How the US Misjudged the South China Sea, Part II

By Xue Li and Xu Yanzhuo

August 05, 2016

http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/how-the-us-misjudged-the-south-china-sea-part-ii/

In Part I, we looked at U.S. actions and strategy in the South China Sea (SCS), and how U.S. policy so far has failed to achieve its desired result. The main reason for this is that U.S. strategy is based on a misunderstanding of China’s actions and goals in the SCS. In Part II, we examine China’s stance in the SCS and its response to U.S. actions.

After a series of tough approaches by the United States toward China, will China respond by further tightening control over the SCS (for example, by establishing an air defense identification zone)? By constructing massive military buildings on occupied reefs? By claiming a 200 nm exclusive economic zone (EEZ) around artificial reefs? Or by announcing that the nine-dash line is a maritime boundary and expelling the U.S. presence? It seems Washington must prevent these outcomes by all necessary means.

These questions are difficult; no one can promise these things won’t happen. Since foreign policy decisions are not always made on the basis of assured information, we will seek to answer these questions according to China’s foreign policy philosophy.

An Analysis of China’s Stance

U.S. Releases Video From New ISIS War in Libya

By Paul D. Shinkman 
Aug. 4, 2016

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It remains unclear who can order airstrikes designed to defeat the Islamic State group in Sirte.

A military vehicle used by fighters loyal to Libya's Government of National Unity (GNA) is seen near ammunition casing on Wednesday in Sirte, during an operation against the Islamic State group.(MAHMUD TURKIA,STR/AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

The Defense Department on Thursday offered a peek into how it sees its new war in Libya by releasing a video of one of its first strikes of Operation Odyssey Lightning, designed to defeat the Islamic State group at the port city of Sirte.

Germany-based U.S. Africa Command, which is overseeing the campaign, also released some details on the eight other strikes that have taken place since it began on Monday, trying to provide some clarity into U.S. military involvement that, like corresponding operations in Iraq and Syria, will likely be defined mostly by remote airstrikes and some secretive special operations forces on the ground.

The need for American involvement in Libya follows reports that as many as 8,000 Islamic State group fighters, largely foreigners, exploited widespread violence and political turmoil to establish a stronghold at Sirte following losses in Iraq and Syria. War planners now estimate their numbers there have decreased to fewer than 2,000.

France’s Real State of Emergency

By RAMZI KASSEM

AUG. 4, 2016

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When, on July 14, Bastille Day, a 31-year-old man drove a rented truckthrough crowds thronging the Promenade des Anglais in Nice, killing scores and injuring hundreds, France had been in a declared state of emergencyfor eight months. This state of emergency was renewed shortly thereafter, just days before two men killed a Catholic priest in his church near Rouen.

Since the Bataclan massacre by Islamic State gunmen in Paris last November, emergency laws and powers have been approved and extended three times. Last month, the French National Assembly voted to extend the state of emergency for six more months.

France is reeling. Unaccustomed to such violence, its politicians proclaim the nation is “at war” with terrorists. But should an open, democratic society indefinitely grant exceptional powers to its police and security services? Earlier this year, at the invitation of French and international rights groups, I traveled to France to investigate that question.

As the American representative among legal experts from different countries on this fact-finding mission, I participated in interviews with French government officials, members of Parliament, lawyers, judges, magistrates, police officials, union representatives and civil society groups, as well as individuals who had borne the brunt of emergency measures. Ourreport found that the state of emergency appears, at best, of questionable efficacy in combating terrorism. At worst, it may compound the problems France faces.

The emergency law gives the government the authority to order house arrests, police raids and bans on public assemblies and nongovernmental organizations, including the closure of mosques. These measures may be meted out without warrants or other forms of judicial approval; for those affected, any recourse after the fact is often limited and inadequate.

Saudi-Israeli Rendezvous: Does it indicate a Policy Change?

By Md. Muddassir Quamar

05 Aug , 2016

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The July 22 visit of a Saudi delegation led by retired Major General Anwar Eshki, head of the Jeddah-based Middle East Center for Strategic and Legal Studies, to Israel to meet Ambassador Dore Gold, the Director-General of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, has raised many eyebrows. This is the first time that a Saudi delegation visited Israel. Though not an official visit, Eshki’s is a highly symbolic one. Reportedly, the Saudi delegation also met Yaov Mordechai, the coordinator of Israeli government activities in the ‘occupied territories’, as well as a number of opposition Members of the Knesset including Meretz MKs Esawi Freig and Michal Rozin and Zionist Union MKs Ksenia Svetlova and Omer Bar-Lav, in order to encourage discussions in Israel on the Arab Peace Initiative.

