ISIS: Less Territory, More Dangerous

Mehmet Nesip Ogun

November 17, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-less-territory-more-dangerous-18439

With the liberation of Mosul likely in weeks or months, even ISIS seems to agree it will soon lose most or all of its territory in Iraq, and possibly Syria. Unfortunately, this may just be the beginning—not the end—of the global threat posed by ISIS. How do we know this? The answer is readily available in the group’s publications. As Sun Tzu explained long ago, the importance of knowing your enemy and yourself will bring you success. Could we really comprehend the mindset and ideology of ISIS? It is not just the group’s ideology that we should be concerned about; it is continued violence against the entire world.

The major difference between ISIS and other terrorist organizations (including the broader Al Qaeda) is that in 2014, ISIS publicly declared a caliphate, establishing a de facto state in Mosul and Raqqa. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s invitation to Muslims all over the world to “migrate” to the abode of Islam has led more than thirty-five thousand foreign terrorist fighters to enter Syrian and Iraqi territory.

Through study and analysis of ISIS publications, we have an opportunity to analyze ISIS’s end-state goals. In this respect, ISIS has been extensively publishing magazines and producing videos and tapes in several languages. Al-Hayat Media Center is their main media outlet and distributor. ISIS publishes Dabiq and Rumiyah (Rome) in English, Istok in Russian, Dar al-Islam in French, Konstantiniyye in Turkish and individual publications in English, such as “How to Survive in the West: A Mujahid’s Guide.” ISIS is also distributing selected videos from so-called provinces of the Islamic State. It should be clearly noted that ISIS continues to produce and publish propaganda whether or not it loses territory.

Europeans Will Now Decide What Europe Will Be

By Josef Janning

November 17, 2016

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This article was created in collaboration with the European Council on Foreign Relations. Josef Janning is the head of ECFR's Berlin office. The views expressed here are the author's own.

Despite his celebration this weekend with British politician Nigel Farage -- in a Trump Tower golden elevator, no less -- the president-elect of the United States is not an anti-European in the sense we in Europe are most familiar with.


And despite his “Brexit plus, plus, plus” predictions, Donald Trump’s presidency does not necessarily presage an attempt to disrupt or to destroy European integration. Trump is no Farage or Marine Le Pen. In fact, President Trump will care little about Europe and whether it rises or falls. What Trump wants is to right the imbalance between the commitments and returns he sees in the United States’ foreign relations. Like the now-wealthy nations in East Asia, EU countries fit Trump’s dictum about self-defense and American support: The United States should not provide to them what they could afford themselves.

What this means is that what Europe is to become will be for the Europeans to decide.

This could hardly be news to European policymakers. No president has ever spelled out the link between burden-sharing and the U.S. security assurance in such drastic terms as has Donald Trump, but several have looked at the issue in similar ways, particularly since the demise of the Soviet Union. Other presidents have muted their criticism because of the value of U.S.-led alliance systems to America’s global role. Now, the precondition for partnership with the United States will be Europe's ability to defend itself, and no longer its inability to do so.

The Trump Doctrine

By PATRICK J. BUCHANAN

November 15, 2016

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/the-trump-doctrine/

However Donald Trump came upon the foreign policy views he espoused, they were as crucial to his election as his views on trade and the border.

Yet those views are hemlock to the GOP foreign policy elite and the liberal Democratic interventionists of the Acela Corridor.

Trump promised an “America First” foreign policy rooted in the national interest, not in nostalgia. The neocons insist that every Cold War and post-Cold War commitment be maintained, in perpetuity.

On Sunday’s “60 Minutes,” Trump said: “You know, we’ve been fighting this war for 15 years. … We’ve spent $6 trillion in the Middle East, $6 trillion — we could have rebuilt our country twice. And you look at our roads and our bridges and our tunnels … and our airports are … obsolete.”

Yet the War Party has not had enough of war, not nearly.

They want to confront Vladimir Putin, somewhere, anywhere. They want to send U.S. troops to the eastern Baltic. They want to send weapons to Kiev to fight Russia in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.

They want to establish a no-fly zone and shoot down Syrian and Russian planes that violate it, acts of war Congress never authorized.

They want to trash the Iran nuclear deal, though all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies told us, with high confidence, in 2007 and 2011, Iran did not even have a nuclear weapons program.

