Report From ‘The Jungle’ Refugee Camp In Calais, France – OpEd

BY SABIA RIGBY 

OCTOBER 26, 2016

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“I was in jail with a Libyan man, his friends came and broke into the jail and let us go, too. There was fighting everywhere. You pray to be in jail with Libyans, because they do not recognize the current government, they will do what they want.” (spoken by a refugee in “the Jungle”)

Forty-two percent of the people who came to the Jungle are from warring parts of Sudan and South Sudan; thirty-two percent are from Afghanistan. Others are from Syria, Yemen, Iraqi Kurdistan, Pakistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Egypt, and more; they have crossed between 6 and 13 countries to arrive in Calais, with their final goal to reach the U.K. In Calais, it seems they are facing the hardest border to cross.

There are many who have died or been seriously injured in their attempts to cross the border to the U.K. One couple was trying to cross by train. Her boyfriend made it on; she leapt, wrapped her arms around him, but did not get her bottom half onto the train. She was cut in half. He was deeply traumatized by her tragic death. In another case, a brother and sister tried to cross to the U.K. by truck. They were both hit on the road; he died and she is in the hospital. Most people from the Jungle Camp who are in the hospital were wounded in accidents while trying to get into the U.K. Broken bones and deep cuts on arms, legs, and fingers are the most commonly suffered injuries. Volunteer teams have been visiting refugees; we have had as many as sixteen to visit each time, and during a normal week we visit twice a week. We take food and toiletries and, for those we have come to know, we try and bring a small gift. Last week we spent time in the Jungle relaying information to each community. First, the Calais government won the right to shut down any place of business in the Jungle: restaurants, barber shops, vegetable stalls, and cigarette shops. Second, anyone continuing to work in the businesses can and will be arrested. With the help of others from over twenty organizations, including L’Auberge des Immigrants, Secour Catholique, Refugee Youth Center and The Migrants’ Law Project, we shared pamphlets containing information about the legal rights each person has in case they do get arrested and or harassed. The legal rights information was translated and printed into Arabic, English, Amharic, Farsi and Pashtu.

Mosul And Aleppo: A Tale Of Two Cities – OpEd

By Gwynne Dyer* 
OCTOBER 26, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/26102016-mosul-and-aleppo-a-tale-of-two-cities-oped/

Two great sieges are getting underway in the Middle East, one in Mosul in Iraq and the other in Aleppo in Syria.

They have a great deal in common, including the fact that the attackers both depend heavily on foreign air power, but they are treated by most international media as though they were completely different events. How similar they are will become clearer with the passage of time.

Seventy years without a really major war have allowed us to develop a major dislike for killing civilians from the air.

Nobody on either side would have been the least bit reluctant to blast Aleppo or Mosul into oblivion in 1945 if it served their strategic purposes, but moral tastes have changed.

Every civilian death from bombing in Iraq and Syria — but not the thousands of other civilian casualties each month — is therefore publicly catalogued and condemned.

The Russians are taking enormous criticism over their bombing of the rebel-held eastern part of Aleppo (although the indiscriminate “barrel bombs” are the work of the Syrian air force, not the Russians).

The US air force has been much more careful about its bombing around Mosul so far, but it too will end up having to choose between bombing the city heavily and seeing the Iraqi government’s attack fail.

One Click At A Time: The Change Agents Of The Middle East – OpEd

By Nadia Oweidat*
OCTOBER 27, 2016

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(FPRI) — The Arabic-speaking world, extending from Morocco in the east to Oman in the west, is changing rapidly. The Arab Spring was but the first chapter of this change. Despite ongoing violence in Syria, Libya, and elsewhere, in much of the Arab world the most powerful force for change is nonviolent activism. Millions of people are pursuing creative, peaceful ways to effect political change, even as both extremists and dictators, continue to assert their power using their proven means: violence.

Take the example of Aramram, a Jordanian WebTV platform. Its videos provide unprecedented civic education for young Jordanians, in easy-to-follow language. It also provides videos on economic issues. In one of their programs called, “209 King Hussein Street,” named after the address of the Parliament building, they discuss every bill proposed or passed by the members of the parliament, acting as a Jordanian C-SPAN. While this doesn’t raise an eyebrow in America, for a country where most votes are cast to support one’s tribe or religious affiliation, this kind of civic education aims at fundamentally changing voting patterns and creating, for the first time, a state-based citizen, rather than a tribal citizen, with expectations of an accountable government. Aramram’s productions meet a hunger for such knowledge as their videos have been viewed millions of people and shared by hundreds of thousands. For a small country like Jordan, that is a significant percentage of the country.