This is not the first time that Eshki and Gold were meeting. Earlier, on June 4, the two held discussions on opportunities and challenges in the Middle East at an event organised by the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC. And, in June 2015, they had met in public and since then have reportedly held several private meetings.

Eshki has not been the only prominent Saudi to hold meetings with an Israeli leader. In May 2016, the former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal and Israel’s former national security advisor Major General Yaakov Amidror had held a debate on security and peace in the Middle East at the Washington Institute. In fact, Turki al-Faisal has in recent years publicly met a number of Israeli leaders including former Members of the Knesset Dan Meridor and Meir Sheetrit, former IDF intelligence chief Amos Yaldin and even the Yesh Atid leader and former finance minister Yair Lapid. Turki has been one of the most prominent advocates of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, arguing that it is the only approach towards peace and the formation of a Palestinian state.1

The Nuclear Deal is a Chance to Change Iran's Behavior

Sima Shine

August 4, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-nuclear-deal-chance-change-irans-behavior-17250

The anniversary of the nuclear agreement was just another day on the calendar, because no one believed that Iran would violate the agreement even before it had enjoyed the considerable benefits that agreement confers on Iran.

The key question facing Western decisionmakers and the American administration is how to make sure that the years gained by the nuclear agreement, assuming that Iran does not violate it, will be utilized to bring about a substantial change in Iran’s policy—in the regional theater, in its support for terrorism, and in its treatment of its citizens—and restore it to a place of honor among the nations of the world.

There is no doubt that the Iranian regime’s supreme goal has been, and remains, its survival and the preservation of the revolution. In this, incidentally, it does not differ from other regimes. Therefore, when the economic pressure generated by the sanctions and concern about their escalation became concrete, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei realized that push had come to shove, and he approved the opening of secret talks with the United States in Oman. Some important conclusions can be drawn from this development: The ultimate decision maker was and remains the supreme leader. He is strong enough to force acceptance of an agreement that had many opponents. And, what is particularly important, he is rational, and weighs costs against benefits.

Oil Won't Save Libya

George Ward

August 4, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/oil-wont-save-libya-17248?page=show

As political opponents of the Democratic presidential nominee often note, crisis has paralyzed Libya since 2011. To be sure, a power vacuum erupted after dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi’s death, opening the door to a political free-for-all, warring militias, and ISIS. Amidst the ensuing conflict, some hang their hopes on Libya’s greatest natural resource: oil. Ten years ago, over 60 percent of Libya’s GDP came from oil revenues. Today, after years of civil war and falling oil production, this number has been nearly halved. Under effective management, pumping more oil might ensure a successful democratic transition under the fledgling Government of National Accord in Tripoli. Certain realities—ranging from dilapidated oil wellheads to ISIS—undercut the prospects of such oil-fueled progress. Even without these obstacles, betting big on oil could prove disastrous. There is a road to peace in Libya, but it isn’t awash with petroleum.

Libya is precariously split between several factions vying for control. The UN-backed Government of National Accord, also called the unity government, formed in early 2016 and operates from Tripoli. The GNA faces an opposition body based in Tobruk, which collaborates with General Khalifa Hifter and his Libyan National Army (LNA). A third group, located south of Sirte, includes the remnants of the General National Congress (GNC) and several Islamist groups. Other unassociated militias hold territory across the country, including ISIS. Before Qaddafi’s undoing in 2011, Libya produced over 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, which generated most government revenues. Today, the country’s output is less than a quarter of that level—the oil sector is in shambles.

Disorder, Missed Maintenance, and an Unproven Government

ISIS Leader in Sinai Killed in Airstrikes, Egyptian Military Says

Jack Khoury, Reuters and The Associated 

Aug 04, 2016

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The aerial attacks against a group believed responsible for downing a civilian Russian aircraft in October, were, according to a Facebook post by Egypt's military spokesman, based on 'accurate intelligence.'

