Indian Strategic Studies

15 April 2022

No more US dollars? Ukraine war could change the global monetary system of 75 years

RUDRA SENSARMA and KAUSHIK BHATTACHARYA

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed some deep fault-lines in the global economic system. By freezing half of Russia’s foreign exchange, or forex, reserves, the West has declared economic war with central bank assets as the target. Russia had amassed $640 billion in forex reserves but now finds itself left with only gold and assets in other denominations, such as the Chinese renminbi.

In Southern Ukraine, Russian Occupation Policy Takes Shape (Part Two)

Vladimir Socor

All those territories and the Crimean peninsula cumulatively form a compact area of Russian occupation along Ukraine’s Azov Sea and Black Sea coasts that extends deep inland. These conquests go a long way toward fulfilling Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision of seizing Ukraine’s “Prichernomorie” (“Black Sea Coastal Lands”) for Russia in one form or another, as a new iteration of his “Novorossiya” (“New Russia”) project (see EDM, January 14, 2020). The Novorossiya/Prichernomorie vision also encompasses Ukraine’s Mykolayiv and Odesa provinces (Odesa forms historically its epicenter), but they remain currently under Ukrainian control.

In Southern Ukraine, Russian Occupation Policy Takes Shape (Part Three)

Vladimir Socor

The incumbent mayors and municipal councils in the Kherson and Zaporyzhzhia provinces were elected in 2020 as part of Ukraine’s country-wide local elections that year, with the support of Ukraine-wide parties (first and foremost the pro-presidential Servant of the People party) or local party lists. These elected office holders are loyal to Ukraine in their overwhelming majority and have refused any political cooperation with the Russian occupation authorities. The latter, therefore, seek to replace the legitimately elected bodies with unrepresentative collaborators.

Russia’s UAVs and UCAVs: ISR and Future Strike Capabilities

Roger McDermott

Russia’s use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) in contemporary conflicts has yielded the General Staff substantial practical data to assess future requirements and priorities when it comes to procuring additional drones; this also extends to programs aimed at producing Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV), which offer operational strike options. These initiatives and the continued modernization in this field confirm the General Staff is learning from the use of UAVs in conflicts involving Russia’s Armed Forces in Ukraine and Syria, while additionally drawing upon the experience of foreign militaries to ascertain a more rounded interpretation of the role and future capabilities offered by such advanced systems.

Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid

Jonathan Haidt

What would it have been like to live in Babel in the days after its destruction? In the Book of Genesis, we are told that the descendants of Noah built a great city in the land of Shinar. They built a tower “with its top in the heavens” to “make a name” for themselves. God was offended by the hubris of humanity and said:

Look, they are one people, and they have all one language; and this is only the beginning of what they will do; nothing that they propose to do will now be impossible for them. Come, let us go down, and confuse their language there, so that they will not understand one another’s speech.

What images of Russian trucks say about its military's struggles in Ukraine

Brad Lendon

(CNN)Think about modern warfare and it's likely images of soldiers, tanks and missiles will spring to mind. But arguably more important than any of these is something on which they all rely: the humble truck. Armies need trucks to transport their soldiers to the front lines, to supply those tanks with shells and to deliver those missiles. In short, any army that neglects its trucks does so at its peril.

Yet that appears to be exactly the problem Russia's military is facing during its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, according to experts analyzing battlefield images as its forces withdraw from areas near Kyiv to focus on the Donbas.

The U.S. has expanded intelligence sharing with Ukraine about Russian troops in the Donbas region.

Julian E. Barnes

The United States has increased the flow of intelligence to Ukraine about Russian forces in the Donbas and Crimea, as Kyiv’s military forces prepare to defend against a renewed offensive by Moscow in the country’s east, American officials said Wednesday.

The information could allow the Ukrainians to conduct more effective counterattacks against Russian forces in the Donbas or Crimea, or better predict the movement of Russian troops from those areas against Ukrainian forces.

Iran Likely to Gain More Than $70 Billion From the Removal of Oil Sanctions

Saeed Ghasseminejad

Mohsen Khojastemehr, the CEO of the National Iranian Oil Company, said earlier this month that Iran’s oil production has returned to its pre-sanctions levels. While this claim may constitute an exaggeration, Iran’s stated progress reflects the Biden administration’s failure to enforce existing sanctions on the country over the past year — and the increasing likelihood that Iran will earn tens of billions of dollars more from oil exports under a new nuclear deal.

