Pros And Cons Of India’s Support To Mauritius Against UK On Chagos Issue – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

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India aims to checkmate China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean but advocating the retrieval of the Chagos archipelago from the UK could also hamper India’s ties with the West.

During a recent visit to Mauritius, India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar told Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth that New Delhi will continue to support Mauritius in its fight to retrieve the Chagos archipelago from the UK.

Jaishankar told Prime Minister Jugnauth: “As we look at our deep and enduring relationship, Prime Minister, I would like to again assure you today that on the issue of Chagos, India will continue its consistent support to Mauritius in line with its principal stand on decolonisation and support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations”

Reciprocating Jaishankar’s gesture, Mauritius’ Foreign Minister Maneesh Gobin said on X: “We express our deep gratitude to Dr. S. Jaishankar for reaffirming India’s consistent support to Mauritius regarding the Chagos archipelago, in alignment with India’s principled stance on decolonisation, sovereignty, and Territorial integrity.”

A risky bet: Should India go ahead with the Teesta project with Bangladesh? - Opinion

Ninad D Sheth

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Sheikh Hasina's recent trip to Beijing provided a sobering lesson in the art of realpolitik. Her expectations of securing $5 billion in loans and grants were swiftly quashed, with a curt meeting with Xi Jinping and a paltry $250 million offered. The Chinese state media's minimal coverage underscored the rebuke. Beijing clearly intended to reassert its dominance over Dhaka, but this strategy appears to have misfired.

In response, Hasina has turned to India, eyeing a $1 billion financing plan for the Teesta River redevelopment project. Should India embrace this initiative, it would mark a significant diplomatic and financial breakthrough. The reservoirs and irrigation systems envisaged could resolve long-standing water-sharing disputes, while enhanced economic zones and waterway connectivity could link ports like Chittagong to India, yielding substantial financial benefits for both nations.

Yet, this manoeuvre warrants careful scrutiny. Historically, India has shown magnanimity in water-sharing agreements, but it must now balance regional goodwill against domestic imperatives. In West Bengal, there is considerable disquiet over the Teesta allocations. Given that 87 per cent of the river lies within Indian borders, overly generous concessions could deplete India's own water resources and incite political backlash.

China’s Leaders Point to Economic Threats but Show No Sign of Changing Tack

Rebecca Feng & Chun Han Wong

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping and several hundred other top Communist Party officials huddled in Beijing this week to plot a path forward for their country’s sagging economy. The outline they released after four days of meetings suggests a future that looks more or less like the present.

That fidelity to China’s current course signals that Xi remains committed to his vision of state-led development, even as unease festers—among ordinary Chinese and foreign investors—over his stewardship of the world’s second-largest economy.

Economic growth has slowed sharply as China continues to struggle with an unbalanced recovery from the Covid pandemic. In a communiqué issued Thursday at the end of the meeting, known as the Third Plenum, the party’s governing Central Committee showed unusual candor in acknowledging the problems the economy faces.

The document highlighted risks in key areas such as the property sector, local-government debt, and small and midsize financial institutions. It also promised to tackle lackluster demand, a problem that has dogged the economy.

The discussion of specific threats to growth is unusual in Third Plenum communiqués, which in the past have typically referred to risks only in vague terms.

Can the U.S. and China Cooperate on AI?

Anthony De Luca-Baratta

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In 2012, DQN, an AI system developed by then-start-up DeepMind, discovered how to play classic Atari computer games with human-level skill, a major breakthrough at the time. By 2023, GPT-4 had become the most powerful and general AI model to date, showcasing the ability to ace several standardized tests, including the SAT and LSAT, pulling ahead of human doctors on several medical tasks, constructing full-scale business plans for startups, translating natural language to computer code, and producing poetry in the style of famous poets.

We haven’t seen anything yet. There are several reasons to believe that AI systems will continue to become more powerful, more general, and more ubiquitous.

First, there is the recent development and rapid improvement of machine learning algorithms known as foundation models, which take the knowledge learned from one task and apply it to other seemingly unrelated tasks. This ability makes them incredibly versatile and, thus, incredibly powerful. Large language models like GPT-4 are infant technologies that seem likely to undergo many more rounds of improvement as private and public money continue to pour into AI research. They require large amounts of data on which to train, which in turn require the appropriate hardware on which to be processed.