A screenshot of a picture posted on the Egyptian army's Twitter account showing ISIS targets of Egyptian airstrikes in Sinai, August 4, 2016.Twitter

ISIS in Egypt says Israel will soon 'pay heavy price'

Sinai's ISIS offshoot is most effective in Mideast, senior IDF official says

Paradise lost: How Sinai became a hub for drugs, money and terror

Egypt's military said on Thursday it had killed Abu Duaa al-Ansari, which it identified as the leader of the Sinai branch of ISIS, in a series of airstrikes near the town of Al-Arish.

Egyptian military spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammed Samir said in a Facebook post that the attack followed "accurate intelligence" the army received. The military then carried out a surgical strike in southern Al-Arish to eliminate terrorist targets, he added.

He said the attack, south of Al-Arish, also killed 45 other ISIS fighters and destroyed arms and ammunition stores used by the group.

A screenshot of a picture posted on the Egyptian army's Twitter account showing ISIS targets of Egyptian airstrikes in Sinai, August 4, 2016.Twitter

There was no immediate confirmation from Sinai Province, ISIS' offshoot in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

Have U.S. Officials Given Up on ‘Defeating’ ISIS?

KIMBERLY DOZIER

08.01.16

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You don’t hear national security leaders speak of ISIS like an enemy to be beaten. They talk about the terror group like a chronic illness in the global body politic.

ASPEN, Colorado — Officially, the Obama administration is still committed to defeating ISIS. But at the annual gathering of national security chiefs in Aspen, no one was talking about beating the terror army and its adherents. Instead, grim resignation and dark warnings of a long hard fight to come dominated the discussion, with every official predicting a global rise in terror attacks, including in the United States.

“Do we expect more attacks? Regrettably we do, both in Europe and the U.S.,” said Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), ranking member on the House Intelligence Committee.

While some here held out hope for a military triumph over ISIS in Iraq and Syria, they acknowledged that any such advances would represent the first stage in a years-long battle against a group that’s already spread to unstable parts of the Mideast, Africa, and Southeast Asia—and already inspired attacks from Paris to San Bernardino, Orlando toIstanbul.

“If we destroy [ISIS] in Syria and Iraq so they don’t have a territory anymore, of course that reduces their influence. But the virtual caliphate has not been destroyed,” said European Union Counterterrorist Coordinator Gilles de Kerchove in an interview, referring to ISIS’s prodigious online presence. “The capacity to inspire in the West will remain for some time.”

It was a far cry from earlier gatherings of the Aspen Security Forum, where officials and experts hailed the killing of al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden as a death blow to Islamic extremism. And it was a markedly different tone from President Obama’s statements of just a few months ago, when he redoubled his commitment to “defeat [ISIS] and to eliminate the scourge of this barbaric terrorism that’s been taking place around the world.”

ISIS’s New Chechen Warlord

WILL CATHCART, VAZHA TAVBERIDZE, NINO BURCHULADZE

08.04.16 

ISIS minister of war Abu Omar al-Shishani looks dead and gone for good, but his brother may be smarter and more dangerous. Will he step out of the shadows?

TBILISI, Georgia — It’s been less than a month since news broke that the so-called minister of war of the so-called Islamic State, Tarkhan Batirashvili aka Omar al-Shishani (Omar the Chechen) had been killed… again. And this time, since weeks have passed without a resurrection, it might just be true. But that news is not quite as good as it sounds.

The famous red-bearded warlord originally from the troubled Pankisi Valley on the Georgian frontier with Chechnya allegedly perished in early July while fighting on the outskirts of Mosul, Iraq.

Eight times previously, he was reported killed, and eight times it turned out he was still alive, burnishing his reputation as an almost superhuman survivor. But the ninth life probably was his last.

This time, ISIS’s very own “official” news agency, Amaq, bemoaned his passing as “a great loss for the caliphate.” More credible still is what we’ve heard from Pankisi, where we have interviewed Tarkhan (“Omar”) Batirashvili’s relatives, sympathizers and intelligence contacts extensively over the last two years.

