Afghanistan War Commission opens inquiry of America’s longest conflict

Abigail Hauslohner

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Against the backdrop of America’s roiling political landscape and two raging foreign wars, a coterie of former U.S. government officials and academics on Friday opened what will be an extensive examination of the United States’ 20-year foray in Afghanistan — the nation’s longest conflict.

“Today we make history,” said Shamila N. Chaudhary, co-chair of the Afghanistan War Commission. “Never before has the United States commissioned such a wide-ranging independent legislative assessment of its own decision-making in the aftermath of a conflict.”

The mission is daunting. The 16-member bipartisan panel has been tasked by Congress with determining what went wrong and what U.S. leaders could do differently the next time the United States goes to war. Their mandate encompasses policies and actions taken by four presidential administrations, the U.S. military, the State Department, U.S. allies, and many other agencies, organizations and people.

Myanmar’s civil war has seen a devastating increase in attacks on schools, researchers say

SAM HARSHBARGER

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An intensification of fighting in Myanmar’s civil war has brought a sharp increase in destructive attacks on schools, a group that monitors armed conflict in the Southeast Asian nation said in a report Saturday.

Myanmar Witness said the attacks have further strained Myanmar’s already fractured school system, taking away education for millions of children who have also been forced to flee their homes, miss vaccinations and suffer from inadequate nutrition.

The group, a project of the United Kingdom-based Center for Information Resilience, identified a total of 174 attacks on Myanmar schools and universities since the military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi three years ago. It said the count came from evidence in social media and news reports.

Other groups have suggested higher numbers of attacks. The Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack, an advocacy group based in New York, counted over 245 reports of attacks on schools and 190 reports of military use of educational facilities in 2022-23.

The 2021 military takeover was met with widespread nonviolent demonstrations for democracy, but those were crushed with lethal force. Many opponents of military rule then took up arms, and large parts of the country are now embroiled in conflict. The military government is estimated to control less than half the country.

China and the Philippines announce deal aimed at stopping clashes at fiercely disputed shoal

JIM GOMEZ

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China and the Philippines reached a deal they hope will end confrontations at the most fiercely disputed shoal in the South China Sea, the Philippine government said Sunday.

The Philippines occupies Second Thomas Shoal but China also claims it, and increasingly hostile clashes at sea have sparked fears of larger conflicts that could involve the United States.

The crucial deal was reached Sunday, after a series of meetings between Philippine and Chinese diplomats in Manila and exchanges of diplomatic notes that aimed to establish a mutually acceptable arrangement at the shoal, which Filipinos call Ayungin and the Chinese call Ren’ai Jiao, without conceding either side’s territorial claims.

Two Philippine officials, who had knowledge of the negotiations, confirmed the deal to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity and the government later issued a brief statement announcing the deal without providing details.

“Both sides continue to recognize the need to deescalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation and agree that the agreement will not prejudice each other’s positions in the South China Sea,” the Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila said.

The End of South Asia: A Region in Name Only

Happymon Jacob

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For decades, policymakers and scholars have been trained in the West and elsewhere to think of the countries of the Indian subcontinent as part of a coherent region: South Asia. Home to around a quarter of the world’s population, the region consists of eight countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Its diverse peoples speak hundreds of different languages and follow numerous different religious traditions, but they have shared histories, including the experience of British colonialism, and shared cultural connections, including a love of the sport of cricket and Bollywood films, ethnic ties, and musical and culinary practices, for instance. In the late twentieth century, South Asian leaders sought to deepen links within the region, with the greater goal of integration in line with that pursued in nearby Southeast Asia under the auspices of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or in Europe under the European Union. South Asia, too, they imagined, could become a consequential regional bloc in global geopolitics.

But that never happened. In the last four decades, South Asia has managed to build little security, economic, or policy cohesion. Mistrust and enmity, notably that between India and Pakistan, have made integration a pipe dream. Worse, at the most fundamental level, the notion of belonging to South Asia has lost any of the traction it ever had. South Asians no longer look to one another for connection and solidarity but rather gaze farther afield, to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, or the West. Not many South Asians (outside those tens of millions living in diaspora around the world) would even think to consider themselves South Asians in the first place. The term today does not denote a coherent regional identity but is merely a mundane geographical demarcation used mostly by those outside the region. The dream of a united South Asia is over, with important implications for geopolitics on the subcontinent that policymakers and analysts of the region have yet to fully grasp.

Bangladesh: Ending The Quota Mania – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

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Bengali students won their second historic battle for rights in 72 years when the Bangladesh Supreme Court on Sunday scrapped contentious quotas and installed merit as the principal criterion for recruitment to white-collar government jobs.

University students in Bangladesh, who were on a country-wide struggle since July 5 against an unfair quota system in recruitment to white collar government jobs, won the battle on Sunday when the Supreme Court scrapped most of the quotas and enthroned merit as the principal criterion.

