China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers

Clara Fong and Lindsay Maizland

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Introduction

China and Russia have a long, complicated history together, marked by periods of both cooperation and fierce strategic rivalry. The neighbors have strengthened ties over the past decade, but some experts question the depth of their strategic partnership, arguing that the countries’ alignment is driven more by their common rivalry with the United States than by any natural affinity.

In the past, bilateral tensions have flared over issues including communist doctrine and the countries’ extensive 2,600-mile (4184 kilometers) shared border. Since the turn of the twenty-first century, however, the China-Russia relationship has improved substantially. The two formally resolved their border dispute in the 2000s and now exercise greater security cooperation through joint military drills and arms deals. Moreover, their economic relationship has blossomed in the face of Western sanctions against Russia as Moscow shifts trade away from Europe. China and Russia also coordinate within and across international institutions to challenge the norms of the U.S.-led world order.

However, challenges remain. While joint security exercises have increased, the two militaries do not exhibit interoperability. The economic relationship has deepened, but it remains highly asymmetrical. And on the diplomatic front, China and Russia coordinate in established and new international institutions, though they do not share the same vision of world order.

Are China and Russia allies?

China and Russia are not formal treaty allies and are not bound to come to the other’s defense. Nevertheless, their emerging strategic partnership has caused alarm in Washington. During a state visit to Stockholm, Sweden in September 2023, U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) called the burgeoning China-Russia security alliance the most “large-scale” threat that Europe and the Pacific have faced since World War II. At a meeting in February 2022, days before Russia invaded Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin said their partnership has “no limits” [PDF] and vowed to deepen cooperation on various fronts.

National Defense Mobilization: Toward A Clear Division of Labor between the PLA and Civilian Bureaucracies

Yu-Ping Chang

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Executive Summary:

• As the result of the ongoing military reform, the military’s guiding and leadership role over civilian bureaucracies seems to be strengthened. Meanwhile, the responsibilities of the State Council and local governments on NDM have been substantiated, and the administrative work which the PLA used to undertake has been transferred to local governments.
• A clearer division of labor between the military and civilian bureaucracies allows the PLA to focus on the development of combat capabilities without being distracted by administrative work, while more attention and resources devoted to national defense projects by civilian bureaucracies are likely to improve NDM work.
• National defense mobilization is an area where the PLA and civilian bureaucracies need to cooperate closely during peacetime to allow an effective generation and mobilization of national resources during wartime.
• The national defense mobilization system (NDM system), composed of civilian bureaucracies and the PLA bureaucracies, used to be characterized by a bureaucratic structure in which the military sat above local governments and both guided and administered a significant portion of administrative work related to national defense development.

On March 5 in his report to the National People’s Congress (NPC), Premier Li Qiang of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) said that governments at different administrative levels are to fully support national defense (ND) development this year (People’s Daily, March 6). ND development is an area where cooperation between civilian bureaucracies and the military is required during peacetime to ensure that effective generation and mobilization of national resources is possible to sustain the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during wartime. However, developments at this year’s Two Sessions meetings further underlined the civilian governments’ diminished role in designing policies, including on matters related to national development and governance. For instance, a revision (Art. 3) to the extant Organic Law of the State Council placing the State Council under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (PLA Daily, March 12; PLA Daily, March 6; Lianghui, March 4). This emerging power structure is likely to produce a dynamic in which the State Council and local governments simply execute policies devised by Xi so that the PLA can concentrate on the development of combat capabilities.

PRC Pursues Chip Design Software Dominance

Michael Laha

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Executive Summary:

• US-China technology competition is no longer confined to only leading-edge semiconductors but is now moving to also include older so-called mature-node or legacy chips.
• Central and local level Chinese industrial and innovation policies have long pursued a goal of achieving self-sufficiency in not just the most advanced chips now submitted to US export controls but also to develop manufacturing capacity for legacy chips now the subject of a US Department of Commerce survey.
• To accomplish this, the PRC erected new R&D institutions and offered generous tax exemptions and subsidies to domestic companies.
• PRC progress in mature-node Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software self-sufficiency is a more likely prospect for the foreseeable future. Domestic companies in the PRC are publicizing initial successes but have not achieved a fully localized ecosystem of EDA products.

In December of last year, the US Department of Commerce announced it would launch a survey of America’s supply chains of mature-node semiconductors or so-called legacy chips (Department of Commerce, December 21, 2023). The People’s Republic (PRC) is poised to become a leading producer of mature-node chips and US national security experts are worried that industrial overcapacity in the PRC might lead to cheap Chinese chip imports, eroding the United States’ manufacturing base in these chips. This in turn could threaten the reliable sourcing of such chips for use by the US military.

The Global Times, one of the Chinese Communist Party’s more hardline mouthpieces, responded quickly to the Commerce Department announcement by quoting a Chinese telecoms expert who said that the United States was “citing national security just as a pretext to maintain US competitiveness in legacy chips” (Global Times, December 22, 2023). In a phone call with Gina Raimondo this January, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao (王文涛) raised the issue of the survey as one of three major concerns (FMPRC, January 11; Huanqiu, January 11). Weeks later, Gina Raimondo celebrated the first anniversary of the CHIPS and Science Act by announcing a first batch of approved semiconductor projects including in legacy chips (CSIS, February 26).