What Makes Russia’s New Tu-160M2 Blackjack Supersonic Bomber Special

Dave Majumdar

August 4, 2016

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Russia’s new Tupolev Tu-160M2 Blackjack supersonic strategic bomber is expected to make its first flight in late 2018 and enter into full-rate production by 2021. The Tu-160M2 is a new upgraded variant of the late Soviet-era Blackjack, which was built in very small numbers before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

“The first Tu-160M2 is expected to take off by the end of 2018, followed by full-scale production in 2021,” Col. Gen. Viktor Bondarev, commander of the Russian Air Force told the state-owned RIA Novosti news outlet.

The new date reflects a slight shift from previous Russian government statements, which had indicated the new production Blackjack would fly in 2019 with production starting in 2023. Many analysts, expect that the new Blackjack will become the backbone of the Russianstrategic bomber force of the future assuming Moscow can find the funding for the project in the current economic climate.

The Tu-160M2—though it more or less retains the same airframe—is practically a new aircraft under the hood. The new bomber will feature completely new mission systems and possibly be powered by upgraded versions of the existing Kuznetsov NK-32 afterburning turbofan. The Russians plan to buy about fifty of the new Tu-160 variant, however it is not clear if the 16 original model Tu-160 airframes will be upgraded to the new standard.

Dead Drop: August 5

AUGUST 5, 2016
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/dead-drop/dead-drop-august-5

GENERALLY SPEAKING: Blogs and social media were buzzing this week with a debate about whether it is appropriate for retired generals and other senior former U.S. military personnel to engage in politics – and specifically to take on a prominent role such as speaking at a party convention. The debate was sparked by a speech at the Republican convention by retired Army 3-star Mike Flynn and at the Democrat convention by retired General John Allen (backed by a multi-cultural tableau of former servicemen all in mufti). Some argue that retired officers have the same first amendment rights as the rest of us, and who better to talk about military matters than those who have worn the uniform? Taking the opposite view was former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Marty Dempsey who wrote a letter to the editor of the Washington Post saying it was a mistake for Flynn and Allen to participate and to be introduced using their titles of “general.” In making his argument – we noted that Dempsey signed his letter to the Post with HIS title...General.

LESS ASPEN: The just-completed 7th Annual Aspen Security Forum seemed to make fewer headlines this year than in times past – probably because it overlapped with the Democratic National Convention. But, if you were paying attention, there were some high points in 2016. The 3+-day event features remarks and panels from high-level current and former national security officials, industry leaders, and top print and broadcast journalists. Included this year were sessions with Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, DNI Jim Clapper, CIA Director John Brennan, top military leaders, and the usual assortment of policy wonks. The event ended with remarks from Lisa Monaco, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism. Clapper urged less “hyperventilation” over reports (which he called a “serious proposition”) that the Russians are messing with the U.S. electoral process – ie: the hack of the DNC computers—an admonishment sure to go unheeded. Brennan made what organizers called a “rare public address.” Seems to us rarely a week goes by when he is not out in public these days, and we applaud his openness. He talked about how CIA is working to provide undercover officers with online cover stories so they are not unmasked by an ill-fitting or absent social media presence. A couple top DOD officials canceled at the last minute--- were the impending U.S. airstrikes on Libya the reason? No one would say.

Syria's civil war is a post-factual conflict

by James Denselow

Never before in the history of conflicts we had so much information as to what is happening, yet know so little.

The wreckage of a Russian helicopter that had been shot down in the north of Syria's rebel-held Idlib province, August 1 [Reuters]

James Denselow is a writer on Middle East politics and security issues and a research associate at the Foreign Policy Centre.

After five years of brutal conflict in which half the population has been forced from their homes, there is still no end in sight to the war in Syria.

One of the reasons behind this longevity is that Syria has become a post-factual conflict and it is that dynamic that fundamentally undermines any political solution.

So what does it mean to be a post-factual conflict?

The 'dead cat strategy'

Russia Developing Chemical Warfare Robots

Vitaly V. Kuzmin 
Aug 05, 2016

https://themoscowtimes.com/news/russia-developing-robots-for-military-use-54858

Robots designed for chemical warfare defense are soon be integrated into Russia’s military, the Interfax news agency reported Thursday.

“Onland robotic systems for chemical warfare defense are currently being developed, with work scheduled to be completed next year,” said Lieutenant General Eduard Cherkasov, head of radiation, chemical and biological defense in Russia’s Armed Forces.

“It is impossible to rule out that the robot detachments will not be directly used to carry out certain military tasks like manufacturing and chemical warfare intelligence gathering,” he said.