Breaking The Shield: Countering Drone Defenses – Analysis

Zachary Kallenborn and Marcel Plichta

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Unmanned systems will help save Taiwan.1 At least, that is what some recent war games suggest. A 2020 RAND study conducted and analyzed a series of U.S.-China war games and simulations and found that a preponderance of interconnected and attritable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) would prove a decisive part of a near-peer conflict against China.2 Similarly, a Center for a New American Security war game held in August 2022 recommended that the United States should invest in unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and that Taiwan should invest in UAVs to give it an edge.3 Beyond hypotheticals, conflicts in Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Yemen show that drones are quickly becoming a central area for development and innovation in warfare at all levels of technological sophistication.

Drone defenses are moving fast, too. The Department of Defense (DOD) planned to spend over $700 million on counter UAVs (c-UAVs) in fiscal year 2023 alone, almost all going to research and development.4 The global c-UAV market is forecast to grow to about $5 billion in 2029.5 C-UAV and drone defense may minimize the effects of drones in high-intensity conflict; however, if counters to drone defenses are developed that mitigate their ability to threaten, drones could retain their utility. The evolving interaction among drones, drone defenses, and counters to drone defenses will be critical in determining the net effect of drones on global security.

Why can't China turn its economy around?

Joel Mathis

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China's economy is stumbling, again. Slower-than-expected second-quarter growth statistics are putting "further pressure on the Communist Party" as its leaders gathered this week to plan the way forward, said The New York Times. Those leaders have tried to offset the country's longstanding real estate slump with a boost to export-driven manufacturing, but that has led to a "glut of goods, from chemicals to cars" and a backlash — in the form of tariffs — from countries whose leaders "fear the flood of Chinese goods will overwhelm local industries." The result? China is "limping along precariously," said one analyst.

"Since late 2022, China's policymakers have introduced a slew of measures to try to revive the market," said The Wall Street Journal. It's not working. And "expectations are low" that this week's meeting — known as the "Third Plenum" — will offer a "significant course correction" to start truly turning the Chinese economy around. Instead, it's expected that President Xi Jinping will double down on his manufacturing-centric export strategy while neglecting efforts to boost spending by Chinese consumers at home. Economists are skeptical that would produce anything but a new round of trade wars. "The Chinese economy is foundering," said Cornell University's Eswar Prasad.

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Into the Minds of China’s Military AI Experts - ANALYS

Sam Bresnick

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The United States and China recently held their first official dialogue on artificial intelligence risks. Though a step in the right direction, the meeting is unlikely to resolve bilateral tensions over the development and deployment of AI-enabled military systems.

Quietly and Deep Underground, Israelis Are Preparing for Another War

Carrie Keller-Lynn

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Above ground, Rambam Health Care Campus treats the wounded from the fight in Gaza. Below ground, northern Israel’s leading hospital is preparing for what could be the country’s next war—an all-out conflict with Hezbollah.

Four operating rooms, a maternity ward and a dialysis center are among the facilities the hospital has set up three levels down in its underground parking garage, part of its plan to keep functioning if the daily tit for tat exchange of fire between Israel and the U.S.-designated terror group across the border with Lebanon escalates.

Hospital beds are set up next to oxygen and suction lines embedded within the parking lot’s walls, medication is piled on rollable shelves, and ventilation ducts have been strung from the ceiling. Doctors practice evacuating their wards to the parking garage, primed to transfer operations underground within eight hours and get ready for new patients.

“We expect to have thousands of casualties over here,” said Dr. Michael Halberthal, the hospital’s director. “This is what we’re ready for.”

Healthcare centers, emergency services and residents across Israel are preparing for a war that could far outstrip the damage of the conflict with Hamas. Hezbollah is better trained and more heavily armed, with a missile stockpile experts estimate at 150,000 projectiles capable of pinning down the entire country.

The Senile Superpower?

Joshua Byun and Austin Carson

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At age 81, U.S. President Joe Biden is objectively old, but what was striking about his June 27 debate with former U.S. President Donald Trump was just how old he looked and sounded. In the weeks since, Biden’s unsettling performance has triggered a political crisis within the Democratic Party. His campaign has claimed that the president merely had “a bad night” and has cited, among other things, the clean bill of health from his yearly physical exams and the exhaustion induced by recent foreign travel. 

Want “Strategically Minded Warfighters?” Then Make “Intellectualism” A Military Value

David P. Oakley & Mike Obadal

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For over a decade, U.S. military leadership has acknowledged inadequacy in how it intellectually prepares practitioners to face a dynamic and uncertain environment. Despite this acknowledgment, the persistent claim of a broken Professional Military Education (PME) system is proof of either an unresponsive PME or that PME is serving as a useful scapegoat to shield addressing other fundamental issues.[i] There is some truth in the former, but the latter is what has stifled change. Although it is convenient to solely blame PME institutions and their faculty, it is also unfair because it ignores organizational and cultural issues within the military that affect how education is perceived and incorporated into organizational and individual development, thus limiting its value. If the U.S. military wants to harness education to nurture the practitioner, they must appreciate the organizational and cultural issues that currently limit its utility.