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL BE HAWKISH

BENJAMIN H. FRIEDMAN

NOVEMBER 18, 2016

http://warontherocks.com/2016/11/the-trump-administration-will-be-hawkish/

Donald Trump’s presidential transition is in transition. With Chris Christie and Mike Rogers out, Trump loyalistsbickering with Republican establishment types, a purge of lobbyists,and a president-elect known for helter-skeltermanagement, the incoming administration’s policy direction remains unclear. That’s especially true of foreign policy, the area where candidate Trump was most at odds with GOP orthodoxy.

That said, I predict, in contrast with many in Washington, that Trump’s presidency will prove conventionally hawkish. Trump is likely to jettison his vaguely non-interventionist campaign rhetoric, make nice with allies, and maintain tense relations with Russia and China. He’ll support the current wars and may start more.

That outcome would be a relief to Washington’s foreign policy establishment, which fears Trump’s isolationist tendencies and largely supported Hillary Clinton. But anyone hoping for a more restrained and peaceful foreign policy should be worried by an interventionist President Trump with the weight of U.S. military power behind him.

Trump inherits U.S. wars that span seven foreign nations and powers to start new ones at his discretion. He’ll command military forces committed by treaty to defend more than 50 nations, which requires threatening war on their behalf. Contrary to Trump’s claims that U.S. armed forces are a “disaster” and in “shambles,” they remain far superior to all others and capable of quickly delivering mass destruction virtually anywhere.

Trump’s lack of experience in public office, ignorance about foreign policy, and penchant for shifting positions makes it tough to predict how he’ll manage these responsibilities. But his personality, positions, and the politics he’ll face as president-elect give reasons to doubt that his administration will take an isolationist turn away from wars and allies.

Don't Let the DC 'Blob' Guide Trump's Foreign Policy

Gordon AdamsRichard Sokolsky

November 17, 2016

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Donald Trump made many statements about foreign policy during his campaign, some dangerous, some promising. The latter, if he acts on them, could bring about the most profound change in American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War: a U.S. reluctance to use force to topple governments, influence the outcome of civil wars, and promote democracy and human rights. The appointments he makes, because they risk producing the same foreign policy disasters previous presidents have experienced, could easily sidetrack these inclinations. The members of the foreign-policy establishment will be certain to try.

Nearly twenty years ago, in testimony before Congress, then secretary of state George Shultz offered a rare window into the inner workings of the Washington foreign-policy establishment. He told members of Congress, “Nothing ever gets settled in this town. It’s not like running a company or even a university. It’s a seething debating society in which the debate never stops, in which people never give up, including me, and that’s the atmosphere in which you administer.”

President Obama called the foreign-policy establishment “the Blob.” He was critical of the playbook it wanted to use, which invariably advocated the use of U.S. military force to effect regime change, interfere in other countries’ civil wars, and promote democracy and human rights, as well as a hyperactive and muscular approach to dealing with the world’s problems. Obama had a mixed record in taming the Blob; he succumbed to its preferences in Libya, but has kept it largely at bay in Syria. By the time of the election, many old hands in both the Democratic and Republican foreign-policy establishment were salivating over the prospect of Hillary Clinton, a charter member of that club, welcoming back the Blob’s members as mandarins of American foreign policy.

Russia Escalates Its Air Campaign in Syria

by Chris Kozak, Kathleen Weinberger, Genevieve Casagrande and Jonathan Mautner

November 17, 2016

Warning Update: Russia Escalates Its Air Campaign in Syria

Key Takeaway: Russia resumed its air campaign against Aleppo City on November 15 after a nearly month-long pause on strikes in the besieged city. The operations included sorties launched from the newly-arrived Russian aircraft carrier ‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ and its accompanying battlegroup in order to showcase the military strength and power projection capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. Russia also announced the deployment of up to seven additional S-300 anti-aircraft systems to Syria in order to reinforce its existing air defense network. Russia aims to advance its short-term goal to force the surrender of the opposition in Aleppo City while setting conditions to constrain the options of the U.S. in Syria in the long-term. 

Russia launched a new intensive air campaign throughout Northern Syria on 15 NOV in order to showcase the capabilities of its newly-deployed air and naval units.

Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu announced the start of a “major operation” targeting positions allegedly held by ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Idlib and Homs Provinces.

Activist reports indicated that Russia resumed airstrikes against opposition-held districts of Aleppo City, breaking a nearly month-long moratorium on strikes in the city. Russian Ministry of Defense Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov denied the reports as “public rhetoric” and “blatant lies” from the U.S. State Department.