Cherkasov did not comment on whether the robot systems would include pilot-less drones.

Drones are currently used in disaster relief operations and in areas which carry a high risk of infection.

AFTER BREXIT, A BOLD BRITAIN: A GAME PLAN FOR REMAKING BRITISH POWER

JAMES ROGERS AND PHILIP SHETLER-JONES

AUGUST 5, 2016

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Whatever you think about British politics now, or the desirability of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, Prime Minister Theresa May has been decisive since taking office. While she has asserted – rightly – that Brexit can only take place once the four parts of the United Kingdom are content with the overall strategy, she has also stated, firmly, that “Brexit means Brexit,” adding, importantly, that: “we are going to make a success of it.” This approach, which feels as decidedly British, in its willingness to balance competing interests and its dogged optimism, is the right way to bring Britons round from the garishness of the referendum debate – hardly the United Kingdom’s finest hour – with its lies-as-truth, untruths-as-realities, and facts-to-cover-uncertainties from both sides. Short of the success of the upcoming legal challenges, or some unforeseeable political developments, Brexit is almost certain to happen.

As when waking from a disturbing dream, it is best to start with a quick reality check: Let’s separate desires from the empirical facts. The shape-shifting beast – that is, Brexit – has not bitten the United Kingdom’s leg off yet, contrary to various calamitous predictions. The country’s vital parts are still in place. The British people have, albeit by a small majority, chosen to leave the European Union, not Europe. The United Kingdom is still there, and its allies will remain its allies because despite all the appeals to base emotion, all the cant and exaggeration, nothing happened to change the determining facts of geography, geopolitics and a well of common culture. Already Britons’ spirits are starting to recover.

Does America Really Need to Spend More on Defense?

Lawrence J. KorbEric M. Goepel

August 4, 2016

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There is little consensus about the details of President Barack Obama’s fiscal year 2017 defense budget request, and there are few challenges of the underlying assumptions upon which the request is built. Congress, pundits and thought leaders argue over the makeup of the request and question whether the U.S. Department of Defense should fund a strategy of posture or presence, capability or capacity, readiness or investment, nuclear or conventional. The debate has also questioned whether President Obama’s budget request is too small, or if it makes smart choices. For example, the Pentagon civilian leadership claims it needs at least $11 billion more in FY 2017 to execute the president's national security strategy. Eighty-four defense hawks in Congress seek a $50 billion increase in the base defense budget. The Heritage Foundation is calling for a $75 billion increase in the baseline, while the Rand Corporation wants to add $50 billion and the Brookings Institution seeks $30 billion to $40 billion more. Only Third Way seems happy with the size of the FY 2017 defense budget.

Proponents of spending increases above the requested levels, from both the Pentagon and the U.S. foreign-policy establishment, generally criticize the budget based on two major premises. First, they claim the defense budget does not provide enough funding to support the United States’ current military strategy for dealing with today’s threats. Second, to deal with the threats facing the country, they argue that the defense budget does not receive an appropriate portion of the U.S. economy or the total federal budget.

Russia, Trump and Manafort: A Test of the News

Rachel Bauman

August 4, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-trump-manafort-test-the-news-17244?page=show

In 1920 Walter Lippmann and Charles Merz wrote a forty-two-page supplement for the New Republic magazine called, “A Test of the News.” They scrutinized Western media coverage of the Bolshevik revolution and aftermath. They noted that various newspapers had concluded over ninety times that the Bolshevik regime was going to collapse. Their conclusion was damning: "The news about Russia is a case of seeing not what was, but what men wished to see. The chief censor and the chief propagandist were hope and fear in the minds of reporters and editors."

It’s a verdict that is worth recalling as overheated coverage of American and Russia is proliferating. Consider a recent article on the CNN web site, which was entitled “Russia continues to shadow Trump.” In it, the CNN correspondent Nicole Gaouette pointed to criticism of Donald Trump’s statements about Russia. There can be no doubting that Trump has created a furor with his comments about possibly lifting sanctions imposed over Russia’s takeover of Crimea and his favorable comments about Russian president Vladimir Putin. Gaouette quoted a number of critics, including former deputy assistant secretary of defense Evelyn Farkas and American Foreign Policy Council senior fellow Stephen Blank.