China linked to UK cyber-attacks on voter data, Dowden to say

James Gregory & Iain Watson

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The UK government is expected to link cyber-attacks which accessed personal details of millions of voters to China.

The attacks on the Electoral Commission took place in August 2021 but were only revealed last year.

Several MPs and peers who have been critical of Beijing are thought to have also been targeted in cyber-attacks.

The prime minister called China "the greatest state-based challenge to our national security".

Rishi Sunak said: "China represents an economic threat to our security and an epoch-defining challenge.

"So it is right we take steps to protect ourselves."

The BBC understands other Western nations will set out similar concerns.

Acknowledging the attacks last August, the Electoral Commission said unspecified "hostile actors" had gained access to copies of the electoral registers and broken into its emails and "control systems", but added that it had neither had any impact on any elections nor anyone's registration status.

The commission said last August that they weren't able to predict exactly how many people could be affected, but that the register for each year contained the details of around 40 million people.

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will address Parliament on Monday about the threat.

The biggest threat from China is right under our noses — and on our screens

THOMAS P. VARTANIAN

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Millions of people anticipated a glimpse of Taylor Swift at this year’s Super Bowl. That was likely millions more than noticed the stunning announcement by the government just four days earlier that Volt Typhoon — a conglomerate of cyber actors sponsored by the People’s Republic of China — had pre-positioned itself inside American critical infrastructures in preparation for cyberwar.

Intellectual theft, weather balloons, TikTok and now cyber war. What’s left for China to do before someone in charge takes action?

Like Taylor, technology tends to mesmerize and captivate us. Videos of gearheads unpackaging products and peeling plastic off screens in what resemble ritualistic ceremonies litter YouTube. Cryptocurrency computer codes invented by who-knows-who with no underlying value, backing or adult supervision intrigue us as they masquerade as the money of “the people.” Tech applications like TikTok have a pollyannish, feel-good, video game aura that lulls us into thinking bad stuff really won’t happen.

China knows how to take full advantage of it. If it had amassed its military offshore and focused every rocket in the direction of major U.S. cities, there would have been mass hysteria. But the insertion of digital explosives that can turn off our water, lights and ability to communicate seem to be too surreal to rate even a whimper.

Cyberspace has become the most dangerous and defenseless ecosystem on the planet. Instead of calling time out and rebuilding it to be more secure, we play the role of rats on spinning wheels foolishly thinking we can outrun the never-ending exploits of national adversaries, hackers, terrorist, traffickers and all-around creeps who are more than willing and capable of taking advantage of the internet’s porous qualities.

Rate Cuts? Timing Is Everything for Fed: OPINION

Dr. Hippolyte Fofack

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The release of the latest trove of data on the US economy provided plenty of good news: the country’s growth forecast is resilient; the labor market is buoyant, and inflation remains on its downward trajectory. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—rose 2.6% over the 12 months ending in December, well below the 5.4% recorded at end-2022. (Remove volatile food and energy costs, and core PCE prices have been running at just 1.9%).

Momentum is thus building in favor of adjusting the central bank’s monetary policy stance to focus more on growth objectives and sustain the post-pandemic economic expansion. As tempting as such a policy move may be, hastily cutting interest rates is not a risk-free proposition even in the best of times. The risks are especially acute today given the state of our highly-geopoliticized, polycrisis world, in which supply-chain disruption has become a permanent feature of the global economy.

Though the US economy defied most economists’ expectations for a recession, recording growth of 2.5% in 2023 – the highest among advanced economies – the risk has not abated entirely, with sharp monetary tightening emerging as the major threat to a positive outlook.

Bringing inflation to heel without causing a recession was always a tall order, managing the tradeoff between price stability and financial stability. The previous year therefore represents a remarkable pendulum swing for the US economy, in stark contrast to the euro area, where the European Central Bank aggressively tightened monetary policy to combat inflation and growth was anemic at just 0.5%, weighed down by Germany which saw its economy contract by 0.3% in 2023.

Several factors helped keep the US economy on an expansionary track. First, and perhaps the most important, is the scale (more than 25% of GDP) of pandemic relief, infrastructure spending, and investment incentives.

Why Getting Rid of Netanyahu Is Unlikely to Shift Israel’s Approach to Gaza

YASMEEN SERHAN

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When Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer took to the Senate floor to call for Israelis to return to the polls to elect a new government, he articulated a position that many within and beyond Israel share: that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put his political survival ahead of the country’s interests and that, amid a military campaign in Gaza where more than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed and some 134 Israelis remain hostage, perhaps his far-right coalition’s time in power has run its course.

Netanyahu’s dwindling popularity at home (where recent polls show him trailing his top rival, the retired army general Benny Gantz) and abroad has become increasingly apparent as Israel’s war in Gaza grinds on. Nearly half a year into its retaliatory war to root out Hamas from the Strip in the aftermath of the group’s Oct. 7 attack, the country appears no closer to meeting its desired endgame—one that the government says can only be achieved by launching a contentious offensive on Gaza’s southernmost and densely-populated city of Rafah. Meanwhile, the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Gaza continues to spiral as global calls for Israel to allow greater flows of aid into the Strip go unheeded.