Or take the example of Sami al-Hourani, a brilliant Jordanian medical doctor who decided to leave a fellowship at Stanford University to dedicate his time to a platform he created to help his fellow young men and women find opportunities around the world for training and fellowships. His website, Fursa,Arabic for opportunity, receives more than ten thousand visitors a day. His Facebook page is even more popular. He is not stopping there. Among other initiatives he created is Fadfid, which means vent in Arabic. He distributed blank pieces of white paper to young men and women in Jordan and asked them to list their grievances. He then translated these into charts and data, an effortless task for someone who started coding in seventh grade. His goal is to find creative solutions for these grievances, as he did with Fursa.

Iran’s Dream Of Becoming Aviation Transit Regional Hub – Analysis

BY IRAN REVIEW 

OCTOBER 27, 2016

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In February, immediately after the implementation of the nuclear deal, dubbed as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran placed orders to purchase dozens of long-distance European jets in a bid to renew its commercial air fleet. The country announced plans to invest $27 billion in an airline fleet capable of taking on the region’s super carriers.

The orders, which included Airbus A380, the world’s largest jetliner, positioned Tehran as a potential long-term transit center between East and West to rival regional hubs such as Dubai, air officials and analysts said, according to Reuters. Observers said it sent a political warning to Iran’s neighbors not to ignore the Islamic Republic’s emergence from isolation.

Iranian officials openly called for the revival of the country’s historical position as a center for communications in the region, an emphasis that is in retrospect reminiscent of Iran’s position in taking back its pre-sanctions share from oil markets.

Iran’s path to the purchases appeared to be one with lots of ifs and buts. However, the US Treasury Department recently loosened the grip on Iran, even though several months late, allowing Tehran to finalize agreed purchases even from Boeing.

A number of international airlines are also rushing to resume flights to Iran in the hope to tap into increasing opportunities in the country after the recent lifting of sanctions.

Last week, KLM resumed flights from Amsterdam to Tehran after a three-year halt. The resumption, part of a planned Air France-KLM comeback, includes four return flights per week. Paris-Tehran flights have also been resumed much earlier than the previously scheduled date in January.

Obama’s Middle East: Fettering And Collusion – OpEd

By Eyad Abu Shakra*
OCTOBER 28, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/28102016-obamas-middle-east-fettering-and-collusion-oped/

For President Barack Obama to enjoy around 55% support among Americans according to the latest polls, a few weeks before the election of the new president, is a very interesting phenomenon. It is interesting especially as America’s international credibility wanes and prestige tumbles to the extent that a Yemeni militia subservient to Iran managed to target one of its navy’s ships three times within the space of a few days.

The ends of US presidential terms, more so the penultimate and last terms, usually point to voters getting tired of the boss in the White House. Even ‘ultra-charismatic’ presidents like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton failed to achieve the popularity of Obama near the end of their sojourns in the Oval Office. Indeed, the 55% figure is much higher than the figures achieved by either the Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. So what is the “secret” behind Obama’s continuing popularity within America, while losing his glitter abroad, even reaching unprecedented lows in regions like the Middle East?

Most likely, there are two very important reasons. The first is that Obama has succeeded in securing a social and economic ‘safety net’ inside America, mainly in the fields of healthcare, employment, economic upturn and improvement in living conditions after the pains suffered by ordinary Americans during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. In democracies, it is a well-known fact that a voter passes judgement on his/her elected leaders based on how they directly affect his/her direct interests, regardless of anything else.

Replacing Political Slanders With Arabic And Hebrew Wisdom – OpEd

BY RABBI ALLEN S. MALLER 

OCTOBER 28, 2016

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On October 26, 2016 UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee adopted a controversial resolution that ignores Jewish and Christian ties to Jerusalem’s Temple Mount; Draft Resolution 40COM 7A.13, entitled “Old City of Jerusalem and its Walls,” by a ‘majority’ of 10 countries voting in favor, eight abstaining and two opposing the text. Just ten “yes” votes out of the 20 members were needed for the resolution to pass.