First, military leadership must not only acknowledge the failure of an “episodic” approach but prioritize and resource recurring educational opportunities that complement the needed year-long educational experiences. Second, they must appreciate that, while practitioners require training and education, these are distinct and serve different yet complementary purposes. Finally, and most important, they must prioritize intellectual development to the same degree they prioritize physical fitness and incorporate “intellectualism” as a military value.

The Red Sea Crisis Goes Beyond the Houthis

Johnnie Carson, Alex Rondos, Susan Stigant, and Michael Woldemariam

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The Red Sea is in crisis. At the center of the storm are Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have unleashed a wave of attacks on ships traversing one of the world’s most pivotal maritime straits, putatively in support of Hamas’s war against Israel. The Houthi gambit in the Red Sea is imposing serious costs on global trade, as did the problem of Somali piracy, which reached its peak in 2010. The United States and some of its allies have stepped in to militarily suppress the threat, bombing Houthi positions inside Yemen. 

Russia has upper hand in ground war – but not at sea

BASIL GERMOND

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The past few days have marked a significant moment in the maritime war between Russia and Ukraine. On Monday, July 15, Ukraine’s navy spokesman, Dmytro Pletenchuk, claimed: “The last patrol ship of the Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation is bolting from our Crimea just now. Remember this day.”

This symbolic milestone is a reminder of Ukraine’s consistent success on the maritime front of the war. While Kyiv’s ground troops continue to struggle and cede ground at points along the battlefield, particularly in the east of Ukraine, it’s a different story at sea.

Despite starting the war with a massive numerical advantage, Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been unable to contribute to the war in any meaningful way. Moscow has lost control of the Black Sea, while even Crimea’s ports – including Sevastopol, traditionally a symbol of Russia’s power – can no longer be seen as safe bases for its warships.

The Imperial Presidency Unleashed

Sarah Binder, James Goldgeier, and Elizabeth N. Saunders

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This week in Milwaukee, Republicans have gathered to formally nominate Donald Trump for president—as they have twice before. But this time, they meet under vastly different circumstances. Most obviously, they are nominating the former president just five days after a man tried to assassinate him during a campaign rally. But they are also nominating Trump in the wake of two extraordinary legal developments. The more recent of the two is the dismissal of the classified documents case in Florida. The other, more enduring one is the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. United States—which grants presidents sweeping immunity from criminal prosecution after leaving office.

In his majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts declared that presidents—and former President Trump in particular—have absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for their exercise of “core” executive powers. The court also granted ex-presidents presumptive immunity for actions at the “outer perimeter” of their responsibilities. They are not immune for their “unofficial” acts, but the opinion’s distinction between what is official and unofficial is so blurry that it may be meaningless. As Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote in a bracing dissent, Trump v. United States makes the president “a king above the law.”

US, Panama Mind the Darien Gap

Allison Fedirka

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The Darien Gap – once considered little more than a narrow, impenetrable jungle along Colombia’s border with Panama – has slowly become one of the most heavily traversed migrant routes this side of the Atlantic. New Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino has announced plans to shut the passage down to curb unauthorized immigration and asked Washington to help. This kind of bilateral cooperation illustrates how the pressures brought by migration are shaping regional relationships and, in some cases, driving countries apart.

For Panama, stemming the flow of migration through the Darien Gap is a matter of security and economics. The gap has been a hotspot for illicit activity since well before the government began tracking the number of people who used it for migration. And when it started to do so in 2010, the number was negligible. Those who used the gap tended to hail from Haiti and Cuba. Since 2021, however, annual migrant flows have skyrocketed, largely because of the exodus of Venezuelans leaving their country. The more migrants pass through the gap, the more sophisticated the routes become. As a result, criminal groups are thriving such that the Darien Gap is used more by criminal groups for operations and transport than by migrants seeking work in the north. Panama – a country of just 4.4. million residents – simply cannot afford to absorb the hundreds of thousands of migrants that traverse the gap every year. And even if it had the resources to halt migration on its own, it would risk upsetting its neighbors. This explains why Panama reached out to the U.S. for help.

Drone attack on Israel’s Tel Aviv leaves one dead, at least 10 injured

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Yemen’s Houthi group has claimed responsibility for an apparent drone attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, which killed one person and injured at least 10.