It’s then perhaps little wonder that Netanyahu has become widely regarded as a key obstacle to peace. Indeed, since returning to office in 2022 after a brief stint in opposition, Netanyahu has largely pursued policies aimed at preserving his power—most notably his government’s contentious judicial overhaul, which triggered consecutive months of mass protests. His popularity wasn’t great then, and it plummeted even further after Oct. 7; a majority of Israelis have blamed him for a failure to prevent the attack. Many now favor early elections (the next one isn’t due until late 2026), which would likely result in Netanyahu's ejection of power. While this would have a profound impact on Israel’s political landscape, which Netanyahu and his ruling Likud Party have dominated for the best part of two decades, expert observers warn that it won’t necessarily be a panacea.

Let’s Face It: Sanctions Are Warfare by Another Name

ASSAL RAD

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Despite a growing national fatigue for endless wars, US militarism and adventurism continues to be a common feature of its foreign policy. As Americans struggle at home to put food on the table and costs of living have soared, the resources expended on wars abroad and military aid become even greater points of contention. It is in this context that we should examine the increasing reliance of consecutive US administrations on economic sanctions as a tool of coercion. But how well do we actually understand how sanctions work? A new book by the same name sets out to answer that very question.

At first glance, sanctions may appear like a useful alternative to war. Proponents of sanctions will argue that they avoid putting boots on the ground, thus protecting American servicemembers, they have the power to alter the behavior of targeted states, and prevent the devastation to innocent civilians caused by conventional warfare. But a deeper analysis of sanctions shows a starkly different picture.

Though there has certainly been evidence and literature that shows the limited efficacy of sanctions and their humanitarian costs on civilians, those findings are not always accessible to the broader public and tend to have a narrower focus.

And while many may recall the horror stories of how US sanctions hurt Iraqi children and civilians in the 1990s — especially the now infamous remarks by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright stating that the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children were “worth it” — sanctions policy is still not part of a wider political debate among the American public.

Sanctions as a Silent Killer

This discrepancy is due in part to the fact that sanctions are a silent killer. They do not draw the same media attention as bombs, dead bodies, and images of cities and homes turned to rubble — as we are seeing in Gaza now. To be clear, the enormous destruction and loss of life at such a rapid pace in Gaza should be the headline of every news outlet. But while sanctions can profoundly damage an entire society, the slow death they produce often goes unnoticed.

Haiti’s Evolving Political and Security Crisis

Christopher Hernandez-Roy and Georges A. Fauriol

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Haiti’s years-long political and security crisis entered a new phase last week when Prime Minister Ariel Henry, Haiti’s acting head of state since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, announced his resignation. Now, Haiti faces a period of profound uncertainty, with a serious power vacuum in government, ascendant criminal groups within striking distance of the halls of state power, and increasingly narrow prospects for a long-awaited international aid mission.

In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Georges Fauriol, Senior Associate with the CSIS Americas Program and fellow with the Caribbean Policy Consortium. Together, they unpack the implications of Henry's resignation, the recent surge in gang activity, as well as what the future may hold as Haiti continues to struggle to come to terms with citizen security. They also discuss the reactions of Haitian civil society, and the lack of substantial action on the part of the international community.

Bullets and panic - the Moscow concert that became a massacre

Paul Kirby

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It was just before eight o'clock and the auditorium at Crocus City Hall was filling up, ahead of a Friday night rock concert by veteran band Picnic.

"Some people in brown clothing, I don't know who they were - terrorists, military, whoever - broke into the auditorium and started shooting at people with assault rifles," said photographer Dave Primov, who saw the attack unfold from an upstairs balcony.

Warning: Some of the details of this story are graphic

The gunmen had just walked across the concourse outside the theatre, opening fire at random, killing and wounding members of the public as they walked in.

Some 6,200 tickets had been sold for the concert, but security outside the entrance quickly melted away. One of four guards said his colleagues hid behind an advertising board: "Those attackers passed 10m [30ft] away from us - they started shooting randomly at people on the ground floor."

No-one knew how many attackers there were. But video filmed from an upper floor shows four men walking separately with a few metres between them across the beige, marble-tiled floor.

Footage shows gunmen in the lobby of Crocus Concert Hall

The lead attacker aims point-blank at people huddled against the windows. These are the first victims of Russia's deadliest attack on civilians for years.

Many of those killed and wounded came from Krasnogorsk, Khimki and other nearby towns on Moscow's north-western fringe.

Immigration and the Rise of Populism

Adeline Von Drehle

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Conservative populism is on the march across the world, as unchecked immigration continues to inspire a backlash of nativist feelings and nationalist rhetoric. As migrant crises plague Europe and the United States, populists leaders are adopting hardline immigration stances and boosting their rise to power.

The most recent example is in Portugal, previously one of Europe’s most reliably liberal countries. The center-left Socialist Party lost control of the government for the first time since 2015 in early March. They were toppled by the center-right Democratic Alliance by a mere 2,000 votes; both parties gathered about 29% of the vote. But the headline of the evening was the far-right Chega party and its third-place finish with 18% of the vote.

Chega, which means “Enough” in English, more than doubled its 2022 support. Andre Ventura, a former sportscaster with a large social media following, led the Chega Party on an anti-corruption message while stoking fears that crime-committing migrants are overrunning Portugal. Fact-checking organizations say Ventura has routinely exaggerated the threat, which he conflates with actual problems ranging from political corruption and a housing shortage to high inflation and low wages.

The Portuguese election may herald what is to come later this year on both sides of the Atlantic. Some 20 national-level elections are scheduled in the West in 2024, including in the United States and the European Union.

