RFE/RL | Denys Tymoshenko, Valentin Baryshnikov, Yauhen Lehalau, Donbas.Realities and RFE/RL's Russian Service
Ukraine's long-range drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, particularly targeting hydrocarbon infrastructure in regions like Leningrad Oblast, are significantly impacting Russia's war effort and domestic perception. These attacks, now occurring hundreds of kilometers from the front lines, have forced Russia to declare distant regions as "frontline" areas and scale down public events like the Victory Day parade. Ukraine's drone launches have increased dramatically, with numbers in March surpassing Russia's. While quantity is one measure, the quality of strikes and their strategic effects—such as disrupting logistics, reducing refinery output, and forcing Russia to disperse air defenses—are proving increasingly effective. The strikes have caused Russia's crude oil processing volume to drop to its lowest since 2009, highlighting the severe economic and military costs imposed on Moscow. This shift marks a fundamental change in warfare approaches, with both sides rapidly developing drone capabilities, significantly influencing the trajectory of the ongoing conflict.
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