While the UNESCO resolution on Jerusalem totally ignores any Jewish or Christian connection to the Temple Mount, what should worry us most is its affirmation of a paranoid conspiracy theory holding that Jews are plotting to harm Islamic holy sites. The UNESCO resolution “condemns the escalating Israeli aggressions” against “Muslims’ access to their holy site Al-Aqsa,” “deplores the continuous storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque/Al-Haram Al-Sharif by Israeli right-wing extremists,” and “deeply decries the continuous Israeli aggressions” committed by “the so-called ‘Israeli antiquities’ officials.”

There’s a long history to Palestinian claims that Jews, Zionists or Israelis are threatening Al-Aqsa. Such claims are part rallying cry, and part conspiracy theory. The power of this lie, both in inciting violence as well as mobilizing Arab and Muslim public opinion, was first understood in the 1920s by the Mufti of Jerusalem (and future Nazi collaborator) Haj Amin al-Husseini.

He saw Al-Aqsa as a way of turning a local conflict into a regional, religious, and even global conflict. Claims that Jews were seeking to harm Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem in 1928 sparked a wave of Arab violence against Jews, culminating in the Hebron massacre of 67 Jews a few months later.

The War On UNESCO: Al-Aqsa Mosque Is Palestinian And East Jerusalem Is Illegally Occupied – OpEd

BY RAMZY BAROUD 

OCTOBER 28, 2016

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Did Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, actually read the full text of the UNESCO resolution on Palestine and Israel, before he raved with anger?

“I think this is a mistaken, inconceivable resolution,” he said.

“It is not possible to continue with these resolutions at the UN and UNESCO that aim to attack Israel. It is shocking and I have ordered that we stop taking this position (his country’s abstention) even if it means diverging from the position taken by the rest of Europe,” he added.

Renzi, who became Prime Minister in 2014 at the relatively young age of 39 knows exactly how the game is played. In order to win favor with Washington, he must first please Tel Aviv.

His country has abstained from the October 12 vote on a resolution that condemns Israel’s violations of the cultural and legal status of Occupied East Jerusalem. This decision has ignited the ire of Israeli Ambassador to Rome, Ofer Zaks, who riled up the Jewish community in Italy to protest the abstention. Renzi, in turn, was converted into a champion of the ‘Temple Mount’, the name Israel uses to describe the Palestinian Muslim holy site.

Renzi cravenly went on damage control mode without truly understanding the nature of the resolution, which merely condemned Israel’s obvious violations of international law, and only calls for Israel to respect the status of Palestinian culture in the occupied city.

Ukrainian Hackers Break Into Computer of Top Putin Aide

Anna Arutunyan

October 27, 2016

Top Putin aide hacked: Proxy cyberwar suspected

MOSCOW — A gigabyte of leaked emails this week to a top aide of Russian President Vladimir Putin reveal direct political and financial ties with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Putin has consistently denied any connection to the separatists, whether with military or financial support. Fighting has raged in eastern Ukraine for two years, since rebels in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions proclaimed their independence from Ukraine and sought to join Russia. More than 9,600 people have been killed.

A Ukrainian group calling itself CyberHunta hacked into the account of an assistant to presidential aide Vladislav Surkov and uploaded more than 2,000 emails this week. Surkov, although under sanctions for his role in the separatist conflict, traveled this month to Berlin alongside Putin for a summit on Ukraine.

The hacked emails include a June 2014 list of casualties from the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) in eastern Ukraine, sent by then-chairman, Denis Pushilin. Another email from Pushilin that same month listed expenses to set up DNR’s Ministry of Information.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the emails as fake in comments to Russian news agencies, saying that Surkov does not use email. But Ukraine’s National Security Service said Wednesday that the emails were real.

The leaks followed reports from U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia was responsible for a series of hacks on American officials. Some analysts suggested the Surkov leaks could be a retaliation.

A New Poll Shows America's Reluctance for New Foreign Adventures

Daniel R. DePetris

October 27, 2016

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Republicans and Democrats disagree on pretty much everything, but there is one broad policy area where the GOP and Democratic establishments are actually more in tune with one another than commonly thought when it comes to foreign policy. The men and women who have dominated the foreign-policy conversation for the last three administrations—statesmen and stateswomen like Madeleine Albright, Samantha Power, the late Richard Holbrooke, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz—have proven to be strong proponents of the theory of American exceptionalism.