“Portugal is a laboratory for the electoral year in Europe,” said António Costa Pinto, a political expert with the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon.

In Portugal, dark memories of a right-wing dictatorship which fell in 1974 kept populists at bay for the last half-century. For that reason, the rise of Chega is viewed as a signal that the far right can surge anywhere in Europe, and that disenchanted voters can be convinced that ultraconservative populism is the answer to a variety of social ills.

Gaza Strip: The Day After and Beyond – The Realistic Plan

Boaz ItsHaky

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Two states side by side rather than One inside the other

We all must live by the consequences of the choices we make in life – no exceptions. What was before October 7th, 2023, must not take place again. To do so Israel must revisit, revise and renew its “NEVER AGAIN” policy, which will be supported by Israel’s renewed national security policy: A dove equipped with talons of a hawk, where one talon holds an olive tree branch and the other talon firmly grasps Israel enemies.

No longer can Israel have a “Small but Smart IDF.” Rather, a “Large & Smart IDF” that will be far more reliant on domestically made arms and far less dependent on foreign arms and ammunition. Israel must look forward.

In light of a possible October 7th like attack initiated from Judea and Samaria, a potential existential threat to Israel’s national security has become center stage. A similar attack could dissect Israel into two separate areas. Israel’s national security needs have changed forever.

After being at the receiving end of the Palestinians’ choices – of NO – for the past 75 years, there must be consequences for these choices. For the sake of Israel’s continuation, lasting to the Ein Sof (infinite in Hebrew) solution must be instituted now. But it cannot include Judea and Samaria as part of the Palestinians aspirations.

In addition, the majority of Israel’s electorate is already making a sharp hawkish shift on matters of national security, and it will remain this way for the foreseeable future. The new understanding of most Israelis (across the political spectrum) will be: A. A resounding NO for a Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria, because of demographic and geographic existential threat to Israel’s national security. B. A resounding YES for once and for all separation from the Palestinians. However, this time with clear cut physical borders.

If Israel wants an arrangement that will last to the long/Ein-Sof term, then Israel must have a "Day After Plan" that is acceptable to at least 80% of Israel’s voters, otherwise it will be short-lived.

America has no Ukraine Plan B except more war

DAVID P GOLDMAN

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Somewhere last weekend a few dozen former Cabinet members, senior military officers, academics and think tank analysts met to evaluate the world military situation.

I can say that I haven’t been so scared since the fall of 1983, when I was a junior contract researcher doing odd jobs for then Special Assistant to the President Norman A Bailey at the National Security Council. That was the peak of the Cold War and the too-realistic Able Archer 83 exercise nearly set off a nuclear war.

Now, the US foreign policy establishment has staked its credibility on humiliating Russia by pushing NATO’s borders to within a few hundred kilometers of Moscow, while crushing Moscow’s economy through sanctions.

It has pulled every chit it has with European governments, mobilizing its legion of journalists, think tankers and stipended politicians to promote the Ukrainian proxy war, with the intent of degrading Russia’s armed forces and ultimately forcing regime change in Russia.

The messaging from the most distinguished participants – former Cabinet members with defense and national security portfolios – is that NATO is still determined to win at any cost. “The question is whether Russia can generate strategic reserves,” one rapporteur said, “Its officer corps is at 50% strength and it has no depth of non-commissioned officers.”

“The Russians are taking massive losses of 25,000 to 30,000 a month,” the former official added. “They can’t sustain the will to fight on the battlefield. The Russians are close to a breaking point. Can they sustain their national will? Not if the rigged election [of Vladimir Putin this month] was any indication. Their economy has real vulnerability. We need to redouble sanctions and financial interdiction of supplies getting to Russia. The Russians have a Potemkin portrayal of strength.”

The Tyranny of Expectations

Dominic Tierney

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In early 2022, much of the world applauded the heroic Ukrainian troops who held back Russian forces outside the gates of Kharkiv and Kyiv. “This is Ukraine’s finest hour, that will be remembered and recounted for generations to come,” declared then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “Its soldiers have demonstrated immense bravery,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In a speech from Warsaw, U.S. President Joe Biden proclaimed that Russian forces “met their match with brave and stiff Ukrainian resistance.”

Two years later, Ukrainian soldiers are again resisting massive Russian military assaults, this time in Donetsk, Luhansk, and elsewhere. But now there are far fewer cheers. Instead of celebrating Ukrainian valor, many observers are chiding the country for not turning the tide and going on the offensive. Last November, for example, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made revealing comments to two Russians (who were pretending to be African Union officials): “There is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides. We are near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out.” Ukraine may again be holding off a more powerful aggressor. Yet this outcome now seems like a stalemate, if not a defeat.

The global shift in perceptions is an example of the tyranny of expectations—or how assumptions about who will win a war can skew judgments about who prevails. Outside observers, both experts and laypeople alike, do not evaluate military results by simply tallying up the battlefield gains and losses. Instead, they compare these results to their expectations. As a result, states can lose territory and still be deemed winners if they overperform. States can take land and be labeled losers if they underdeliver. The resulting conclusions about the winners and losers, however skewed, can even rebound and shape the battlefield. Ukraine, for example, lost territory during the initial weeks of Russia’s invasion. But Kyiv’s unexpectedly resolute defense earned it widespread Western assistance, which helped it liberate numerous cities in the following months.

Where are the US ships on the Gaza aid mission now?