China’s Embrace of the Taliban Complicates US Afghanistan Strategy

Zane Zovak

“China is our most important partner and represents a fundamental and extraordinary opportunity for us,” Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said in September 2021, shortly after the Taliban retook power in Afghanistan. Late last month, China reciprocated this enthusiasm by hosting members of the Taliban in addition to the foreign ministers from Afghanistan’s neighbors to discuss the Taliban-led country’s economic development and security. Beijing’s courtship of the Taliban only adds to instability in the region, challenging the U.S. and its allies to find new ways to deal with the combined threat.

Panicky Markets Are the Greatest Danger to Global Food Supply

Sarah Taber

You might have seen some shocking numbers about how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected the global food supply—about how, for instance, Ukrainian and Russian wheat makes up a combined 20-30 percent of the world’s wheat exports. Yet the truth is there’s plenty to go around. We’re not facing a shortage; rather, we simply have enough wheat when we’re used to silo-busting gluts. The situation calls for math and common sense. But instead, wealthy countries have panicked. The fallout has landed on poor countries dependent on food imports, concentrated in the Middle East and North Africa. These countries now face hunger and political instability—not because there’s not enough food in the world but because wealthy countries lost their cool.

For first time, Ukraine to get US artillery in new $800M weapons package

VALERIE INSINNA

WASHINGTON: The US government is expanding the types of weaponry it’s providing to Ukraine in the latest $800 million arms package to include howitzers, artillery, unmanned boats for coastal defense and other equipment not part of previous assistance packages.

“This new package of assistance will contain many of the highly effective weapons systems we have already provided and new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine,” President Joe Biden said in a statement today following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Oil India suffers cyber attack, receives Rs 57 crore ransom demand

PSU major Oil India, which suffered a cyberattack disrupting its operations in Assam, has received a ransom demand of USD 75,00,000 (over Rs 57 crore) from the perpetrator, officials said on Wednesday.

US federal alert warns of the discovery of malicious cyber tools

Multiple US government agencies issued a joint alert Wednesday warning of the discovery of malicious cyber tools created by unnamed advanced threat actors that they said were capable of gaining “full system access” to multiple industrial control systems.

The public alert from the Energy and Homeland Security departments, the FBI and National Security Agency did not name the actors or offer details on the find. But their private sector cybersecurity partners said the evidence suggests Russia is behind the tools – and that they were configured to initially target North American energy concerns.

Like It or Not, Orban and the EU Are Stuck With Each Other

Andrew MacDowall

He’s been called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in the European Union and accused of “eliminating democracy,” and he’s become the poster child of the global hard right. Now Viktor Orban has won a fourth consecutive term as Hungarian prime minister in a landslide. In parliamentary elections on April 3, Orban’s Fidesz and its small satellite party KDNP took more than 50 percent of the vote, with the opposition coalition United for Hungary winning just 35 percent. The new far-right Our Homeland Movement also entered parliament with around 6 percent. The result will give the Fidesz-KDNP coalition 135 seats in the 199-seat parliament, a constitutional supermajority that will allow it to further marginalize the opposition.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Puts the Spotlight on Global Health Governance

After the novel coronavirus first emerged in late 2019 in Wuhan, China, its combination of transmissibility and lethality brought the world to a virtual standstill. Governments restricted movement, closed borders and froze economic activity in a desperate attempt to curb the spread of the virus. At best, they partially succeeded at slowing down the first wave, without stopping the subsequent second, third and in some cases fourth and fifth waves that experts had warned about. According to official records so far, more than 500 million people worldwide have been infected, and more than 6 million have died from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The actual toll of the virus is far worse and will continue to climb.

WHAT COMES NEXT IN UKRAINE: THREE SCENARIOS

Frank Hoffman

With their defeat in the Battle of Kyiv, Russian forces have started to concentrate in the east and south of Ukraine to build upon their greater advances there. Too many commentators have overlooked the battles in the south where Moscow’s troops were more successful in taking territory. The defense of Kyiv got all the media attention, as did Bucha, despite the wanton destruction of Mariupol. While it lost its battles in the north, the Russians have taken a swath of territory in the south and east that is roughly three times larger than the prewar area in the Donbas that the separatists held. Ukraine’s tenacious defenders have performed exceptionally well so far in the war, but continued success, especially in the south and east, cannot be assumed given the nature of the terrain there and current force levels. The next phase could generate larger and more decisive battles, depending upon the interaction of the contending strategies.