The narrative is as basic as it is alluring: as the strongest and most powerful country in the world and as the beacon of hope and democracy for those struggling for freedom and justice, only the United States has the ability to provide the resources, political will and strength to solve problems. If the United States doesn’t them, nobody else will. Dictators need to be kept in check, if not overthrown; the Responsibility to Protect doctrine is an inalienable component of being an American; averting atrocities and crimes against humanity need to be prevented; the stability of the world is contingent on the spread of democratic values and free-market principles; and the United States is the sole guarantor of international peace and security.

A new and comprehensive poll conducted by the Charles Koch Institute and the Center for the National Interest, however, suggests that these elite convictions are not necessarily shared by much of the American public. On issue after issue—from infrastructure to jobs, from tax rates to terrorism—the public wants to focus on practical measures that directly impact their lives. Military intervention abroad is not considered to be one of them. Accordingly, the poll reveals just how wide the gap has become between the foreign-policy establishment in Washington (what Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes famously called “the Blob”) and average Americans. 

Taiwan Should Be a Partner in Addressing Climate Change

Stanley Kao

October 27, 2016

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The Paris Climate Agreement, negotiated within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions starting in the year 2020, was adopted by consensus on December 12, 2015. The agreement will take effect on November 4, after more than eighty of the 197 parties to the treaty to date have submitted their instruments of ratification to the United Nations, accounting in total for more than 55 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions as a necessary threshold. This is a promising move forward in international efforts to mitigate the grave impact of climate change.

The 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) to the UNFCCC is scheduled to convene from November 7 to 18 in Marrakech, Morocco. It is the crucial next step for governments to operationalize the Paris Agreement.

Taiwan, as the fifth-largest economy in Asia and the 22nd largest in the world, should have a place at the table in Marrakech. Taiwan cannot be left as a mere spectator to a problem which encompasses the entire international community. Its voice must be heard in the councils where viable solutions are vetted and adopted.

Global warming and the El Nino phenomenon have contributed to record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events around the globe. Dangerous weather conditions were recently seen in the United States as well, with historic flooding in Louisiana, tropical storms hitting Hawaii, and Hurricane Matthew causing deaths and destruction in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

The Clumsy Case for U.S. Intervention in Syria

John Allen Gay

October 27, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-clumsy-case-us-intervention-syria-18209?page=show

Those who advocate a deeper U.S. intervention in Syria against Bashar al-Assad’s regime have a difficult case to make. The risk that such an intervention would lead to a serious showdown with Russia is real. Russian air, land and naval forces are all present in Syria, meaning there is a real chance American strikes would inadvertently kill Russian personnel or destroy their equipment. Even if this doesn’t happen, Russia surely won’t be happy with an attack on its ally, and may take steps to respond, in Syria or elsewhere. A direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed great power would be the most serious crisis in U.S. national security since the end of the Cold War. Intervention advocates owe it to the public to take these concerns into account, and show that in spite of them, war is still the best choice. Specifically, they need to prevail on three points:

• First, they must explain how they intend to control the risks of confrontation with Russia over Syria in the wake of a U.S. attack, particularly if Russia takes steps to escalate.

• Second, they must identify vital U.S. interests at stake in Syria that justify taking such risks, especially given the chance that Russia will act against U.S. interests elsewhere.

• Third, they must show that intervention will be effective in defending those interests.

An argument that fails on any of these three points needs to go back to the drawing board, as an intervention that is ineffective, that risks uncontrolled escalation, or that is not tied to vital American interests is simply not worth the danger.

Missing Issues From US 2016 Presidential Debates – OpEd

BY DR. ABDUL RUFF 

OCTOBER 27, 2016

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Americans will vote November 8 to decide who will be the country’s next president to lead the nation to a peaceful path without wars and bloodbaths. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have presented a crude irony to the poll that American people have been provided with a choice between not only the two most unpopular candidates, but also the two most reactionary candidates in modern history.

The usual battle for the White House by two-party system is nearing the end point. World is damn sure that irrespective of who win the battle would continue the Bushdom agenda of permanent war on Islam by using many Muslim rulers like Syrian leader Assad.

With capitalism facing serious crakes globally, (notwithstanding the strenuous efforts by World bank and IMF to promote capitalism), imperialism could face obstructions and so US president would strive hard to promote both capitalism and imperialism to phase out the “enemies” and stabilize the “world order” to benefit these anti-humanity features on a permanent basis.

