E-International Relations | Mordechai Chaziza and Roie Yellinek
The global energy crisis, triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating confrontation with Iran, represents a "grey rhino" event—a predictable, high-impact threat that policymakers failed to adequately address. Western energy systems, optimized for short-term efficiency, lacked resilience due to an overreliance on deterrence, premature weakening of legacy redundancy during the energy transition, and democratic fiscal constraints hindering costly preparedness. This systemic failure has propagated price volatility across global supply chains, impacting agriculture and manufacturing, and causing a "triple shock" of rising energy prices, food insecurity, and slowing growth, particularly in developing economies. In contrast, China has pursued a comprehensive hedging strategy, diversifying supply sources, expanding overland pipelines, accumulating strategic oil reserves, and investing heavily in both fossil and renewable energy infrastructure. This approach prioritizes resilience alongside efficiency, creating an asymmetry where states with greater buffering capacity gain strategic leverage. Energy security must become a core component of grand strategy, focusing on diversification, long-term planning, technological innovation, and integrated economic security to manage future shocks.
No comments:
Post a Comment