KELLEY BEAUCAR VLAHOS

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The Army and Navy ships that have left the U.S. for a massive humanitarian aid project in Gaza are still making their way across the Atlantic, with two still at ports in Florida and Virginia. It will likely take until mid-April for the vessels to reach Gaza and begin building a temporary causeway to facilitate the entry of life-saving aid into the strip.

Looking at real-time satellite imagery tracking military vessels, it looks like the USAV Gen. Frank Besson Jr., an Army support vessel that left Fort Eustis, Virginia, on March 10, has been moored and presumably refueling at a port in the Azores, Portugal, since Friday. It is at the half-way point between the U.S. and its final destination of Cyprus (nearly 5,000 nautical miles total). At an average speed of 10 knots, its journey will take nearly two more weeks, depending on weather conditions, once it gets going again.

The rest of the vessels are behind and, as of Tuesday, halfway across the Atlantic, though they can travel at slightly higher speeds than the Besson. They include the Army support vessels Loux, Matamoros, Monterrey and Wilson Wharf, which are all traveling together and were between Bermuda and the Azores Tuesday morning.

They all left U.S. ports around March 15. They are carrying modules and equipment to build the “trident” causeway — about 800 by 1200 feet — which will be anchored at the beach in Gaza to unload humanitarian aid.

The USNV Roy Benavidez, which, once in place, will help construct the floating pier and serve as a “roll on, roll off” facility two miles off the coast of Gaza, is the fastest of all the military vessels and is now ahead of the smaller Army landing craft on their way to the Azores, even though it left Newport News, Va., on March 21. When complete, aid will be ferried from Cyprus to the floating pier and then to the causeway at Gaza.

Moscow attack proves Russia — and US — have lost sight of priorities

ANATOL LIEVEN

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The Islamic State terrorist attack in Moscow is the starkest possible reminder that despite the war in Ukraine, Russia and the West also still have some of the same enemies.

What the terrorists — ISIS-K, an Afghanistan offshoot of IS, took responsibility — did in Moscow, they have done in Paris and Manchester — and will do (and did do, on 9/11) in New York and Washington, if they get the chance.

This horror is also a reminder of the fatal results of mutual distrust. It appears that U.S. intelligence warned the Russian government of an impending attack — and President Putin dismissed this as a U.S. “provocation.” In the event that Russian intelligence were to warn the U.S. of a coming terrorist attack, it is only too easy to imagine Washington reacting in the same way.

Moreover, the attack should make us think about the degree to which governments and security elites around the world are liable to lose sight of the real interests and safety of their fellow citizens — which it is their first duty to defend. In their obsessive focus on the supposed threat from each other, both the Russian and the U.S. establishments have forgotten this duty.

Over the past three decades, Washington has certainly threatened important interests in Moscow, and Russia’s international status as a great power. But (at least until Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. provision of arms and intelligence to Ukraine), Washington never killed a single Russian citizen.

As to the idea of a direct American and NATO attack on Russia (as alleged in Russian domestic propaganda) this was always absurd. No such plan ever existed. And in any case, if Russia is really so vulnerable, what is its nuclear deterrent for? Meanwhile, over this period, Islamist terrorists have killed hundreds of Russian citizens, at Vladikavkaz in 1999, 2008, and 2010; the Dubrovka theater in Moscow in 2002, the Beslan school in 2004, and now again in Moscow.

Is This a Revolution? Or Are People Just Very Ticked Off?

Michael Hirsh

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Do you, Mr. Jones?

—Bob Dylan, “Ballad of a Thin Man”

… something is happening here but you don’t know what it is

Do you, Mr. Jones?

—Bob Dylan, “Ballad of a Thin Man”

Something is happening to us—to Americans, to the world—and we don’t know what it is. Is the United States in the throes of some kind of revolution, with a vampiric Donald Trump rising from the political undead to threaten (more openly, this time around) the destruction of the U.S. Constitution itself? Is the entire post-World War II global system—or what remains of it—facing some kind of revolutionary upheaval as well? Russia’s murderous president, Vladimir Putin, continues to violate every postwar norm, territorially and otherwise, with China mostly on his side. Together they are helping to unravel an ever-more ragged global consensus that, if Trump is reelected U.S. president eight months from now, he could well rip apart for good. “Where Globalism Goes to Die” was the motto of the 50th annual Conservative Political Action Conference held in February at National Harbor, Maryland, where Trump was welcomed as a conquering hero.

Or are we, instead, engaged not so much in revolution as a series of counter-revolutions—in other words, a domestic and global reactionary backlash that seeks to restore the world that used to be (or what many people wishfully think it used to be)? Trump, of course, is leading the way, once more spuriously promising to “Make America Great Again.” Trump is embracing a radical agenda that seeks to reverse what the Republican Party—of which he is now sole owner and proprietor—views as nearly a century of liberal encroachment on Washington since the New Deal. He pledges to exile or even to imprison anyone who stands in his way. Much of this amounts to a rebellion by Trump’s riled-up MAGA base against the values of the American Revolution itself—its pledge of a common nationhood and constitutionalism, and its quixotic effort to “live out the true meaning of its creed,” in Martin Luther King Jr.’s words, by striving for equality among races and ethnic groups (as well as, more recently, every sort of sexual identity).