Ritualistic performance?

“They came, performed and disappeared”- this description fits well for the US presidential candidates -Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump – who joined the three “joint” debates on the worthiness of their candidature.

Neither the Republican nor the Democratic person has any real vision about USA but in public mudslinging they have outsmarted the third world leaders. When the elected presidents are not duty bound to fulfill all their promises, pledges and programs, now the empty debates make the life easy for the next President too as he or she can be assured of space in NATO permanent war project on Islam for securing energy resources and for reducing Islamic populations. Pentagon led NATO terror wars can be a perfect tool for the president to justify all their illegal actions at home.

Syria, Where Foreign Involvements Are Barring Meaningful Solution – OpEd

BY BAHAUDDIN FOIZEE 

OCTOBER 27, 2016

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Syrians have been passing five consecutive years under fierce conflict and there is yet no sign of peace.

However, the failed meetings and the “talk-shop” conferences among local and regional parties led by the global powers have been continuing in usual intervals. Questions arose as to how long will it take to reach “peace”? How much more blood will be spilled? How many refugees had to risk their lives into Europe? How many more meetings and conferences in lavish vicinities are required to agree to life by disagreeing deaths?

Meetings, conferences and ceasefire-agreements have been taking place since the beginning of Syrian war, without any success. Last December (2015), the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) endorsed a road map for a peace process in Syria, adopting unanimously the resolution 2254 (2015). The resolution called for an immediate ceasefire, endorsing a non-sectarian government in Syria within “6 months”, and set a schedule and process for the drafting of a new Constitution. The resolution also endorsed for UN-monitored elections within “18 months” pursuant to the new Constitution, reiterating the call for the Syrian people to decide the future of Syria.

However, although 10 months have already gone-by since the UN resolution, the formation of the said non-sectarian government in Syria still seems far away. Furthermore, it appears from the current conflict-rattled Syrian scenario that the expected new Constitution and the UN-monitored elections that were projected in the abovementioned UN resolution are just too ambitious to be taken seriously, atleast not in near future.

PROLONGED SYRIAN WAR

The Syrian civilian mass have been suffering a prolonged brutal war. The prolonging of the war was possible because of certain factors: (i) almost all sides have foreign support in order to prolong the war, (ii) the sides are well matched and (iii) each faction has sufficient willpower and resources to continue the war for a longer period.

Thailand: ‘Sufficiency Economics’ King Bhumibol’s Best Legacy – Analysis

By Lim Kooi Fong* 
OCTOBER 27, 2016

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One of the most enduring images of the late Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej is that he is almost always seen with a camera around his neck or in his hand during his time visiting regions within Thailand, checking on projects, which he personally supported and followed up.For over 70 years of his reign,

Thailand’s much loved monarch kept a promise – the promise that he would reign with righteousness for the benefit and happiness of the Siamese people.

In 1997 when Thailand suffered its worst economic crisis in living memory, he came up with his now trademark ‘Sufficiency Economics’ theory, based on Buddhist principles to help alleviate the suffering of his people – especially the mental condition. The theory was based on the experience of over 40 years in helping his people to adopt a sustainable development model.

As of 1998, there were 2,159 royal development projects initiated by the King and implemented throughout the country. Most of the projects are aimed at improving the living conditions of his subjects, particularly those in the remote rural areas.

Sometimes he would use his own funds in the early stages to help a project get off the ground. In 1988, he established the Chaipattana Foundation to fund and help in accelerating rural development projects that are beneficial to the people and the country as a whole.

The off-shoot of his passion for the deprived sections of the Thai people is his ‘New Theory’ in land management and the development of water sources for agricultural purposes. The ‘New Theory’ was a simple formula: 30-30-30-10.