Why Russia’s Navy in Ukraine War is Doomed (or Irrelevant)

Brian E. Frydenborg

Ukraine is about to get (or maybe now just started receiving) Western anti-ship missiles and may even have its own advanced anti-ship missiles almost ready for deployment. A small number of such missiles could wipe out all of Russia’s big surface warships near Ukraine in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov or push Russian ships out of range and too far away to be able to meaningfully support Russia’s war effort. This missile technology in the hands of Ukraine’s competent and adaptive fighters will be a game-changer much like Javelin and other anti-tank missiles have been for Ukraine against Russian armor thus far in Putin’s failing war.

Cyberspace and War in Ukraine: Prepare for Worse

Lucas Kello, Monica Kaminska

Some observers have noted the absence of major cyber incidents during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The situation does not afford complacency, however. Despite the few breakdowns—so far—in cyberspace beyond Ukraine, their risk has increased rather than diminished. The apparent lull in international cyber activity related to the war is likely illusory; it portends a deterioration in the security of computer systems and networks in Russia and in the nations that sanctioned it or armed Ukraine. Below we explain why.

The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-Term Outcome

Anthony H. Cordesman

It is far too early to predict the ultimate outcome of the Ukraine War, but it is all too clear that no peace settlement or ceasefire is likely to eliminate a long period of military tension between the U.S. – including NATO and its allies – and anything approaching President Putin’s future version of Russia, nor will any resolution of the current conflict negate the risk of new forms of war. It is equally clear that the U.S. and NATO need to act as quickly as possible to prepare for an intense period of military competition and must create a more secure deterrent and improve their capability to defend against Russia.

This Is the War’s Decisive Moment

Eliot A. Cohen

The relatively brief but bloody war in Ukraine is entering its fourth phase. In the first, Russia tried to depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and sweep the country into its embrace in a three-day campaign; in the second, it attempted to conquer Ukraine—or at least its eastern half, including the capital, Kyiv—with armored assaults; in the third, defeated in the north, Russia withdrew its battered forces, massing instead in the southeastern and southern areas for the conquest of those parts of Ukraine. Now the fourth, and possibly decisive, phase is about to begin.

14 April 2022

Reflecting on the First Draft of History, One Week at a Time

Howard W. French

Editor’s note: This will be Howard French’s final weekly column for World Politics Review. We’d like to take this opportunity to thank Howard for the keen insights—born of his rich experience, creative intelligence and interdisciplinary thinking—that he has shared with WPR’s readers for the past three years. We wish him the best of luck in his future endeavors.

When I began writing a weekly global affairs column for World Politics Review nearly three years ago, things settled into an almost organic rhythm surprisingly quickly

Chinese State Media’s Global Influencer Operation

Lili Turner and Nirit Hinkis

Log into Facebook or Instagram and you’ll undoubtedly find yourself scrolling through the curated profiles of social media influencers. The most successful ones almost feel like close friends, sharing their latest cookie recipe, posting vacation photos, or ranting about some hot-button political issue. They capture our attention, cultivate our trust, and convince us to buy, feel, do. Brands and businesses are the most evident beneficiaries of this recent marketing strategy, but they’re not the only ones: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which has long struggled to find messengers that appeal to foreign audiences, has recently tapped into influencers’ remarkable power of persuasion in order to sell us the CCP itself and its controversial policies.

How China’s TikTok, Facebook influencers push propaganda

AMANDA SEITZ, ERIC TUCKER and MIKE CATALINI

WASHINGTON (AP) — To her 1.4 million followers across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook, Vica Li says she is a “life blogger” and “food lover” who wants to teach her fans about China so they can travel the country with ease.

“Through my lens, I will take you around China, take you into Vica’s life!” she says in a video posted in January to her YouTube and Facebook accounts, where she also teaches Chinese classes over Zoom.

China Tops Threats in New Defense Strategy

JACQUELINE FELDSCHER

China is the No. 1 priority in the new National Defense Strategy, according to an unclassified fact sheet released Monday evening by the Defense Department.

The fact sheet lists the Pentagon’s top four defense priorities, but makes clear that China is “our most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge for the department.”