A spokesperson for the Houthi armed forces said in a post on social media on Friday that the Iran-aligned group had “targeted ‘Tel Aviv’ in occupied Palestine”.

It claimed that it used a new drone “capable of bypassing interceptor systems and being unable to be detected by radars”.

The Israeli military said it had opened an investigation into the large explosion near the United States embassy office in the city and would determine why the country’s air defence systems were not activated to intercept the “aerial target”.

“We’re talking about a large UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] that can fly large distances,” a military official told a briefing for journalists following the strike. “We’re not ruling out any possibilities right now.”

Israel’s air force has increased patrols to “protect the country’s skies”, the military said in a post on social media.

Quick Take: Why the Russia-North Korea Treaty may not be in India's Interest

ANUSHKA SAXENA

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During a recent visit by the Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang to meet North Korean General Secretary Kim Jong-un, the two sides concluded a landmark agreement to formalise their military-strategic relationship. Titled the ‘Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the DPRK and the Russian Federation’, the agreement between two nations has spurred speculation as to its potential impacts for regional and global security. However, a discussion of its impacts on India is missing.

This is concerning because when one peruses the contents of the Treaty, one can infer that its various provisions run contrary to India's vision for the world order. In the very preamble of the Treaty, Russia and North Korea affirm that their joint goal is to build a “new, fair and equal international order,” and in doing so, aspire for “global stability.” Contemporary geopolitics is increasingly witnessing the emergence of a Russia-China axis founded on a sentiment of anti-Westernism, and important partners of the two countries, such as Iran and North Korea, are being co-opted into the axis. Given that India often positions itself as a bridge and a balancer between Russia and the US-led West, such an axis portends to create a power dynamic that would be simply unacceptable to India’s strategic goals.

Coming to Ukraine’s Defense: Leveraging the European Investment Bank for Ukrainian Drone Manufacturers

Heidi Crebo-Rediker

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Dual-Use Investment Rule Change Can Unlock New Funds

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues into its third year, the fast-evolving landscape of modern warfare presents the European Union with a unique strategic opportunity to harness the capabilities and financial resources of the European Investment Bank (EIB) to bolster not only Ukraine’s military capabilities but also enhance Europe’s defense industrial complex. By investing in innovative Ukrainian drone manufacturers today, the European Union can leverage global financial markets through the EIB to facilitate significant advancements in defense technologies that serve both Ukraine’s immediate and Europe’s long-term security interests.

As the financing institution of the European Union and the world’s largest multilateral lender and borrower in international capital markets, the EIB is well positioned to support loans to and investments in dual-use companies (those that produce products for civilian and military use). The recent approval of the EIB’s new Security and Defense Action Plan now permits the bank to lend to dual-use companies primarily for military purpose and extends this financing policy to small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) and innovative startups in security and defense, specifically referencing drones as a sector for potential investment. The EIB is now a powerful financing arrow in the quiver that Russia cannot match.

Netanyahu’s High-Stakes Visit to Washington

Steven A. Cook

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What will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aim to achieve during his visit to the U.S. Capitol next week? Will talks on ending Israel’s war with Hamas see progress?

Netanyahu has two principal goals for this visit. First, he wants to demonstrate that he has not undermined Israel’s relationship with the United States, as his domestic critics have accused. His July 24 address to a joint session of Congress will be a good place to start. The prime minister will also want to demonstrate that his ties with the White House remain strong despite differences between him and U.S. President Joe Biden over the conduct of Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip. Separate from his speech on Capitol Hill, Netanyahu will highlight for Israelis just how much support there is for Israel in the halls of Congress when he meets with the leadership of both the Democratic and Republican parties.

Second, Netanyahu will endeavor to shift the conversation away from the conflict in Gaza toward the threat that Iran and its proxies pose not just to Israel, but also to the United States. This is critically important for Netanyahu and Israel as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the country’s military, intends to wind down major operations in Gaza and turn its attention to southern Lebanon, home to the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Netanyahu clearly wants to elicit both military and diplomatic U.S. support should the Israelis decide to escalate their ongoing border conflict with the militant group. The Israeli government cannot tolerate Hezbollah’s presence on the border and the fact that Israel has had to evacuate eighty thousand residents in its northern communities. Meanwhile, the Biden administration remains hesitant to get further involved as fears mount over the potential for a broader regional conflict. Netanyahu’s visit, and the likely support he will receive from members of Congress, is intended to apply pressure on Biden during a tough presidential election.