Russia Energy Profile: Largest Producer Of Crude Oil – Analysis

BY EIA 

OCTOBER 27, 2016

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Russia is a major producer and exporter of oil and natural gas. Russia’s economic growth is driven by energy exports, given its high oil and natural gas production. Oil and natural gas revenues accounted for 43% of Russia’s federal budget revenues in 2015.1

Russia was the world’s largest producer of crude oil including lease condensate and the third-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids (after Saudi Arabia and the United States) in 2015, with average liquids production of 11.0 million barrels per day (b/d). Russia was the second-largest producer of dry natural gas in 2015 (second to the United States), producing 22.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), according to Russian Energy Ministry data.2

Russia and Europe are interdependent in terms of energy. Europe is dependent on Russia as a source of supply for both oil and natural gas, with almost 30% of European Union crude imports and more than 30% of natural gas imports coming from Russia in 2015. Russia is dependent on Europe as a market for its oil and natural gas and the revenues those exports generate. In 2015, almost 60% of Russia’s crude exports and more than 75% of Russia’s natural gas exports went to Europe.3

Russia is the third-largest generator of nuclear power in the world and has the fifth-largest installed nuclear capacity. With seven nuclear reactors currently under construction, Russia is second to China, in terms of number of reactors under construction as of August 2016.4

The Made-in-America Global Security and Economic System Still Serves U.S. Interests

by Howard J. Shatz and David A. Shlapak

October 26, 2016

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When the new president takes office next January, a world of troubles awaits. Violent extremism, irresponsible adventurism by China, an aggressive and authoritarian Russia, economic uncertainty and racial unrest at home, to name a few issues, will give no peace to the White House's new occupant, Democrat or Republican.

The new president will also inherit a global system of security and economic institutions.

There is no doubt this system has been good for the world, producing 70 years without a great power war—the longest such stretch in modern history—a standard of living in the West that is the highest ever achieved, and billions lifted out of poverty around the globe.

But less remarked upon is the fact that it has also been good for America.

This system has been good for the world, producing 70 years without a great power war.

Carefully built and tended following the destruction and horror of World War II, the system has kept America out of devastating foreign wars in Europe and Asia. It has enabled Americans to attain lifestyles that the last generation that fought a global war could never have imagined as they suffered horrific casualties at Iwo Jima or wondered if they would survive the Battle of the Bulge.

Even less remarked upon is that the global system was designed by and made in America. The United States built it and has sought to sustain and expand it, joined in partnership with a voluntary association of a large and diverse array of the richest, freest, most advanced countries in history, all of which find it in their interest to work with the United States. Because of it, the United States enjoys a remarkable position of power and possibilities.

What Ukraine Urgently Needs to Defend Itself

by Andrew Radin and Lynn E. Davis

October 16, 2016

http://www.rand.org/blog/2016/10/what-ukraine-urgently-needs-to-defend-itself.html

Ukrainian servicemen take part in a rehearsal for the Independence Day military parade in Kiev, August 19, 2016

After Russian aggression in Crimea and Russia's support for the separatist forces in eastern Ukraine, there are many who believe the United States should take further action to help Ukraine defend itself.

Indeed, since 2014, the United States has provided approximately $600 million in security assistance to Ukraine, among other forms of aid.

After Russian military activities in Syria, there are reports that European and U.S. officials will discuss new sanctions against Russia during meetings next week. Still, much of the public debate in the United States on Ukraine focuses on the question of whether or not to provide lethal aid. The issue of lethal aid is an important one, given the risk of Russian escalation and uncertain U.S. commitment to Ukraine's defense.

However, analysis of Ukraine's capabilities and of the challenges it faces points to the potential of U.S. support for fundamental reform of the country's security sector.

Analysis points to the potential of U.S. support for fundamental reform of Ukraine's security sector.

A recently published RAND study, done for the Office of the President of Ukraine, analyzed Ukraine's security and defense sector from the ground up and emphasized the need for and potential impact of reform in Ukraine's security institutions.

Russia’s Admiral Diplomacy – OpEd

By Saeed Davar*
OCTOBER 28, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/28102016-russias-admiral-diplomacy-oped/

Russians have attracted a lot of attention in recent months.

After Moscow’s surprising show of force in Ukraine and Crimea, Russians have now taken their northern and Baltic fleets into the Mediterranean in order to defend their interests in Syria. Russia’s aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which they had already said would remain in Murmansk for overhauls until 2017, along with Peter the Great battlecruiser, Severomorsk destroyer, Vice-Admiral Kulakov destroyer, and five other logistical vessels have started a move, which has stirred excessive sensitivity of NATO.