Russia also reportedly intensified its wider air campaign against core opposition terrain in Aleppo and Idlib Provinces. Despite Shoygu’s earlier statements that Russian forces would target positions in Homs province, activists did not report any intensified air operations.

Congress Will Recommend Funding Full U.S. Nuclear Modernization Plan, Source

Aaron Mehta

November 17, 2016

Garamendi: No Halt for Nuclear Modernization Programs in Sight

WASHINGTON – There is little hope for the non-proliferation community to slow down nuclear weapons modernization in the next few years, a Democratic lawmaker said Wednesday. 

Rep. John Garamendi, a California Democrat who sits on the House Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittee, said he expects his colleagues to push ahead with the full nuclear modernization plan. 

“I think the reality is that the momentum that has been built into the nuclear modernization issue, in all of its elements, is significant and in the near-term, that is this year – this year’s appropriation, continuing resolution, omnibus, whatever it happens to be – will further that momentum and push it one more year forward, creating even greater momentum,” he said. 

“So at least in the short term, that is this year and next year, I don’t think that is going to change,” Garamendi added. “We are on a trajectory with a lot of momentum behind it that will carry these issues forward.” 

Under the Obama administration, the Pentagon is working towards modernizing its fleets of nuclear-capable submarines, bombers, ICBMs and cruise missiles, as well as updating nuclear warheads. It is a major effort that budget experts warn could eat the Pentagon’s funding over the next decade, but one that Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has called the “bedrock” of American security. 

The congressman was speaking at an event hosted by the Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear non-proliferation group that Wednesday presented a new report on nuclear advice for the next president. Garamendi praised the group’s work, but expressed doubt that it would penetrate with either the current Congress or the new administration of Donald Trump. 

An Economic Ultimatum for the Arab World

NOV 16, 2016 2

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WASHINGTON, DC – If Middle Eastern countries do not start making real progress on fundamental political and economic reforms, further regional turmoil is inevitable. With the rentier systems that governments have maintained for decades now at a breaking point, policymakers must begin the difficult, but not impossible, process of establishing new social contracts.

That contract in Arab countries started to erode at the turn of the century, when governments with inflated budgets and bloated bureaucracies could no longer provide an adequate supply of basic services such as health care and education, create a sufficient number of jobs, or sustain food and fuel subsidies. But, despite diminished state benefits, most leaders have continued to insist that their countries’ people uphold their end of the contract by not participating meaningfully in public life.

Arab governments were able to sustain inefficient economies for decades because they were propped up by oil revenues. In recent decades, most Arab countries have benefited in some way from the Middle East’s abundant oil and gas reserves. Hydrocarbon-producing countries used their profits to buy their citizens’ loyalty and establish what were effectively welfare states; and non-oil producers enjoyed the benefits of aid, capital inflows, and remittances sent back by their nationals working in resource-rich countries.

Because the governments of oil-producing countries used revenues to provide for most of their people’s needs – including jobs, services, and favors – these governments fostered a culture of dependency, rather than encouraging self-reliance and entrepreneurship to expand the private sector. What’s more, because they did not need to tax their citizens to generate revenues, people had little recourse to challenge authoritarianism. The political culture reflected a simple principle: “no taxation, no representation.”

Why Ukraine Is Losing the War on Corruption

By MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI

NOV. 16, 2016

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KIEV, Ukraine — Few politicians in the world have had to undergo the same experience twice in their career and in different countries. Yet this is exactly what happened to me in Ukraine and Georgia.

I was the president of Georgia for nine years, during which it went from a kleptocracy and failed state to a country that won international recognition for tackling corruption and became one of the easiest places in Europe to conduct business. Named the world’s top reformer by the World Bank in 2006, Georgia became a flagship among the countries of the former Soviet bloc.

After my second presidential term in 2013, I left to pursue academic work in the United States for a time, and then returned to Ukraine — where, as a young man, I had spent several years at Kiev University. Responding to calls from my Ukrainian friends to help apply my experience in government, I arrived along with the wave of enthusiasm for reform that followed the Maidan revolution.

I offered to work in Odessa, the largest region of Ukraine. It was highly unusual for a former president of another state to serve as a governor in a different country, but the very fate of Ukrainian statehood was at stake in Odessa. The province was not only riddled with local mafia groups infamous for their thuggishness, but it was also threatened by the conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Odessa borders the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is controlled by Moscow-backed separatists and Russian armed forces.

