Newsweek | Joseph Epstein
President Donald Trump's Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping revealed China's opposition to any Iranian militarization or toll charges in the Strait of Hormuz, a stance tacitly accepted by Beijing despite its own readout omitting the detail. This exposed the China-Russia-Iran "axis" as a partnership of convenience, suggesting Beijing could also be pried from Moscow. Russia, fixated on the West, overlooks China's growing long-term threat, particularly since the Ukraine invasion. China surpassed Russia as Central Asia's largest trading partner in 2023, with trade hitting a record $106 billion by 2025, more than double Moscow's regional turnover. Chinese capital now finances significant infrastructure across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, prioritizing the Middle Corridor, which saw cargo volume jump roughly 70 percent in 2024, bypassing Russia and Iran. Inside Russia, dependency is structural: Chinese goods comprise around 40 percent of imports, supplying 60-90 percent of key sanctioned war economy sectors. Beijing is Moscow's largest creditor and energy customer, forcing steep discounts. Leaked Russian military files from 2008-2014 show war-game scenarios rehearsing tactical nuclear strikes against China in the event of a southern invasion, including nuclear strikes on Chinese cities.
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