If the United States’ estimate that there are 39 battleships in Russia’s Northern Fleet is accepted, it must be said that by transferring all its Northern Fleet, that is, 39 ships, and part of the Balkan Fleet, which is the oldest marine fleet of Russia, to the Mediterranean, Moscow has been trying to lay emphasis on the extraordinary importance that its attaches to Syria. Of course, it is not logical for Russia to deplete all its northern parts of warships and risk a major void in its defense shield, which would provide the United States with a good opportunity to infiltrate those parts. So, we assume that Moscow has dispatched the aforementioned eight vessels to the Mediterranean.

Here, I must emphasize that according to NATO’s estimate, Russia’s Northern Fleet consists of 45 atomic submarines, some of which may have been dispatched to Syria along with the above fleet. In addition, it must be noted that it is not only the situation in Syria that has made Moscow embark on such remarkable marine shift, but the need to defend comprehensive national security interests of Russia in the most sensitive region of the world should be considered as the most important strategic reason for Kremlin to do so, because it indirectly affects Russians’ interests across the globe.

Four Fallacies About Trade And Globalization – Analysis

By Ajai Gaur and Ram Mudambi* 
OCTOBER 28, 2016

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Fear of trade overlooks that most value creation in advanced economies is based on services, not manufacturing.

Trade typically figures prominently in US presidential election, and 2016 is no exception. While campaigning, politicians tend to adopt anti-international business positions that are theoretically unsound and lack empirical evidence.

Four fallacies underline these common political arguments.

Fallacy 1: Manufacturing jobs are the basis of American prosperity.

Fallacy 2: Imports make us poorer.

Fallacy 3: Success of foreign firms always helps foreign countries, success of US firms always helps the US economy.

Fallacy 4: To export, firms must sell to buyers in foreign countries.

The manufacturing fallacy: Since 1980, elections have included clarion calls to bring manufacturing jobs back to America. President Barack Obama focused on reviving the manufacturing sector, and in the current election, Donald Trump vows to revitalize manufacturing to “reclaim millions of American jobs” while Hillary Clinton has promoted a “make it in America” strategy on the stump.

Yet manufacturing continues to shrink as a percentage of total employment. By some estimates, while US manufacturing output increased sixfold between 1950 and 2008, the share of manufacturing jobs as a percentage of all jobs decreased from about 30 percent to 10 percent. The reduction in the share of manufacturing jobs despite a significant increase in manufacturing output is primarily due to tremendous productivity gains since World War II, stemming from continual innovations in technology and management practices. This is neither new nor unique to the US. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the share of US farm sector employment fell from 90 percent to about 10 percent between 1790 and 1950. This was due to increased use of heavy machinery and automation, and a simultaneous migration of labor from the farm sector to the manufacturing and service sectors. Furthermore, all major industrialized nations have experienced job losses in the manufacturing sector.

UN Resolution To Outlaw Nuclear Weapons Hailed – Analysis

By J Nastranis

OCTOBER 28, 2016

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Nuclear disarmament campaigners have hailed the landmark resolution adopted by the United Nations on October 27 for launching negotiations in 2017 on a legally binding treaty outlawing nuclear weapons. The resolution heralds an end to two decades of paralysis in multilateral nuclear disarmament efforts.

In a historic move, at a meeting of the First Committee of the UN General Assembly, which deals with disarmament and international security, 123 member states of the UN voted in favour of the resolution, 38 voted against and 16 abstained.

The resolution will set up a UN conference beginning in March 2017, open to all member states, to negotiate a “legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons, leading towards their total elimination”. The negotiations will continue in June and July.

There are more than 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, mostly in the arsenals of just two nations: the United States and Russia. Seven other nations possess nuclear weapons: Britain, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

Most of the nine nuclear-armed nations voted against the UN resolution. Many of their allies, including those in Europe that host nuclear weapons on their territory as part of a NATO arrangement, also failed to support the resolution.

But the nations of Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and the Pacific voted overwhelmingly in favour of the resolution, and are likely to be key players at the negotiating conference in New York in 2017.

Losing the Philippines Won't Imperil U.S. Interests in Asia

Ted Galen Carpenter

October 27, 2016

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Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte continues to annoy and alarm U.S. officials and members of the American foreign-policy establishment. His repudiation of the alliance with the United States, combined with a strategic rapprochement with China, has resulted in a lucrative payoff for his regime. Beijing is providing the Philippines with an aid package worth $24 billion. The implicit quid pro quo is that Manila will back away from its territorial claims in the South China Sea—a move that would remove one especially pesky challenger to Beijing’s own ambitious claims.