What we know after the Islamic State group claims responsibility for Moscow massacre

VANESSA GERA
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The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for an attack on a suburban Moscow concert hall that killed at least 133 people, the most deadly attack in Russia in years. Though the U.S. says it has evidence backing up the jihadists’ claim, that didn’t stop Moscow and Kyiv from pointing the finger at each other Saturday as the war in Ukraine rages on.

Much remains unknown about the Friday night attack, including whether it related to a security alert the U.S. Embassy in Moscow issued two weeks earlier and whether it signals a resurgence of the group in the West.

Russia continues to investigate after detaining 11 suspects but it wasn’t possible to confirm the authenticity of statements issued by Russian investigators.

Here is a look at some of what is known so far.

WHO CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility, first Friday and then again Saturday, on the social media channels that they typically use to issue statements. In their Saturday statement they said the attack had come in the “the natural framework” of the ongoing war between the extremist group and countries they accuse of fighting Islam.

IS is an offshoot of al-Qaida that took over much of Iraq and Syria in 2014. It launched a genocidal campaign against the Yazidis, a religious minority that lives in northern Iraq, as well as other groups. By 2018, it had been largely defeated on the battlefield by a U.S.-led coalition, but it continues to operate in desert hideouts in both countries. Its regional affiliates are also present in Afghanistan, West Africa and the Far East.

Apple fined €1.8bn by EU for breaking streaming rules

Shiona McCallum

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Apple has been fined €1.8bn (£1.5bn) by the EU for breaking competition laws over music streaming.

The firm had prevented streaming services from informing users of payment options outside the Apple app store, the European Commission said.

Competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said Apple abused its dominant position in the market for a decade.

She ordered the US tech giant to remove all the restrictions. Apple has said it will appeal against the decision.

The European Commission's decision was triggered by a complaint by Swedish music streaming service Spotify, which was unhappy about the restriction and Apple's 30% fee..

Ms Vestager said Apple had restricted "developers from informing consumers about alternative, cheaper music services available outside of the Apple ecosystem".

"This is illegal under EU antitrust rules," she said.

However, Apple said it would appeal, adding there was no evidence consumers had been harmed.

"The decision was reached despite the Commission's failure to uncover any credible evidence of consumer harm, and ignores the realities of a market that is thriving, competitive, and growing fast," the company said in a statement.

"The primary advocate for this decision, and the biggest beneficiary, is Spotify, a company based in Stockholm, Sweden.

India’s Submarine Saga

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan

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In a rare show of strength, last week the Indian Navy simultaneously deployed 11 of its 16 conventional submarines. The submarines were reportedly deployed at various locations in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Navy has not undertaken such a heavy simultaneous deployment in about three decades.

While this is a milestone, there is also the reality of the shrinking Indian submarine fleet. Without timely replenishment, India could end up with a submarine fleet similar to that of Pakistan, although Pakistan is the only South Asian navy that operates a submarine with air-independent propulsion (AIP).

Reflecting on the deployment and India’s failing submarine strength, an Indian naval official who spoke to the media anonymously said that he had “not seen such a high simultaneous deployment. This was basically because we did not have that many submarines in operations, and the fleet strength was hit by several undergoing refits or repairs.”

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance 2024 report, India has 16 operational submarines, which include five Kalvari-class (French Scorpene), four Shishumar-class (German Type-209), and seven Sindhugosh-class (Russian Kilo) submarines in operation. Another Kalvari-class submarine is to be commissioned into the navy soon; this will bring the overall number to 17.

However, the real question is “operational availability,” as another naval source told an Indian media outlet. According to this official, given that the Kalvari class is brand new, “their availability ratio is much higher.” The German-origin Shishumar submarines also appear to be high on reliability and performance, making their operational availability quite good. They are likely to be around for another decade and a half.

Indian Diplomats and the Social Hierarchies of Global Order

Kira Huju

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Cosmopolitans are the only tribe who seem convinced that they do not belong to one. This is the opening gambit of my monograph, Cosmopolitan Elites: Indian Diplomats and the Social Hierarchies of Global Order (Oxford University Press, 2023). Mine is a book about belonging. More specifically, it asks what it takes to belong among the cosmopolitan elite in a Western-dominated international society. It does so by examining career diplomats of the elite Indian Foreign Service, many of whom were present at the founding of this order, set out to remake it in the name of an anti-colonial global subaltern but often ended up seeking status within its hierarchies through social mimicry of its most powerful actors.

Even in a formally decolonised international society, Indian diplomats continue an awkward balancing act: despite a genuine desire to strive toward a postcolonial international society founded on diversity and difference, there coexists a lingering belief in a caricature-like notion of a white, European-dominated homogenous club, to which Indian diplomats feel a social imperative to belong. Even as these diplomats passionately contest Western political hegemony, they engage in social behaviours that betray a longing to be recognized as elite members of a Westernized elite club, in whose hierarchies of race and class they hope to ascend.

In such a social context, we should think of cosmopolitanism not as an egalitarian ethic but as an elite aesthetic: a social standard that presumes cultural fluency in Anglophone elite discourses, and social assimilation into upper-class Western mores. Membership in the club of cosmopolitans comes with its own social codes and cultural rules of entry. It assumes familiarity with dominant beliefs and manners, a resume enabled by exposure to an elite transnational class consciousness. I am “worlding” cosmopolitanism, in Edward Said’s sense: historicising it, interrogating its sociality and materiality, and paying close attention to the hierarchies embedded in it. This worlding also allows me to query the social processes that give rise to the oxymoron inherent in the very term “cosmopolitan elite”—a term which pairs equality with elitism and toleration with exclusion.

