Foreign Affairs | Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. Glaser
China is pursuing a long-term strategy for unification with Taiwan, predicated on the belief that time and a shifting balance of power favor Beijing. Rather than an imminent military invasion, China seeks to compel Taiwan's capitulation at the lowest possible cost, leveraging its growing military and economic capabilities to deter U.S. intervention. Beijing perceives its rise and Western democratic dysfunction as reinforcing its position, despite internal economic challenges. It actively employs legal, economic, military, and diplomatic pressure, noting declining independence sentiment among Taiwan's youth and the increasing influence of pro-unification opposition parties like the Kuomintang (KMT). Furthermore, China assesses that U.S. commitments to Taiwan are eroding, citing ambivalent statements from figures like Donald Trump and concerns over semiconductor dependence. This patient approach aims to deepen Taiwan's economic and social integration through "integrated development" while continuously constraining Taipei's policy space, ultimately shaping conditions for unification on Beijing's terms without a costly conflict.
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