What Gaouette did not do was to cite any experts who might take a somewhat different view of whether or not America should seek to improve its relations with Moscow. Prominent experts that might have offered a different perspective include everyone from former ambassador to Moscow Jack Matlock to Harvard University’s Graham Allison. Nor did Gaouette provide a broader political context, which is that the Obama administration is reaching out to Moscow, in the form of Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to work jointly with Russia in Syria.

Executions Cast a Pall Over Indonesia and Its 'War on Drugs'

By Luke Hunt

August 04, 2016

http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/executions-cast-a-pall-over-indonesia-and-its-war-on-drugs/

Unfortunately, Indonesia has been here before.

Despite international protests, Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo pressed ahead with four executions over the weekend, in a macabre state-sanctioned ritual that began with a lick of paint and a declaration that it would all be over by Sunday.

One local, Fredi Budiman, and three Nigerians, Seck Osmane, Michael Titus Igweh, and Humphrey Jefferson Ejike, were tied to a white stake, blindfolded, and shot by firing squad in the early hours of Friday morning after appeals for clemency were rejected.

All four were drug dealers and put to death after an extensive campaign aimed at convincing the public – and Jakarta’s critics abroad – that drugs are a major problem and largely driven by international cartels, and this justifies capital punishment.

Another 10 prisoners were given a last minute reprieve, for reasons yet to be explained, and as the clock ticked passed Sunday realized their date with the firing squad had at least been postponed.

Talk of firing squads first rose in April after word had passed that 14 death row inmates would be executed as preparations began that included a new paint job for the penal facilities at Nusakambangan, where prisoners spend their final 72 hours.

Russia Is Trying to Poach U.S.-Trained Rebels With ‘Unlimited’ Weapons in Syria

MICHAEL WEISS

08.05.16 

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American trained and armed, but often disappointed by Washington and dissatisfied, this brigade finds Russian offers of support enticing.

The Russian government is trying to poach Syrian rebels trained and equipped by the United States for the war against ISIS, according to the political leader of a prominent Pentagon-backed brigade in Aleppo — and the rebels are strongly considering Russia’s offer.

In an exclusive interview with The Daily Beast, Mustafa Sejry of the Liwa al-Mu’tasim Brigade said that he met personally with a representative of Moscow at the Syrian-Turkish border 10 days ago and was offered “unlimited amounts of weaponry and close air support” to fight both ISIS and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, the rebranded al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, in exchange for the Mu’tasim Brigade’s transfer of loyalties from Washington to Moscow.

Sejry clearly wants to use the offer to leverage more and better support from the Americans if he can, but that may not be forthcoming. (The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command did not respond to requests for comment from The Daily Beast.) And the Russians, meanwhile, are whispering a lot of sweet nothings in the rebels’ ears. 

They have expressed concern that by shifting their loyalty (and dependence) to Moscow, they would be joining the most important ally of their sworn enemy in this triangular war. And the Russians have said, according to Sejry, “We're not stuck to any kind of agenda. What we want to do is go back to 2012 when there was a government and an opposition.”

How Israel Plays Syria’s Civil War

NERI ZILBER

08.02.16

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/02/how-israel-plays-syria-s-civil-war.html

GOLAN HEIGHTS — Signs of war are clearly evident when peering into Syria from the Israeli side of the Golan Heights: bombed-out villages, forests hastily chopped down for firewood, refugee encampments. But above all there is the desolation and quiet. 

One village sitting almost on the border line seems to be deserted, save for an incongruous shepherd and his flock and, eventually, one or two trucks moving in the distance. This is a change from previous years, when “war tourists,” Israeli and foreign, flocked to this frontier for front-row seats to the worst show on Earth: plumes of gray smoke from mortar shells, sounds of gunfire, multi-vehicle offensives by one Syrian rebel group or another. 

Especially at the start of the Syrian civil war, when such things were novel, Israeli military officers would sit at the Coffee Annan café on Mt. Bental, overlooking the vast Golan plain, and through binoculars observe what one officer termed “the laboratory of terror” below. The “experiments” in this laboratory sometimes crossed into the Israeli side, with rockets over villages, roadside bombs on the border fence, and small arms fire; several Israeli army personnel have been seriously injured and at least one civilian has been killed.

