Lisa Curtis, Keerthi Martyn and Sitara Gupta
U.S.-India relations stumbled badly during the second half of 2025. Differences between U.S. and Indian officials over how a ceasefire was reached between New Delhi and Islamabad on May 10, 2025, created a breach of trust, while President Donald Trump’s imposition of 50 percent tariffs on Indian exports in August 2025 led to a crisis in the relationship.
The February 6, 2026, announcement of the U.S.-India framework for an interim trade deal provides an opportunity for the two nations to get the relationship back on track.1 This is important because India will play a key role in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific region and has both the ambition and political will to help the United States compete more effectively against a rising China. The reduction in U.S.-India trade tensions will help unlock progress in other areas, such as energy, defense, technology, and maritime security, on which much groundwork has already been laid. However, reestablishing Indian trust in the relationship will take time, especially given the second Trump administration’s overtures to India’s archrival, Pakistan.
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