Russian Casualties in Ukraine Continue to Rise

Valery Dzutsati

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As Russian casualties in Moscow’s war against Ukraine reach staggering heights, the Kremlin and wider Russian society are increasingly feeling the pain of war (see EDM, July 10). The Ukrainian government estimates Russian losses, including the wounded, at nearly 550,000 individuals since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 (Minfin, July 5). As the number of casualties mount and the Kremlin continues to recruit more Russians to throw into the “meat grinder” in Ukraine, the Russian population may become fed up with the Kremlin’s war and begin to fight back, exacerbating what is already a tense domestic environment (see EDM, November 27, December 7, 11, 2023, January 23, February 8, April 16, 18).

Independent Russian news outlets Mediazona and Meduza, in collaboration with the Russian service of BBC News, recently investigated Russian losses in greater detail using various methodologies (Mediazona, July 5). Researchers examined the difference between the normal and excessive number of new cases in the publicly available National Register of Inheritance to estimate Russian losses. According to the authors, as of the beginning of this summer, approximately 120,000 people in the Russian military have died since the start of the war. Moreover, the rate of losses appears to be rising and currently amounts to a daily average of about 200–250. In examining social media posts, media publications, and government announcements, the researchers established the names of nearly 57,000 individuals who have died in Ukraine. The type of troops, recruitment method, age, date of demise, and regional affiliations are also available (Meduza, July 5). This data is incomplete but still provides valuable insights. (For analysis on Russian combat losses in Ukraine, deduced from Rosstat’s ‘Unassigned Deaths’ category, see EDM, October 19, 2023.)

What the Microsoft Outage Reveals

Samuel Arbesman

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It happened again: yet another cascading failure of technology. In recent years we’ve had internet blackouts, aviation-system debacles, and now a widespread outage due to an issue affecting Microsoft systems, which has grounded flights and disrupted a range of other businesses, including health-care providers, banks, and broadcasters.

Why are we so bad at preventing these? Fundamentally, because our technological systems are too complicated for anyone to fully understand. These are not computer programs built by a single individual; they are the work of many hands over the span of many years. They are the interaction of countless components that might have been designed in a specific way for reasons that no one remembers. Many of our systems involve massive numbers of computers, any one of which might malfunction and bring down all the rest. And many have millions of lines of computer code that no one entirely grasps.

We don’t appreciate any of this until things go wrong. We discover the fragility of our technological infrastructure only when it’s too late.

So how can we make our systems fail less often?

We need to get to know them better. The best way to do this, ironically, is to break them. Much as biologists irradiate bacteria to cause mutations that show us how the bacteria function, we can introduce errors into technologies to understand how they’re liable to fail.

The AI-Powered Future of coding Is Near

WILL KNIGHT

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I am by no means a skilled coder, but thanks to a free program called SWE-agent, I was just able to debug and fix a gnarly problem involving a misnamed file within different code repositories on the software-hosting site GitHub.

I pointed SWE-agent at an issue on GitHub and watched as it went through the code and reasoned about what might be wrong. It correctly determined that the root cause of the bug was a line that pointed to the wrong location for a file, then navigated through the project, located the file, and amended the code so that everything ran properly. It’s the kind of thing that an inexperienced developer (such as myself) might spend hours trying to debug.

Many coders already use artificial intelligence to write software more quickly. GitHub Copilot was the first integrated developer environment to harness AI, but lots of IDEs will now automatically complete chunks of code when a developer starts typing. You can also ask AI questions about code or have it offer suggestions on how to improve what you’re working on.

Companies around the world hit by Microsoft outage

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One of the biggest-ever IT outages has disrupted companies across the world, from airlines to financial services and media groups, after what should have been a routine software update cascaded into crisis.

Thousands of flights were cancelled on Friday, workers in cities from Tokyo to London were unable to log on to their computers, hospital operations were postponed and some television channels went off air.

The outage has been blamed on a security update from US group CrowdStrike, which caused a problem with Microsoft’s Windows. PCs and servers are affected, suggesting that millions of computers may need to be fixed for the issue to be resolved.

More than 12 hours after the problems began, some services, including airlines and media groups, had begun to come back online. But the unprecedented scale of the fault means it could take days for every Windows user to recover.

“I don’t think it’s too early to call it: this will be the largest IT outage in history,” said Troy Hunt, a prominent security consultant, in a social media post. “This is basically what we were all worried about with Y2K, except it’s actually happened this time.”

What We Know About the Global Microsoft Outage

Eshe Nelson and Danielle Kaye

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Across the world, critical businesses and services including airlines, hospitals, train networks and TV stations, were disrupted on Friday by a global tech outage affecting Microsoft users.

