The escalating confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan, despite being overshadowed by the war in Iran, poses a catastrophic risk of major conflict, potentially nuclear, if not addressed by Presidents Trump and Xi. This danger stems from a mutual erosion of a decades-old understanding that preserved cross-Strait peace, pairing a U.S. "One China policy" with Chinese commitment to peaceful unification. Both Washington and Beijing are weakening these commitments through intensified deterrent signaling and provocative rhetoric. The U.S. has increasingly framed Taiwan as strategically vital, eroding unofficial relations, while Taiwan's pro-independence leadership and Japan's endorsements exacerbate tensions. China has responded by accelerating military preparations near the island, creating an action-reaction cycle that heightens miscalculation risks. During their summit, Trump and Xi must take concrete steps: Xi should publicly state no timeline for unification and reaffirm peaceful processes; Trump should reaffirm U.S. openness to any peaceful resolution. They must establish direct communication channels with Taiwan’s leadership and revive crisis management mechanisms to stabilize relations.
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