I brought with me a group of professionals from my previous government, who started to overhaul Ukraine’s police force and helped to lead the country’s first anti-corruption agency. The reform of the police force was an immediate popular success, while the new anti-graft agency established several high-profile investigations. We seemed to have the encouragement of Ukraine’s president to push ahead.

Africa’s Trump Scare – OpEd

By Samantha Maloof*
NOVEMBER 18, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/18112016-africas-trump-scare-oped/

When Donald Trump was elected to be the 45th President of the United States, he did so on vague promises and undefined policies. While Asia and Europe featured prominently on the campaign trail, he has been silent on any issue pertaining to Africa. Now that Trump will be taking office in January 2017, there is much uncertainty over the shape his future Africa policy will take, and how the relationship between the United States and the African continent will be affected by his presidency.

What is for sure, however, is that The Donald will be bad news for Africa. Given his staunch “America First” mantra that will be guiding his administration, Africa is going to slip all the way down the list as the US decreases its engagement with the world in order to channel resources inwards. The first budgetary elements on the chopping bloc will most likely be aid provisions to those in need. Despite the fact that Trump had very little to say about the issue, the overall tenor and content of his campaign, in which he pledged to dismantle and reduce the federal state apparatus suggests that USAID could be part of the devolution as well. Although US spending on aid only amounted to 1 percent of the total US federal budget in 2015, this spending will probably careen towards historic lows under President Trump. His transactional worldview relies on receiving tangible returns on his investments – and while Africa is the fastest growing continent, Trump is unlikely to notice.

The Trump presidency could also be the death knell for most of the trade with Africa. The “African Growth and Opportunity Act” (AGOA), which was signed into law in May 2000 to provide “beneficiary countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with the most liberal access to the U.S. market available,” could be one of the first US-Africa agreements to go. While its successes have been debated, AGOA has nevertheless succeeded in pushing trade and investment to become the top priority for US policy in Africa, and in developing “Trade and Investments Hubs” to facilitate African companies’ entry to the American market. With two-way trade valued at $36 billion in 2015, African member countries would lose billions if AGOA were to be abolished. Coupled with the possible abandonment of the “President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief” (PEPFAR) and other development initiatives such as Obama’s “Electrify Africa Act”, Africa might be left standing in the dark.

World Oil Prices, Russian Production Both Predicted To Fall Over Next 25 Years – OpEd

BY PAUL GOBLE 

NOVEMBER 18, 2016

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Just how disastrous Vladimir Putin’s decision to rely on the export of oil rather than to modernize and diversify the Russian economy is going to become ever more obvious in the coming years given that world prices of oil may fall to as low as ten US dollars a barrel and Russia’s production of oil to fall by almost 30 percent over the next 25 years.

Those predictions are offered by the new annual report of the International Energy Agency, and they point to a disaster for Russia even if oil prices might occasionally spike upward from where they are now unless Moscow takes step to end Russia’s dependence on oil exports (ng.ru/economics/2016-11-17/4_6861_oil.html).

The reason the IEA says oil prices will fall is rooted in lower production costs brought about by the fracking revolution. Demand in fact will grow by 12.5 percent by 2040 to 103.5 million barrels a day, “Nezavisimaya gazeta” journalist Olga Solovyeva says in reporting on the findings of the agency.

“For Russia,” she says, “the IAE predictions are hard to call optimistic. Russian oil production is slated to fall by 30 percent to 8.5 million barrels a day from its current rate of 10.9 million.” While Russia’s oil companies may do all right, the report continues, the Russian government is going to be constricted by a decline in revenue from the sale of oil abroad.

The situation may become even more dire as the world enters a period of extreme volatility in oil prices because those countries in the West that are using fracking can adjust their production levels at lower losses than those like Russia that use this technology for a much smaller share of their production.

Russian warplanes from Mediterranean carrier join Syria attacks

Louisa Loveluck and David Filipov

November 15, 2016

BEIRUT — Warplanes based on a Russian aircraft carrier hit targets across rebel-held parts of Syria on Tuesday, bringing a new attack force into the conflict as Syrian troops stepped up their offensive on the besieged city of Aleppo.

The introduction of Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov into the battle suggested the beginning of a renewed offensive by Syria and its Russian allies seeking to reclaim full control of Aleppo, a strategic northern city and one of the last urban strongholds for factions opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

It was the first time that carrier-based jets have been used in the battles. Russia also said a frigate also in the Mediterranean launched cruise missile strikes.

Russian officials said the airstrikes took place in Homs and Idlib province — both areas north of Damascus but not covering Aleppo. It remained unclear, however, whether the Russian warplanes also took part in the Aleppo airstrikes.