Until a few errant mortars and an unidentified drone caused some excitement last month, however, the frontier with Israel appeared to have gone almost wholly quiet—despite the fact that the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) and the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra are known to be on the border. 

Why Did Russia Send ‘The Terminator’ on a Humanitarian Mission in Syria?

MICHAEL WEISS

08.02.16 

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Russia’s Defense Ministry says the aircraft was returning from a ‘humanitarian cargo’ mission. If so, it was a strange model to use.

While we don’t yet know which rebel group shot down a Russian military helicopter in Syria today, killing all five on board, photographic and video evidence of the wreckage reveals that what Russia is presenting as a pacific tool of humanitarian aid was in fact an assault craft rigged with rocket pods.

According to General Sergei Rudskoy, the helicopter had been returning to the Russian-operated Hmeemeem Air Base, in the coastal province of Latakia, after delivering food and medical supplies to Aleppo when it was shot down by “ground fire.” He also claimed that the area where the copter crashed, near the city of Saraqeb, is controlled by Jabhat al-Nusra, the former name of al-Qaeda’s official franchise in Syria.

Yet no rebel group has yet claimed credit for the downing.

The bodies of two of the crew were abused on camera, being dragged around and stamped on by Syrians surveying the wreckage, according to a video uploaded to YouTube by the Thiqa Agency, which appears to be a Syrian news-gatherer that began covering the war four months ago.

Photos of the passports and other documents belonging to the crew have appeared online, one of them identifying an Oleg Shelamov from Torzhok. This man has been tracked by the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a group of independent Russian investigative bloggers, to a military unit in Klin that operated the type of helicopter that was downed. He was the pilot.

Fat fighters: can tech tackle the global military obesity problem?

Berenice Baker
3 August 2016 
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Despite regular fitness testing and physical training, increasing numbers of armed forces personnel are overweight or obese, and some are turning to extreme measures to achieve a healthy weight. Could more sedentary, IT-focussed roles be to blame or even make high levels of fitness superfluous? And, conversely, could technology even form part of the solution?

The world’s waistlines are getting wider, and even military personnel, traditionally some of the fittest individuals around, aren’t immune to this growing trend, according to research.

“Studies generally have found obesity is rather alarmingly common in the British Armed Forces—stronger amongst enlisted ranks than officers and in the Royal Navy and Army than in the Royal Marines or RAF,” says BBC defence journalist and chairman of the Westminster Strategic Studies Group Pádraig Belton.

The Sunday Times recently published new statistics obtained through a Freedom of Information (FoI) request that revealed 270 British soldiers had been given diet medication to help them manage their weight and a further 20 had undergone liposuction surgery. It also found that between April 2014 and March 2016, around 800 members of the UK Armed Forces were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes associated with being overweight.

“In my limited experience, you get two types of soldier who suffer from fitness issues,” explains a British Army officer who wishes to remain anonymous. “Those who have been in service for many years and are a few years away from retirement, and those who have just arrived from basic training, which is more common now than even a few years ago.”

Fit for purpose?

Opinion: U.S. Should Adopt Interest-based Approach to National Security

By: Sandy Winnefeld, Michael Morell and Samantha Vinograd

August 4, 2016 

https://news.usni.org/2016/08/04/interest-based-approach-to-national-security

Our next president, like Barack Obama, will face a multitude of national security challenges, ranging from violent extremists, ambitious China, belligerent Russia, impetuous North Korea, treacherous Iran and heartbreaking human catastrophes.

While there have been times of greater danger in American history (the War of 1812, the Civil War, World War II, periods of the Cold War) there has never been a time when the threats facing our nation have been as numerous, diverse and interdependent as they are today. At the same time — for a variety of reasons having largely to do with past commitments of resources and current political gridlock—the means available to address these challenges are increasingly wanting.

In the midst of such complexity, it is easy to forget Henry Kissinger’s maxim that “No country can act wisely simultaneously in every part of the globe at every moment in time.” The responsibility inherent in the office of the president for making prudent decisions about our nation’s short- and long-term security demands the utmost in disciplined analysis detached from the whims of popular pressures.

So, what framework will our next president use for dispassionately aligning ends, ways and increasingly scarce means in support of both policy and investment decisions in the best interests of our nation?

Interests may well be the best answer.