Putin’s War Is Complicating India’s Middle Path Among Powers

Mujib Mashal

NEW DELHI — As international outrage over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boiled over, foreign ministers and envoys filed in to New Delhi, hoping to pull India off the fence and into clearer condemnation of Russia, its longtime ally.

Russia Has Fired 'Multiple' Hypersonic Missiles Into Ukraine, US General Confirms

PATRICK TUCKER

Russia has fired “multiple” hypersonic missiles at military targets in Ukraine, the top U.S. commander in Europe said on Tuesday, bringing some clarity to conflicting reports and claims.

On March 19, the Russian ministry of defense claimed that it had launched a Kinzhal, or Dagger, missile to strike a Ukrainian ammunition dump about 100 kilometers from the Romanian border.

Conflict in Ukraine

Yesterday I attended a webinar on the ongoing Russia - Ukraine War.

As I could not speak during the Q and A session. I sent the following to the Think Tank.

You may like to have a look.

PKM

1. Somehow my microphone could not be unmuted. May be due to poor internet connection. I could not air my views on the presentation.

2. I have the following points to make.

3. Predicting the future is difficult. Robert Gates conceded that U.S failed every time. Our PM said future war will be short, swift and intense. Even after seven weeks the war is not over yet. We may review this prediction of future war.

4. Surprise and Deception. Every tank, vehicle, arty gun, eqpt, units and formations were identified, well before the operations started, were available in net. In East Ladakh there is no cover. How do we achieve Surprise and Deception?

5. OSINT. Dr Seth Jone of CSIS identified Russia’s likely courses of action along each axis. War started as predicted. Of course no plan survives the first bullet fired. What is our OSINT org? Does MI have OSI engines or OSI centre. One of my friends, was in contact with me on the subject, recently write an excellent Manekshaw paper. Also may see my article in Fin Express on this issue.

6. We, in IA, should stop talking about Deterrence, dissuance, coercion, compellence and now Joe Biden’s integrated diterrence. What comes before what. Where were the deterrences in Eastern Ladakh when the Chinese came in?

7. Same is for soft, smart, sharp & now Discourse Power. Don’t go by all these fancy terms. Diplomats use these to waffle and confuse. They have lost Hazipir Pass, 93,000 POW and now Kailash Range won by blood and guts of Indian armed forces. Too much emphasis is being given on these terms.

8. We should remain firmly on ground. Make no mistake, it is conventional war. Character of war changes, tech will change, war between tech and anti-technology will go on. Psy ops and its new avtar IW was always there. In 1971 we dropped leaflets, today it may be done through social media.

9. Point is, for the last 30 years we have been talking about IW. Who will do it? What is the org? Who is the lead agency? Against China, or in TAR how do we carry out Psy ops or whatever name e.g influence, strategic communications et al, you call it? Less theory, I would like to know more on what can be done on ground. In my opinion IW has to be done by NSCS or MHA, coordinating with other ministries. Armed forces can be only a part of the wheel.

10. Complacency after winning a conflict is astounding. Armenia paid for its complacency in conflict with Azerbaijan. Same with Russians after their success in 2014 in Ukraine. How come basic drills like camouflaging tanks was not done by Armenians. Long convoy of Armoured vehicle giving lucrative targets to Ukrainian forces is incomprehensible.

11.Myth of short, swift, intense war has to be busted. You prepare for a short war and facing a protracted war your logistics, ammunition become critical. What is our ammunition scale of intense rate of fire, for how many days? Is there a need to have a re look at the present scale of ammunition?

12.On 24 Feb itself a satellite network owned by Americans and providing SATCOM cover to Ukraine was taken out by Russia. Not enough is being talked of about this incident. What is our defence against such attacks to our satl communication network?

13.Neutrality of big IT companies like FB, Twitter, Google, Microsoft have been totally exposed. Look, what the social media companies did in Gaza conflict last year and what they are doing now. FB is officially giving statement about allowing Azov Battalion news. Microsoft is defending Ukraine’s cyber network.

14.FIBUA or MOUT has to be relooked. All our procedures of Isolation, investment & capture of a node is archaic. Against our western neighbours these are all built up areas, small townships.

15.Failure of Russian army units. Retired Russian Army Generals warned about the pitfalls of attack on Ukraine. Red herrings were raised. Not taken note of.