In many countries, flights were grounded, workers could not get access to their systems and, in some cases, customers could not make card payments in stores. While some of the problems were resolved within hours, many businesses, websites and airlines continued to struggle to recover.

What happened?

A series of outages rippled across the globe as information displays, login systems and broadcasting networks went dark.

The problem affecting the majority of services was caused by a flawed update by CrowdStrike, an American cybersecurity firm, whose systems are intended to protect users from hackers. Microsoft said on Friday that it was aware of an issue affecting machines running “CrowdStrike Falcon.”

But Microsoft had also said there was an earlier outage affecting U.S. users of Azure, its cloud service system. Some users may have been affected by both. Even as CrowdStrike sent out a fix, some systems were still affected by midday in the United States as businesses needed to make manual updates to their systems to resolve the issue.

Army Modernization: Actions Needed to Support Fielding New Equipment

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What GAO Found

The Army's new approach to generate ready forces, the Regionally Aligned Readiness and Modernization Model (ReARMM), is key to the Army realizing its modernization investments. These investments have totaled $46.5 billion since fiscal year 2021. The Army has adopted new acquisition approaches to rapidly develop multiple types of modernized equipment, which it has categorized into six modernization priorities. Using ReARMM, the Army had fielded six new priority equipment efforts as of November 2023, with ten more scheduled over the next 2 years.

Since it began implementing ReARMM in fiscal year 2020, the Army has generally met its deployment requirements, according to officials. It has organized most of its units, such as brigade combat teams, into ReARMM phases, including one designated for equipping. It has also aligned the units to specific geographic regions. However, some Army National Guard units received equipment, transferred from regular Army units, that was in poor condition. This led the National Guard units to incur unexpected costs, additional labor hours, and training delays. For example, beginning in May 2022, the Army transferred 138 displaced Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the Tennessee Army National Guard. The Army is planning to transfer additional equipment to the Army National Guard under ReARMM. Identifying and implementing corrective actions to reasonably assure that transferred equipment meets mission-capable condition standards would reduce the risk of units incurring unexpected costs and delays in their modernization and training.

Access Denied? Non-Aligned State Decisions to Grant Access During War

Emily Ellinger

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How do state leaders determine whether they should grant military access to outside powers during a war in which their country is not involved? In many cases, leaders may feel they have pre-committed to a decision either through an existing alliance with a foreign power or through their own involvement in the conflict. The decision to grant access therefore becomes secondary to the decision to become directly involved. But for states that are neutral and still have the option of remaining uninvolved, the decision to grant access becomes harder. During a large-scale war involving multiple states and fronts, a would-be host nation must weigh the potential benefits and costs of providing access in a condensed, high-pressure timeline. While examples of such decisions are rare, they can offer valuable insights into the behavior of state leaders whose countries are perceived as being strategically located.

To examine how outside powers negotiate access to neutral states during war, I chose two historical cases: British efforts to gain access to Greece in World War I and to Sweden in World War II. In both cases, the potential host country faced possible retaliation for their decision from belligerents on both sides through punitive economic, political, or military actions. Greek and Swedish state leaders had to carefully consider this possibility while simultaneously evaluating how their decisions would affect their country’s economic well-being as well as their own political survival.

Modi’s China Bind

Sushant Singh

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When Narendra Modi won a third term as India’s prime minister last month, he was congratulated by all the major global leaders. Except one. Xi Jinping, China’s president and general secretary of the Communist Party, did not send a congratulatory message to the Indian leader he has met more than 20 times in the past decade. In 2019, Xi was among the first to publicly congratulate Modi when he was reelected as prime minister. This year, Xi has conveyed his regards to Shehbaz Sharif in Pakistan and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh when they became prime ministers. It was Chinese Premier Li Qiang who sent a brief congratulatory message to Modi a week later, further underscoring the absence of any felicitous missive from Xi.

On Gender Apartheid

Mélissa Cornet

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The question​ of women’s status has been central to the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, with more than eighty edicts curtailing their rights since the movement returned to power almost three years ago. The Taliban prohibits women from going to secondary school or university, from working in the public sector or for NGOs, from leaving home uncovered and unaccompanied, from visiting bathhouses, the gym, beauty salons, parks – the list goes on. Taliban policy, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan said on 18 June, is ‘motivated by and results in a profound rejection of the full humanity of women and girls’.

