Foreign Affairs | David B. Roberts
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has placed Gulf states in a precarious position, making American forces they host targets for Iranian attacks and necessitating a new regional security paradigm. Gulf leaders must abandon the century-old assumption that security is a commodity to be brokered, instead building their own capabilities and directly engaging Iran. A proposed treaty involves a phased U.S. military withdrawal from major Gulf bases (Al Udeid, Fifth Fleet HQ, Al Dhafra, Ali Al Salem, Camp Arifjan, Prince Sultan) over five years, serving as the cornerstone for a comprehensive regional bargain. In exchange, Tehran would offer concessions on its nuclear and missile programs, halt belligerence, and move towards diplomatic normalization, alongside phased international sanctions relief. Gulf militaries must retune for warfighting, developing capabilities like mine-hunting and counter-drone tactics, rather than relying on external patrons whose interests often diverge. This "win-win-win" scenario offers a dignified U.S. exit, economic recovery for Iran, and self-defined security for Gulf monarchies, who must be principals in the treaty.
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