Here’s Why Leaders Should Avoid Calling Subordinates When They’re Off Duty

By CARL FORSLING 
August 2, 2016

http://taskandpurpose.com/heres-leaders-avoid-calling-subordinates-theyre-off-duty/

A senior master sergeant sends a text message while parked in his car at the I.G. Brown Training and Education Center at McGhee Tyson Air National Guard Base, Tenn., Nov. 4, 2015.

Military leaders need to de-escalate this information arms race.

I got my first cell phone in my late 20s. I know that’s inconceivable to some of you who got your phones while still in middle school or even earlier. Don’t worry. For an old guy, I caught up quickly. I text like a pro and I am a slave to Facebook and Twitter. I love connecting with people whom I otherwise would have lost contact with, and sometimes would never have met at all, save for the Internet and that magic device in my pocket.

But there are times that I look back fondly to the days before cell phones. There once was a time when if I called a superior or another leader about an issue and he didn’t answer, I left a message, asked him to call me back when he could, and then I did what I thought was right. I didn’t know if that person would call me back in five minutes or five hours. In a lot of ways, not getting an answer was glorious freedom.

In a lot of ways, it was also better for the person I was trying to reach. Back then, a leader could go away for a few hours, or even a weekend, whether for church or a drunken bender, and not have to worry about getting an agitated call from a duty stander about a trivial issue. And believe me, they’re almost all trivial. That Marine will still be in the drunk tank tomorrow morning, and if Russia invades, the word will get around pretty quickly anyway.

How I Earned My Ranger Tab

By LISA A. JASTER

August 4, 2016

http://taskandpurpose.com/earned-ranger-tab/

As one of the first women to attend and pass Ranger School, Maj. Lisa Jaster explains how she physically and mentally prepared.

For me, going to Ranger School was never about integrating the military. It was never a quest for fame. It didn’t start off as a desire to change the perception of women in the military. I really just wanted the same opportunities that my male peers were given automatically.

The secondary mission of an engineer is to fight as infantry. I am an engineer. Going to Ranger School was an opportunity to build my repertoire and become the best possible version of me. I want to be someone who others look up to and that means constantly being more and doing more. I want to be a good soldier, not a good female soldier.

The debates about women in combat arms are long and energized. Many of them start and end with physical differences between men and women focusing on raw strength and percentage of lean body mass. Since Ranger School is advertised as the Army’s premier leadership school, I wanted to go to improve my military leadership skills. But Ranger School started off as an infantry school and maintains high physical fitness standards. Once I did some research and understood what those standards were, I didn’t see any reason that I should be denied access. I knew men with tabs that I could smoke in most physical contests. Guys that I beat in the gym and on the track attended and graduated. So in my mind, the issue of strength was a non-issue. But I needed to be ready, because failing physically meant that we’d never progress the conversation past the physical differences between genders.

Kenya's Counterterrorism Approach is Floundering

Peter Kirechu

August 4, 2016

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As Kenya inches dangerously close to shutting down the world’s largest refugee camp in Dabaab, the announced closure masks a calculated, yet disastrous parlay of legitimate domestic terrorism concerns for an expedient, yet flawed, solution that is unlikely to resolve the country’s security challenges. But as insecurity evolves into a bargaining currency for the governing elite, the United States’ partnership with an arguably capable East African partner will increasingly fall into worrying scrutiny.

Kenya is one of the largest recipients of U.S. security assistance in sub-Saharan Africa. Through both State and Defense Department accounts, the Kenyan government has received over $141 million in security assistance funds since 2010­—an amount that rose to $100 million in 2015 alone. Most of this financing is directed towards counterterrorism support, but despite substantial increases in training and equipment, concerns abound with woeful professionalism in Kenya’s military and security forces. Both security institutions are hampered by persistent allegations of human rights violations and entrenched corruption—both to the detriment of Kenya’s national security, and the general well-being of Kenya’s Somali population.

In the past decade, the United States has helped bolster Kenya’s domestic security and military capacity, assisting in the development of the National Intelligence Service­—Kenya’s domestic and foreign intelligence service—the General Service Unit, a paramilitary reserve unit primarily deployed to respond to civil disorders, and the Anti-Terror Police Unit (ATPU)—a specialized police unit tasked with counterterror responses. These domestic security and military services serve at the forefront of Kenya’s counterterrorism efforts against a capable enemy in Al Shabaab.