Activists and news reports said bombs had been dropped across at least four neighborhoods in the city’s eastern half, an area controlled by anti-Assad fighters.

Aleppo has been the center of fighting in Syria since last month. The government’s recapture of the city — under rebel control since 2012 — would be a heavy blow to Syria’s armed opposition and could hasten the fall of its remaining strongholds across the north of the country.

Images shared by local activists showed men and young children searching for survivors in the wreckage of a building in east Aleppo, where an estimated 250,000 people remain. The casualty count was not immediately clear.

Syrian state television reported the strikes had hit what it called “terrorist” strongholds and supply depots. But residents said the bombs had landed on civilian homes. The claims could not be independently verified.

Is Google crashing the Microsoft open source party?

JAMES NUNNS

17 NOVEMBER 2016

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Finding a tech strategy that sets your business apart from the competition is rarely a simple task, particularly so when the business is a massive tech giant and most of its rivals are doing the same thing.

Microsoft has been in that position more than once this week as it found itself grabbing the headlines with a number of announcements around open source and artificial intelligence, only for it to have the spotlight stolen by Google.

It is either pure coincidence or a clever tactic but announcements by one company have typically been followed in a blink of an eye by a similar one by the rival.

On Tuesday 15th for example Microsoft revealed that it had signed a partnership with the Elon Musk backed artificial intelligence research group called OpenAI. As part of the deal, OpenAI will use Microsoft Azure for its large scale experiments.

A day later and Microsoft is joining the Linux Foundation and Google is joining the Technical Steering Group of the .NET Foundation.

Microsoft just became a Platinum member of the Linux Foundation.

Call in the A-10

By Ed Darack

http://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/why-the-a-10-survives-180960962/

rom what was then the 188th Fighter Wing of the Arkansas Air National Guard fly formation maneuvers over Fort Smith in 2013. The A-10 is slowly disappearing. The 188th divested itself of its last Warthogs (and its “Fighter” designation) in June 2014.

Near the top of that peak, right there. That’s where they’re hiding,” Marine Corporal Justin Bradley said. Without rising from his crouch position he pointed to a mountain on the north side of eastern Afghanistan’s Pech River valley. It was October 2005, and minutes earlier, insurgents from that location, with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, had ambushed a platoon of Marines, then taken cover and continued their attack as the Marines returned fire. “Now watch it get lit up,” Bradley said.

A second Marine spoke into one of three radios he carried: “Boar two-one, you’re cleared hot. I repeat, you’re cleared hot.” The air above us tore open with a string of concussive reports—WHIZ! WHIZ! WHIZ!—as 30mm, high-explosive rounds sped toward their target at more than half a mile per second.

The insurgent position erupted in a shower of blinding yellow bursts as popping crackles echoed throughout the valley. Then the shadow of a straight-wing aircraft flicked along the valley cliffs and slopes, followed by the scream of twin turbofan engines a hundred feet overhead as the gray airplane banked hard to the right.

The turn revealed the weapon that dispatched those rounds: a GAU-8 Avenger seven-barrel high-speed rotary cannon protruding from the aircraft’s nose like a stinger. Pulling into a steep climb, the aircraft released a volley of bright yellow flares, a countermeasure against possible heat-seeking missiles.

“I love the A-10!” the Marine next to me yelled as others cheered. “Those gun runs never get old!” A few more passes ensured that the attackers on the mountain would never strike again.

Making Government Work: Why the Pentagon Must Pass a Clean Audit

John TierneyChris Shays

November 17, 2016

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These days, few things in Washington elicit bipartisan action. But when it comes to wasted or unaccountable taxpayer dollars, party lines can be crossed quickly. This was certainly the case in 2008, when one of us (Tierney) broke through the ideological divide and co-sponsored legislation requiring the formation of an independent commission to investigate contract waste and fraud in Iraq and Afghanistan. That Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan, co-chaired by the other of us (Shays), ultimately found that up to $60 billion of U.S. taxpayer money had been lost. Such an eye-popping figure illuminates how public resources can be wildly mismanaged and abused without proper oversight.

Unfortunately, contract waste and fraud is only the tip of the iceberg. With the largest discretionary budget of any federal executive department, it is unconscionable that the Pentagon cannot account for how it spends its roughly $600 billion in annual resources. In fact, it is illegal.