It looks like Pakistan bought a Chinese spy ship. What does it do?

Usman Ansari

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It appears Pakistan’s Navy has acquired a Chinese-built spy ship, according to open-source intelligence analyst Damien Symon, who reviewed commercially available satellite imagery.

The intelligence gathering platform, dubbed Rizwan, is described as an “offshore supply ship” by online shipping monitor MarineTraffic. Pakistan reportedly acquired the vessel from China last year with no fanfare, and the ship was spotted during a stopover in Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2023, while sailing home.

It is a compact vessel some 87.2 meters long, with two large radar domes on the stern, which along with other sensors point to an intelligence gathering role.

Neither the Pakistan Navy nor the Ministry of Defence Production, which handles military acquisitions, would discuss the ship’s role and capabilities when asked by Defense News.

However, a source with knowledge of Rizwan’s operations, speaking on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, confirmed to Defense News it is an “information gathering ship.” The source declined to provide further details.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies think tank, said Rizwan appears to be an affordable and flexible design.

He told Defense News that the ship is based on the hull of an offshore support vessel, which makes “economical sense,” and that “aside from the huge radome that should serve as the electronic intelligence array, the platform might be able to accept varying mission modules if necessary.”

The ship looks to be dimensionally comparable to Norway’s intelligence gathering vessels Eger and Marjata, Sweden’s Artemis, or Germany’s Oste class, he added.

The Bolduc Brief: Afghanistan Revisited- Lessons from a General’s Perspective

Donald Bolduc

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A Failure of Epic Proportions

The testimony of General Milley and General McKenzie in front of the House Armed Services Committee yesterday was tough to watch. The decision to withdraw from Afghanistan was undoubtedly a failure of epic proportions, resulting in a national security debacle that will have lasting consequences for years to come; how the withdrawal and the Non-Combatant Evacuation were executed and the poor interagency coordination should have led to the immediate firing of senior leaders on the military and civilian side of the Department of Defense, Department of State, and within the National Security Council Staff. However, instead of being held accountable for their actions, these leaders were allowed to remain in their positions and, in some cases, even promoted, further perpetuating a culture of cover-ups and incompetence.

The testimony yesterday was very different from previous testimony and public statements. Both generals blaming the Department of State was inappropriate. Those of us who know the importance of interagency coordination, Joint Force Operations, and executing Non-Combatant Evacuations (NEO) understand that the success and blame do not fall on the shoulders of one agency. I have participated in five NEOs at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels, and I know it takes a team effort. I understand that the planning, coordination, approvals, political considerations, security, and resources necessary to conduct an NEO is a comprehensive undertaking by the interagency, Joint Staff, and the host nation. Two operations were happening in Afghanistan simultaneously: a NEO and a withdrawal. The failure of civilians, general officers, and admirals at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels must be addressed. Blaming one administration over another is political and only prevents the American people from hearing the truth.

Is Al-Qaeda Now In Moscow? – OpEd

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

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The sudden resurgence of Al-Qaeda has thrust its name back into the global spotlight, this time as a prime suspect. Turkey has pointed fingers, linking the terrorist organization to two attacks resulting in 12 fatalities, while a statement has emerged claiming the group’s involvement in a recent terrorist strike in Moscow, which left more than 100 dead. Other reports indicate the group’s alleged involvement in attacks across Somalia, Yemen and Iraq.

Al-Qaeda was once a well-established organization with a recognized presence, headquartered in Kabul and led by Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden engaged with journalists and activists, releasing video statements. But today, Al-Qaeda has been reduced to nothing more than a name.

Why would Al-Qaeda target Moscow? Especially with the decline in hostilities in Syria, leaving no convincing explanation for its actions.

The primary enemies for Russians are the Ukrainians and their allies, who have conducted operations targeting Moscow. It is crucial to recognize that the war in Ukraine is significantly larger in scale than the Gaza conflict, both in terms of military operations and the involved armies. Moreover, the Ukraine situation has dangerous strategic implications, while the Gaza conflict is primarily regional in nature.

Despite the reluctance of most regional nations to engage in the Ukrainian conflict, Iran stood out by actively supplying Russia with drones, marking the first instance of its status as a dangerous source of weaponry. Therefore, it seems implausible that any organization under Tehran’s control or influence would launch an attack against Russia.

Most countries in the region have chosen to remain nonaligned in the Ukrainian conflict. Despite mounting pressure from the US, their relations with Russia remain positive. However, navigating these ties proves challenging, given Moscow’s support for Tehran and Tehran’s military involvement in the region’s numerous proxy conflicts.

China Coast Guard Again Damages Philippine Boat Near Disputed Shoal

Sebastian Strangio

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Chinese vessels have again blocked and fired water cannons at a Philippine supply ship close to a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, causing “heavy damage” to the wooden vessel and injuries to several of its crew, according to the Philippine government.

In a series of social media posts on Saturday, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) reported that Unaizah May 4 supply boat was en route to Second Thomas Shoal with two Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) escorts when all were blocked and surrounded by China Coast Guard (CCG) ships.