Afghan women have often been used as an emblem for a particular position: do you stand for modernity or for tradition? King Abdur Rahman Khan, who reigned from 1880 until 1901, improved the legal status of women, in opposition to conservative tribal law. King Amanullah Khan and his wife, Queen Soraya, who ruled between 1919 and 1929, campaigned against veil-wearing and polygamy, and encouraged girls’ education, as part of the wave of modernism also seen in Iran and Turkey at the time. But the brief reign of Habibullah II, between January and October 1929, saw most of Afghanistan’s gender equality laws abrogated. Later rulers were cautious about reform, worried about antagonising tribal leaders. Things changed slowly until the communists took over in 1978. After that, women wore short skirts, went to and taught at university, worked as doctors and nurses and became members of parliament. That period came to an end in 1992 when the mujahidin took over and the civil war began.

As Protests Erupt, a Rocky Start to Sheikh Hasina’s Fourth Consecutive Term

Saqlain Rizve

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Six months have passed since Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won office for the fourth consecutive time through a controversial and non-competitive election. However, in contrast to the ease with which Hasina’s Awami League won re-election, her 2024-2029 term is not going smoothly thus far.

Currently, Bangladesh is witnessing a huge student-led protest over demands to abolish the quota system in government jobs. The protests started on July 1 and intensified on July 5, when the high court gave a verdict to keep the quota system in place. For over two weeks, students across all public universities have come into the streets to call for abolishing the quotas.

In a major escalation of violence on July 16, at least six people, including three students, were killed and several hundred injured in clashes between anti-quota protesters and pro-Awami League activists and police across the country

Update on the Armed Resistance in Myanmar’s Kachin State

Michael Martin

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The armed struggle against Myanmar’s military junta, the State Administrative Council (SAC), has been underway for more than three years. Different armed groups are waging the battle to topple the SAC in different regions of the country. In Myanmar’s northeastern Kachin State, the armed group leading the fight is the Kachin Independence Army, or KIA.

Brief History of the KIA

The KIA was formed in 1961 with the stated goal of establishing an autonomous sovereign state for the Kachin people. Over the following 30 years, the KIA and its affiliated political organization, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), were able to secure control over portions of eastern Kachin State and establish an administrative capital in the city of Laiza. In 1994, the KIA and KIO signed a ceasefire agreement with Myanmar’s military junta, the State Law and Order Restoration Council. The ceasefire by and large held until 2010.

In 2010, Myanmar’s renamed military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), issued an ultimatum to all the country’s ethnic armed organizations (EAOs)—accept transformation into a border guard force under the command of the military junta or face the resumption of armed conflict. The KIA and KIO rejected the ultimatum, and the SPDC broke the ceasefire in June 2011. Over the next 10 years, there was intermittent fighting between the KIA and the Myanmar military.

Philippines Push Back Over China’s South Sea Actions – Analysis

Rorie Fajardo-Jarilla

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As the Philippines’ leaders weigh the next steps in response to increasing tension with China in the disputed South China Sea, Manila appears to be belatedly reflecting public sentiment and calling for its claims to the resource-rich territory to be protected – and gaining political support for it.

In July 2016, the Philippines won a landmark decision by an arbitration court at The Hague which ruled that China had no territorial claims to the country’s waters. The court also said the continued presence of China’s vessels, island-building, patrolling, and other actions violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines.

Nonetheless, China has not abandoned its historical claim to neither these waters, nor others claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan.

The latest confrontation erupted on June 17 during the Philippines’ resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal in the country’s waters in the South China Sea. This is where the Philippine Navy vessel BRP Sierra Madre is stationed, with marines manning the vessel symbolising the country’s last line of defence against increasing Chinese incursion. Since the grounded ship serves as a military station, the navy conducts routine resupply missions of food, fuel, and other necessities.

Can China and the US Find Common Ground on Military Use of AI?

Mathew Jie Sheng Yeo and Hyeyoon Jeong

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The day when artificial intelligence (AI) makes important military decisions is no longer in the distant future but is happening in the present reality. In the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, the AI-based targeting system “Lavender” has been used by the Israeli military to deadly effect. Utilizing AI, Lavender generates a kill list and identifies targets for the human operators to approve any strikes.

To be sure, while it can be argued that there is still human autonomy within Lavender, the human operator cannot maintain full control. Is the operator fully cognizant of the developments on the ground? Has the operator considered all options and possibilities? Was the decision influenced by automation bias? These questions are cause to doubt the full efficacy of human autonomy in a weapon system, much less in combat situations. Indeed, the Israeli operators, with only a mere 20 seconds to approve strikes, often acted as mere “rubber stamp,” relying heavily on AI’s identification with minimal review.