The Department of Defense is required under federal law to pass an audit every single year, just like the private sector and every other major federal agency. Yet it has never happened. Not once. It is now time to take the next step toward public accountability by pressuring the Pentagon to complete a full audit through bipartisan legislative action.

An audit is a critical tool used to ensure accountability through the verification of records. When an entity purchases items and services, an audit determines the accuracy and reliability of the financial records covering those transactions. As is obvious, the Department of Defense (DOD) oversees very large numbers of major purchases. But absent an audit, the public has no reasonable assurance that DOD’s records are dependable, or that the Department is spending money as authorized by elected leaders.

Drones Are Here to Stay

Paul D. Shinkman

November 17, 2016

U.S. Drones Are Here to Stay

When the history of drone warfare is written, the otherwise unremarkable battle of Manbij that liberated a small city in northern Syria from the clutches of the Islamic State group this summer could end up with a chapter of its own.

Drones played an integral part of the fight for this key terrain roughly 20 miles from the Turkish border, representing a dramatic escalation of war planners’ reliance on the remote-controlled machines for intelligence gathering and killing.

Known in military circles as Remotely Piloted Aircraft or RPA, drones accounted for a third of the air missions during a month-long battle and conducted 663 airstrikes on ground targets, according to U.S. Central Command, the military headquarters that oversees conflicts in the Middle East. And some of their missions endured for 19 hours straight or more, with rotating shifts of pilots commanding the unmanned aircraft from the U.S. and elsewhere.

They remain hotly contested technology at the center of arguments by critics who say they make killing too easy. But their irrefutable contribution, rightly or wrongly, to defeating the Islamic State group serves as evidence for those who oversee them that there is no turning back on their use.

“All of those things make us uniquely capable in that kind of environment,” says Col. Case Cunningham, the commander of the Air Force’s 432nd Air Expeditionary Wing, a drone unit based at Creech Air Force Base, Nevada. “I feel really good about what our airmen are doing on the ground there because they’re saving lives from the folks that we’re in conflict with.”

Navy Puts Procurement of Carrier Drone on Fast Track

By Jon Harper 

December 2016 

Source link

A drone demonstrator launches from the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush. 

The Navy is expediting its effort to acquire a carrier-launched unmanned tanker, as service officials seek to usher in a new era of naval aviation.

The MQ-25 Stingray would enable carrier-based strike aircraft such as the F/A-18 Super Hornet to have greater range. 

“We need to get [the MQ-25] to the fleet as quick as we can so we can start learning about that manned-unmanned teaming and integrate that into the air wing,” Naval Air Systems Command Commander Vice Adm. Mike Shoemaker said at a recent conference.

The plane is also to be equipped with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.

Four companies — Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Atomics — were recently awarded contracts to conduct risk reduction activities in support of the program. The work includes refinement of concepts and development of trade space for requirements generation in advance of the engineering and manufacturing development phase.

Boeing, Lockheed and General Atomics were awarded $43 million each. Northrop Grumman received a $35 million contract. The work is expected to be completed by October 2017.

The concept refinement work will inform the request for proposals for engineering and manufacturing development. An RFP release is slated for the summer of 2017, and a contract award is expected in 2018, according to Navy officials.

New Numbers Show Continued Decline of US Military

Rachel Zissimos / @rachel_zissimos / Brian Slattery / @BrianSlattery22 

November 16, 2016 
http://dailysignal.com/2016/11/16/new-numbers-show-continued-decline-of-us-military/

A U.S. Navy F/A-18F Super Hornet fighter aircraft launches from the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington in the waters of South Japan, Nov. 10, 2014. (Mc Chris Cavagnaro/Zuma Press/Newscom)

Rachel Zissimos is a Research Assistant for National Security and Defense Studies at The Heritage Foundation.

Brian Slattery is a research associate for Security Studies at The Heritage Foundation. In this capacity he advocates for a strong national defense and robust security enterprise. Brian focuses particularly on maritime security, the U.S. Coast Guard and the Arctic.

As a new presidential administration prepares to take office, the responsibilities it inherits are daunting. Threats to U.S. interests and security around the globe continue to grow and fester.

At the same time, budget cuts have forced the Department of Defense into unsustainable practices, foregoing longer-term modernization to service the military’s more immediate needs and ongoing operations.

The Heritage Foundation’s third annual Index of U.S. Military Strength, published today, finds that these troubling trends described in the first two editions have only continued. While the military struggles to preserve the status quo, America’s enemies “have not remained static.”

