Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) | Jose M. Macias III, Benjamin Jensen
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is executing a sustained, below-threshold pressure campaign against Taiwan, marked by a over 500 percent increase in China Coast Guard (CCG) incursions near Taiwan's waters and a doubling of People's Liberation Army (PLA) air activity between 2020-2025. This gray zone coercion is strategically timed and geographically targeted, exploiting political flashpoints and aiming to normalize incursions while exhausting Taiwan's readiness. The report identifies that current U.S. and allied responses are predominantly reactive rather than preventive. To counter this, the analysis recommends establishing a coalition-based Taiwan Pressure Observatory for persistent tracking and public reporting, implementing a Readiness Relief Package for Taiwan's early warning and endurance capabilities, and developing a pre-authorized response ladder tied to specific PRC behaviors to ensure rapid, collective consequences.
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