16.Riddle

a) In EW, Russia is the best. No effect.

b) Why the most modern weapon systems are not being fielded by Russia. Where is the Armata tanks?

c) Russia is very good at theory. Big Exercise like Zapad is held every four years, the latest was held in September 2021 The large-scale military drills, conducted in western Russia and Belarus, involved 200,000 troops from Russia. Indian Armed forces with 200 personnel from Naga Regiments were to participate. Lessons are learned from these exercises . Russian army, as a professional body would be knowing their strength and weaknesses. Then why this poor performance.

17.Quality of Eqpt. After Galwan lot of major eqpts were purchased on emergency basis. Are Mig 29 or Sukhoi-30MKIs inferior eqpt? We need to be careful in our statements.

18. An impression was given that Ukraine Army will capitulate once the war starts. But the maths does not support this statement. Ukrainian Army is two lakh 9 thousand strong organised in 27 composite brigades. It has fifty thousand irregulars/ reserves/ paramilitary whatever you call,

who are well trained. The Ukrainian Army, after 2014, has been trained by NATO specially USA. Has some of the finest & latest hand held anti tk msl like Javelin & MANPADS. The Turkish drones were active. Russia had only1 lakh 90000 troops deployed. FIBUA and occupying land require large number of troops. The figures do not support the argument that Ukraine was an easy meal for the Russian bear.

Collective Defense is Now at the Forefront of NATO

Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer

The American policeman in Europe is back. Under pressure from the US Congress and NATO’s eastern allies, the Biden administration is recalibrating its defense posture in Europe in a ways unseen since the end of the Cold War.

Ukraine prevents new Russian cyber attack targeting electricity grid, but warns more may be on the way

Alexander Martin

Ukrainian authorities have accused hackers working for Russian military intelligence of a new cyber attack targeting the country's electricity grid and power supply.

The attack was planned to take place last Friday, 8 April, when the malware targeting an unidentified company would have shut down several high-voltage electrical substations in Ukraine.

While the country's cyber security experts managed to prevent any disruption to power supply, there are concerns further attacks could be successful ahead of a renewed push from Russia in the east.

Ukraine Says It Thwarted a Sophisticated Russian Cyberattack on Its Power Grid

Kate Conger

WASHINGTON — Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that they had thwarted a Russian cyberattack on Ukraine’s power grid that could have knocked out power to two million people, raising fears that Moscow will increase its use of digital weapons in a country already pummeled by war.

Why India Won’t Condemn Russia

Ravi Agrawal

As much of the Western world has united to punish Russia over its unilateral invasion of Ukraine, India has recently come under the spotlight for refusing to formally condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions. Over the last several weeks, New Delhi has received high-level envoys from countries across the global political spectrum: Russia and China, for example, but also Austria, Germany, Mexico, Britain, the United States, and more. The spate of diplomatic activity is ostensibly aimed at trying to influence New Delhi’s stance.

We Assumed Small States Were Pushovers. Ukraine Proved Us Wrong

Alexander Clarkson

At a time when old certainties have been shaken and the pace of events is overwhelming, it can be difficult to assess what the long-term impact of a geopolitical shock might be for the global order. In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the widespread shock that such a calamity could befall millions of people made it difficult to think through the unanticipated consequences of such a profound rupture of the international state system. Yet after five weeks of brutal war triggered by a criminalized Russian state under President Vladimir Putin, there are now a few indicators that can help give a sense of how the world around us is changing, and what the long-term impact of these changes might be.

Russian Scientists Say They Have A New System to Monitor Attacks on the Russian Internet

PATRICK TUCKER

As Russia rains artillery fire down on Ukrainian cities, cyber attackers from around the world have been targeting Russian media, cryptocurrency services, and retail brands with denial of service attacks. A group of Russian scientists say that they’ve developed a new tool to block such attacks—but even that is an indication that severe economic sanctions are changing life in Russia.

How China’s united front system works overseas

Ryan Fedasiuk

Led by United Front Work Departments of Chinese Communist Party committees at each echelon of government, the united front system is a complex and opaque set of organisations designed to advance the CCP’s influence in industry and civil society. Within China, the united front system has several responsibilities, which range from repressing ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang to grooming members of China’s minor political parties to take up positions in government.

How The US Military Is Training Ukraine To Fight Russia

Stavros Atlamazoglou

The U.S. and its European partners and allies have been critical in helping the Ukrainian military halt the Russian invasion. Scores of countries have sent tens of thousands of weapons systems to Ukraine. The U.S. alone has sent over 10,000 anti-armor systems and close to $3 billion in military aid.

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