Consider the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). In the past year, the DPRK conducted multiple nuclear tests, including an alleged hydrogen bomb test in January, and a second higher yield test in September.

The Daily Signal is the multimedia news organization of The Heritage Foundation. We’ll respect your inbox and keep you informed.

The DPRK has also continued to develop ballistic missile capabilities to deliver such weapons. During the same time, the “strategic muscles” of the U.S. have atrophied.

In addition to an aging nuclear infrastructure and out-of-date nuclear weapons designs, the Task Force on DOD Nuclear Weapons Management concluded that “the read­iness of forces assigned the nuclear mission has seriously eroded.”

The Army's cyber ops has a data problem

By: Jen Judson, 

November 16, 2016 

Source Link

The Army’s cyber operations are challenged by the amount of data flowing through the network, according to the service’s cyber director in the Army’s G-3/5/7 branch.

“We are challenged with big data analytics,” Brig. Gen. Patricia Frost said at Federal Times' CyberCon conference in Washington on Wednesday. The Army and the other services are working on how to cull through “a tremendous amount of data” in a way that brings appropriate knowledge or information to the decision-makers in the field.

“At echelon, when you talk to our commanders, they are overwhelmed, they rarely feel they [have] the information required to get to the decision,” Frost said.

Solutions to understanding the cyber battle space and help process the data could include visualization tools to aid commanders in the electronic warfare spectrum; the ability to pinpoint an adversary, if the adversary can see you in cyberspace; and where one may be denied the ability to operate, she said.

Brig. Gen. Jennifer Buckner, deputy commander of operations at U.S. Cyber Command’s Cyber National Mission Force, said the force’s relationship with the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIUx) has helped bring some technologies to light that could help offensive and defensive operations in cyberspace, to include better ways to speed through or harvest data and even respond automatically based on data ingested into the system.

The need to process large amounts of data into usable information for commanders is just the “tip of the spear” of cyber operations.

The network itself, Frost noted, is a war fighting platform for the “digitized” military. “If you are denied service on that war fighting platform, portions of what you are trying to achieve as a commander” cannot be accomplished, she said.

Air Force wants industry input for enhanced electromagnetic battle management capability

By: Mark Pomerleau, 

November 15, 2016 

Source Link

The Air Force is soliciting input for technologies available in the next five years for a new or enhanced electromagnetic battle management capability. 

In a post listed on the FedBizOpps website, the Air Force desires capabilities that will provide situational awareness and command and control of the electromagnetic spectrum. 

“Electromagnetic Battle Management is the dynamic monitoring, assessing, planning, and directing of joint electromagnetic spectrum operations in support of the commander’s scheme of maneuver,” Maj. Matthew Miller, a spokesman with Strategic Command, told C4ISRNET. “It integrates electromagnetic spectrum operations (EMSO), combining capabilities to protect, exploit, and attack in and through the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS). The coordination of EMSO effects with other operations enables freedom of action across all domains and joint functions. Joint forces integrate EMSO using EMBM to achieve EMS superiority.” 

EMBM (Electromagnetic Battle Management) consists of three components — situational awareness, decision support and command and control — which are all linked by a common architecture, standards and data, he added. 

According to Miller, situational awareness in this context refers to real-time awareness of the current electromagnetic operational environment as well as knowledge of available resources as a fundamental requirement for electromagnetic spectrum operations decisions-making. 

“An EMBM user-defined operating picture fuses all sources of information to depict the EMOE throughout all phases of operations, displaying geographic lay down, parametric analysis, system status, support assets, planned routes, EMS availability/use and anticipated mission effectiveness,” he said. 

Liberals Should Develop Their Own Stuxnet – OpEd

By Arik Segal*
NOVEMBER 18, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/18112016-liberals-should-develop-their-own-stuxnet-oped/

Geopolitics and the development of ICT create a fertile ground for political campaigns based on fear. An effective response would be to start thinking of technology as more than a just tool to deliver messages.

Many were surprised when the Peace Agreement signed between the Colombian government and the FARC was rejected by the public in a plebiscite. The shock resulted not only because Colombians refused to end a bloody conflict that cost more than 200,000 lives, but also because public opinion polls predicted the opposite outcome. There are many possible causes for rejection of the Peace Agreement. Some include: the inability of the elites to translate the benefits of the agreement to the people, inability to understand the needs and concerns of many Colombians who suffered directly from FARC’s atrocities and a tough campaign by the opposition led by former President Alvaro Uribe.