Duterte has subsequently tried to walk back some of his dramatic moves. He now insists that his much-touted “separation” from the United States was only from U.S. foreign policy, not a severance of the entire relationship. Apparently he would still like his country to enjoy the protection of the U.S. military alliance in the event of trouble and to preserve a vital trading relationship with America. Duterte also expressed his hope that Filipino fishing crews might again be able to occupy a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, although one should be cautious about placing a large wager on Chinese receptivity to that suggestion.

The reaction in the U.S. foreign-policy community to Duterte’s behavior has been a mixture of anger and alarm. Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Max Boot expresses an extreme version of the latter emotion, terming Duterte’s tilt to China as nothing short of a “disaster” for the United States. That kind of hysteria is, to put it mildly, an overreaction. Yet the conventional wisdom is scarcely better. American officials and most outside analysts seem to believe that, as annoying as Duterte’s flirtation with China (as well as his bloody domestic conduct) has been, the United States needs to grin and bear it. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, for example, steadfastly confirms that the alliance with Manila is “ironclad.” Cutting the Philippines loose would supposedly undermine U.S. credibility throughout East Asia, perhaps fatally.

CLINTON-CARTWRIGHT COMPARISONS DON’T HOLD UP

JAMES JOYNER AND BUTCH BRACKNELL

OCTOBER 27, 2016

http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/clinton-cartwright-comparisons-dont-hold-up/

In the third and, thankfully, final presidential debate of the 2016 cycle, Republican nominee Donald Trump doubled down on his contention that his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, “should never have been allowed to run for the presidency based on what she did with e-mails and so many other things.” He had some new ammunition: a former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, retired Marine General James “Hoss” Cartwright, had just been criminally charged in relation to leaking classified information. While there are surface similarities, however, the cases are quite different.

Trump charged,

We have a great general, four-star general, today you read it in all the papers going to potentially serve five years in jail for lying to the FBI, one lie. She’s lied hundreds of times to the people, to Congress, and to the FBI. He’s going to probably go to jail. This is a four-star general, and she gets away with it and she can run for the presidency of the United States?

Josh Rogin of The Washington Post took a similar position in an article headlined “General Cartwright is paying the price for Hillary Clinton’s sins.” He contends, “The FBI’s handling of the case stands in stark contrast to its treatment of Hillary Clinton and retired General David Petraeus — and it reeks of political considerations.”

He cites Steven Aftergood, director of the Project on Government Secrecy at the Federation of American Scientists, who argues, “There is a lack of proportion just based on the facts that one figure, Cartwright, is getting severely punished and others so far have escaped the process,” adding, “He is being singled out for prosecution and public humiliation. It’s an implicit rebuttal to those who argued that other senior officials such as Clinton or Petraeus got off scott free or got too light of a sentence.”

Cartwright’s sentencing reportedly will not take place until January 17, making a full comparison difficult. Still, the cases are sufficiently different to make Trump and Aftergood wrong on the merits.

The End Of Interventionism? – OpEd

BY DANIEL MCADAMS 

OCTOBER 27, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/27102016-the-end-of-interventionism-oped/

Looking over the global landscape, the areas most touched by US interventionist foreign policy are objectively in the worst, most desperate shape. The mainstream media will report that the current disaster in Syria came about because the people decided to stand up to a cruel dictator in the “Arab Spring” that swept through the greater Middle East in 2011, and that the dictator cracked down so hard it caused the violence to spin out of control. We know, of course, that is not the whole story. The US had been involved in fomenting unrest in Syria at least five years or more before violence broke out. A Wikileaks-released cable from 2006 shows how hard the US Embassy in Damascus was working to figure out a way to overthrow the government. Shortly after the partially manufactured protests devolved into violence, the CIA moved in and began arming (and importing) rebels to finish the deed. In five years the country has been destroyed, hundreds of thousands killed, millions left without homes.

Likewise, even most critics of the 2003 US attack on Iraq will try to salvage the philosophy of interventionism by claiming the only reason democracy hasn’t broken out is that the US military didn’t occupy the country long enough! As if being occupied by a foreign power is the route to responsible governance and the development of civil society!

There are too many other examples to mention, even little-discussed areas like Somalia and Nigeria — with the latter falling prey to a radical Islamist gang, Boko Haram, that benefitted from a region awash in weapons after the US-led attack on Libya opened the weapons depots.