As evidenced by Lavender, issues such as the level of machine autonomy tolerated by humans, the risk involved, and reliability of the system present real challenges to a world that is increasingly embracing AI and the advent of new technology. Such events underscore the imperative of utilizing AI with utmost responsibility to prevent catastrophic outcomes and safeguard against potential risks.

Azerbaijan Expands Ties With China And Iran, Benefiting Moscow And Hurting West – Analysis

Paul Goble

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Two developments over the past couple of weeks reflect the reordering of geopolitics in the South Caucasus since Azerbaijan expelled Armenian forces from its territory. Both events are likely to intensify that trend, with consequences not only for the countries in the region but also for the international order.

At the Astana meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on July 4, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping signed a declaration of strategic partnership that calls for their two countries to work more closely economically, militarily, and strategically (TASS, July 3).

Additionally, on July 15, after more than a year of talks and on the heels of the election of the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformer and ethnic Azerbaijani, Iran allowed Azerbaijan to reopen its embassy in Tehran, a facility that had been shuttered since a terrorist attack in January 2023 (Vestikavkaza.ru, July 15). In bolstering relations with China and Iran, Baku is shifting the power balance in the South Caucasus, weakening the West’s position and potentially offering Moscow an opening to reassert its influence.

Tibetan Exile President Ups Ante In Nomenclature War – OpEd

Subir Bhaumik

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The Tibetan exile government says it will “strongly counter” Beijing, which has been renaming Tibetan places with Chinese names.

Penpa Tsering, Sikyong or President of the Central Tibetan Administration (Tibetan Parliament in Exile) or CTA, told Indian media that the “Sinification of Tibet must stop.”

“We will create a map of Tibet that will carry names of all places in Tibet in Tibet language. Chinese official position on Tibet underplays Tibet’s own rich and distinct history as it projects Tibet as part of China since the ancient era. We have to put an end to it,” Tsering said.

“Chinese renaming of Tibetan places will not erase Tibet’s unique culture and identity, because we have been an independent entity for much of our history. China forcibly occupied Tibet by sending its army and that historical fact is acknowledged by the world,” Tsering said.

He said China calls Tibet as Xizang.

“But now we are researching every name in Tibet and we will have a map of Tibet that will show all the original Tibetan names of all the places in Tibet,” he said.

Some Grand Strategy? – Third Plenum Concludes

ANUSHKA SAXENA

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A couple hours ago, the authorised Communiqué of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was published, and in this edition, I am doing a quick breakdown of some of the narrative discussed therein, and will eventually delve into points of interest in subsequent editions.

To begin with, the Communiqué declares that the Third Plenum reviewed and approved the “Decision of the Central Committee of the CPC on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernization,” the document that was intended to be released with the conclusion of the Plenum.

Next, and last in order, was a discussion on dismissals and investigative cases. Given the slew of corruption-related cases that have been under deliberation specifically in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in the past year, a mention of the cases under review was a must. And as per the Communiqué, “The plenary session reviewed and approved the Central Military Commission's investigation report on the serious violations of discipline and law by Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and Sun Jinming, and confirmed the disciplinary actions of expulsion from the Party for Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and Sun Jinming previously decided by the Political Bureau.” The announcements surrounding the dismissal of PLA Rocket force commander Li Yuchao and Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Sun Jinming from their respective posts have been around for a while. Li Shangfu’s dismissal for corruption came about at a Politburo meeting in June. Interestingly, the crimes of Wei Fenghe, the defence minister preceding Li Shangfu, were also announced at this meeting. However, Wei finds no mention in the Plenum Communiqué

CIA Director Reports Hamas Military Commanders Pressing Yahya Sinwar to End War

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Latest Developments

Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar is reportedly facing growing pressure from his commanders to agree to a ceasefire deal with Israel, according to comments attributed to CIA director Bill Burns at a closed-door meeting on July 13. A CNN report on July 16 cited an unidentified source who described Burns’ assessment at the meeting that senior Hamas commanders were tired from more than nine months of fighting and were pressuring Sinwar to accept a ceasefire deal. Burns, who has represented the United States at multiple rounds of ceasefire talks in Egypt and Qatar, said that the pressure from the commanders means that the chance of Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire is greater now than in the recent past, although he added that the final stages of negotiations are always difficult.

Expert Analysis

“Hamas is feeling the heat. Egypt appears to have quietly but finally started to secure the Philadelphi Corridor, which is the way Hamas has re-armed and replenished its resources. In the meantime, the Israelis appear to have increasingly accurate intelligence on key Hamas assets. The war may not end tomorrow. But one gets a sense that Hamas is finally reaching its breaking point.” — Jonathan Schanzer, FDD Senior Vice President for Research