750 additional targets during this time. After that, the pace eased. CENTCOM likely was being judicious in using expensive and scarce long-range missiles like the Tomahawk and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM)—both around $3.5 million per shot.
The intensity of the U.S. bombing campaign picked up between Days 7 and 10 as the coalition took advantage of its air dominance over large parts of Iran. Operational success in diminishing Iran’s air defense meant U.S. planes could fly with few limitations and use less expensive, more plentiful munitions like Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), which costs less than $100,000 per shot.
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