According to the AFP, at just after 6 a.m. a CCG vessel performed a “dangerous maneuver of crossing the bow” of the supply boat. About an hour later, the AFP said, the CCG then conducted a “reverse blocking maneuver” against the Unaizah May 4, causing a “near collision,” before two CCG vessels directed their high-pressure water cannons at the boat. The supply boat “sustained heavy damage at around 08:52 due to the continued blasting of water cannons” the AFP said, rendering it immobile. It also released videos showing the bow-cutting and water cannon incidents.

The Unaizah May 4 was attempting to deliver supplies and a fresh contingent of Philippine personnel to the BRP Sierra Madre, a warship that the Philippines grounded at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. The shoal has been the scene of repeated confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels over the past year, as Beijing has repeatedly attempted to prevent the resupply of the isolated outpost. This has involved collisions and damage to a number of Philippine supply boats.

Given the decrepit condition of the BRP Sierra Madre, which some observers believe could soon disintegrate, it appears that Beijing views the shoal as the most weakly-held of the nine Philippine-occupied features in the South China Sea.

Why Has China’s Automobile Exports Increased Significantly? – Analysis

Kung Chan and Xia Ri

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“New quality productive force” is now a new buzzword in China, particularly associated with the nation’s car exports. China’s car exports, including new energy vehicles (NEVs), have indeed grown significantly, to the point where the U.S. is considering imposing policy restrictions on the country.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), from 2021, the export of complete vehicles has grown significantly, exceeding 2 million units for the first time that year, a year-on-year increase of 103%, making China the world’s third-largest exporter of automobiles. In 2022, complete vehicle exports exceeded 3 million units for the first time, reaching 3.3212 million units, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%. In 2023, this figure jumped to 4.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, surpassing Japan.

Among them, the export growth of NEVs is especially rapid. CAAM data shows that in 2020, China’s export of NEVs was nearly 70,000 units, accounting for only 7.0% of the total automobile exports. In 2021, the export of NEVs reached 310,000 units, a threefold increase year-on-year. In 2022, the export reached 679,000 units, an increase of 120% year-on-year. In 2023, the export volume reached 1.203 million units, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%. So, what factors have led to the significant growth of China’s car exports and even been considered as the “new quality productive force” that can replace real estate?

Through his long-term information tracking and research, ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan believes that this is mainly due to the combined effects of three factors: the entry of emerging market economies into the era of automobiles, unprecedented demand growth in the Russian market, and rapid technological progress in China’s NEVs.

First of all, emerging market economies have entered the era of automobiles. Against the backdrop of deglobalization and the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, emerging market economies have become beneficiaries of industrial transfer, with rapid economic development, especially in the Asia-Pacific region where economic growth has been particularly impressive. 

Baidu Shares Rise After Reports That Apple Will Use Its AI Services in China Products

Jiahui Huang

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Shares of Baidu rose sharply in Hong Kong after reports of possible collaboration involving artificial intelligence between the Chinese tech giant and smartphone giant Apple.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Apple had held preliminary talks with Baidu about using its AI tech. On Monday, Chinese media outlet Cailian Press reported Baidu was set to become Apple’s local generative AI model provider for the iPhone 16, the Mac computer operating system and the upcoming mobile operating system iOS 18.

Baidu shares climbed 5.4% on Monday. Hong Kong’s benchmark tech index was down 0.2%. Baidu and Apple didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Chinese regulators have to approve generative AI models before they can be launched to the public. Baidu’s Ernie Bot is one of more than 40 models that have already been approved.

“If it does come true, it would be a perfect branding campaign for Baidu and its AI product, Ernie Bot,” Nomura analyst Jialong Shi told Dow Jones Newswires.

Don’t defund the fight against Russia and China’s disinformation - Opinion

Editorial Board

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Two authoritarian U.S. adversaries, Russia and China, are carrying out what some have called a “hidden war on democracy,” attempting to shape global opinion using deception and false narratives. By one estimate, Russia spends about $1.5 billion a year and China $7 billion or more annually to influence overseas audiences. We’ve argued before that the United States should resist their information warfare. Unfortunately, House Republicans are threatening to eliminate a key U.S. agency that does so.

The Global Engagement Center (GEC), headquartered at the State Department, deploys a $61 million budget and a staff of 125 to counter disinformation from Russia, China, Iran and terrorist organizations. It was founded as part of the fight against terrorist messaging. It is due for congressional reauthorization by the end of this year. A measure has cleared the Senate, but the Republican-controlled House has refused to follow suit, meaning the program could lapse.

The GEC efforts to preempt disinformation have been promising. Last month, the GEC exposed an attempt by Russia’s security services to undercut U.S. influence in Africa through a new disinformation agency, called African Initiative. According to the center, this agency intended to spread tales about the outbreak of a mosquito-borne viral disease, to be followed by conspiracy theories about Western pharmaceutical corporations, health-focused philanthropic efforts, and the spread of disease in West and East Africa. Even before this, Russia had an active campaign in Moscow to claim, falsely, that the United States was testing biological weapons in Ukraine. The claim was based on twisted information about legitimate public health projects in Ukraine sponsored by the United States to fight disease. Russia’s untruths were picked up and widely disseminated by China, too.

The African Initiative was going to use social media and place articles in the news. It recruited staff from the enterprises of mercenary chieftain Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who started a Russian troll farm that attempted to disrupt the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner Group had extensive contracts in Africa before his death in a suspicious plane crash in Russia.