Colombia is not alone. Other recent referendums and political agreements such as the Brexit, Trump campaign and Israeli elections show similar symptoms. The coarse thread between all those can be described as a situation in which people in real time, decide on their future according to their emotions and not according to reasonable arguments based on linear thinking.

From an international relations perspective, the massive use of social media networks, instant messaging apps along with rise of radical Islamic terrorism, mass immigration and economic uncertainty created a fertile ground for the success of political campaigns based on fear.

Whether the threat is perceived or real, the outcome is the same – majority of the public that is detached from physically feeling potential future benefits that were sought by political, economic and social elites. In the case of Colombia, is might have been easier for people to feel anger at FARC than feel the benefits of “peace”, as for Brits to fear losing their jobs for immigrants, or for Israelis to feel the danger of losing strategic ground in case of withdrawal from the West Bank and risk a “Gaza 2” scenario.

New Software Continuously Scrambles Code To Foil Cyber Attacks

BY EURASIA REVIEW 

NOVEMBER 17, 2016

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As long as humans are writing software, there will be coding mistakes for malicious hackers to exploit. A single bug can open the door to attackers deleting files, copying credit card numbers or carrying out political mischief.

A new program called Shuffler tries to preempt such attacks by allowing programs to continuously scramble their code as they run, effectively closing the window of opportunity for an attack. The technique is described in a study presented this month at the USENIX Symposium on Operating Systems and Design (OSDI) in Savannah, Ga.

“Shuffler makes it nearly impossible to turn a bug into a functioning attack, defending software developers from their mistakes,” said the study’s lead author, David Williams-King, a graduate student at Columbia Engineering. “Attackers are unable to figure out the program’s layout if the code keeps changing.”

Even after repeated debugging, software typically contains up to 50 errors per 1,000 lines of code, each a potential avenue for attack. Though security defenses are constantly evolving, attackers are quick to find new ways in.

In the early 2000s, computer operating systems adopted a security feature called address space layout randomization, or ASLR. This technique rearranges memory when a program launches, making it harder for hackers to find and reuse existing code to take over the machine. But hackers soon discovered they could exploit memory disclosure bugs to grab code fragments once the program was already running.

Breaking the N-silence

Arun Prakash

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Parrikar has broken a tradition of sphinx-like silence, wherein his two UPA predecessors rarely acknowledged the existence of India’s nuclear deterrent or even mentioned the ‘N’ word.

Raksha Mantri (RM) Manohar Parrikar’s seemingly wayward remarks about India’s nuclear posture may have stirred a hornet’s nest in the media, but if they are indicative of a new-found interest in security matters amongst decision-makers, this occurrence needs to be lauded. Given their preoccupation with electoral politics, it is worrying to see how little time and mental space our political leaders devote to national security. Nowhere is this neglect more worrisome than in the area of higher defence management and the existential complexities of our nuclear deterrent. Even if he was expressing personal views, which may or may not be in consonance with state policy or media perceptions, Parrikar has broken a tradition of sphinx-like silence, wherein his two UPA predecessors rarely acknowledged the existence of India’s nuclear deterrent or even mentioned the ‘N’ word. The RM’s off-the-cuff remarks will serve a useful purpose if they trigger a debate on nuclear issues that include India’s hastily made commitments to no-first-use (NFU), a “minimal” arsenal and the self-imposed moratorium on testing. After all, the BJP’s 2014 election manifesto had promised to”study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it, to make it relevant to challenges of current times”.

WHERE IS INDIA IN CHINA’S WILD ARMS RACE?

Parjanya Bhatt

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The situation emerging in South and South East Asia with China and India as key players is akin to the Cold War arms scenario between the US and the USSR. It is for New Delhi to choose whether it wants to become a ‘strong economic power’ making it a credible military force, or a ‘lethal military power’ with a weak economy. India certainly cannot afford to be another Soviet Union, which adopted the latter strategy and got drawn into a wild arms race with an economically stronger America

India is rapidly arming its Defence forces. The latest media reports suggest that the Modi Government has cleared Defence acquisition projects worth Rs 82,000 crore, which would include purchase of 83 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) for the Air Force, a total of 464 T-90 Russian tanks and raise six regiments of Pinaka missiles for the Army, 15 Light Combat Helicopters (LCHs) and Japanese US-2i long-range amphibious surveillance aircraft for the Navy. These acquisitions come on the heels of purchase of 36 French Rafel fighter jets and a second Akula class nuclear submarine at a cost of $2 bn from Russia.