The is the second landmark victory of Bengali students. The first was the successful four-year battle to install Bengali as one of the official languages of Pakistan. That battle ended in 1956 with a constitutional amendment making both Urdu and Bengali as the official languages of Pakistan.

The just-ended struggle was for justice in an economic situation where joblessness among the university-educated is as high as 46%.

The second struggle was no less hard as the police opened fire at several places and the students wing of the ruling Awami League mercilessly attacked fellow students, both boys and girls, with sticks. The death toll was 114. Hundreds were injured in clashes across the country.

BrahMos: Wonderful, But Not Useful! US Expert Calls India’s Supersonic Missile Ineffective For Philippines Sans C4ISR

Ritu Sharma

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India’s sale of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines has been seen as a strategic turning point, with New Delhi taking a stand in the South China Sea disputes.

Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Ashley Tellis, while conceding that BrahMos is a remarkable contribution to the Philippines’ security, said that in the absence of the C4ISR capability, the Southeast Asian country will not be able to use it “effectively.”

The US Department of Defense often uses C4ISR for “command, control, communications, computers (C4), intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).”

In simpler words, C4ISR is the “nervous system” of the military aimed at increasing situational awareness. Various systems work in tandem to collect massive amounts of data from multiple sensors and databases. This data, as an end product, is used for targeting.

C4ISR technologies are the bedrock of any mission, and the components must work in tandem to effectively enable the “muscle” side of the military—weapons, platforms, and troops. C4ISR networks collect massive amounts of data from multiple sensors, databases, and other sources worldwide. The data is fused, processed into usable information, and shared securely among authorized users.

In a Taiwan war, the US could find itself fighting China without its top allies

Michael Peck

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If the US decides to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion, it may have to do so alone.

Several of America's biggest allies are unlikely to commit troops to save Taiwan, either because they lack the military capability or don't want to risk all-out war with an increasingly formidable China, according to a new report by the RAND Corp..

For Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada, aid "would be confined to diplomatic support for Taiwan and endorsement of likely US sanctions on China," concluded RAND, an American think tank, which surveyed experts in the four nations. If this proves right, it means that any military response to a Chinese invasion would be limited to American forces.

"Our respondents believe that the US will receive logistics and materiel support from other countries, but its forces will have to go it alone in responding to an invasion by China," Rafiq Dossani, a RAND senior economist who co-authored the study, told Business Insider. However, there was more support in Japan and Australia to commit their navies to assisting an American-led effort to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan.

China’s Dangerous Nuclear Push

Amy J. Nelson and Andrew Yeo

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Since the 1990s, Beijing has spurned Washington’s invitations to participate in nuclear arms control negotiations. Instead, it has expanded and modernized its arsenal: the country’s estimated 500 nuclear warheads are on track to double by 2030. China’s advances, along with North Korea’s, has had knock-on effects in the region. Despite U.S. security assurances, a majority of South Koreans now want their country to have its own nuclear weapons, and Japan’s long-standing aversion to the bomb is also eroding. Asia is now on track to see a destabilizing arms race in the years ahead.

If it acts quickly, however, Washington can stem these worrying developments. In February, Beijing invited the world’s nuclear states to negotiate a “no first use” treaty. (The United States, which has more than ten times as many nuclear weapons as China, maintains a first-use option.) After so many rejected advances, the United States should welcome China’s overture to talk. If Beijing is prepared to negotiate in good faith, Washington should respond in kind—and press for a broader arms control agreement.

Washington must engage in tough, even coercive diplomacy, making it clear that Beijing faces a stark choice: participate meaningfully in substantive negotiations or brave a massive U.S.-backed nuclear buildup in its own backyard. And if Chinese leaders decline to do so, Washington could begin discussions with Seoul and Tokyo about nuclear-sharing arrangements, as well as move faster to update and enlarge its own arsenal, channeling investments to its nuclear weapons defense industrial base.

China’s Long March through the Global South

DAVID P. GOLDMAN

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The “Long March” analogy isn’t my idea. Chinese policymakers talk of Mao’s civil war strategy of encircling the cities from the countryside.

Why is this important? The working-age population of high-income countries will fall by a quarter this century due to low birth rates. In the case of Taiwan and South Korea, it’s more like three-quarters.

That’s why I doubt China will invade Taiwan; the Chinese don’t fight for what will fall into their laps sooner or later like ripe fruit. But the working-age population of so-called Middle-Income countries will rise by half.

The world’s scarcest resource is young people who can work in a modern economy. Empires of the past fought over territory. China’s goal is to control people.

In 1979 China took a nation of farmers and turned them into industrial workers, and multiplied GDP per capita 30 times. Now it plans to turn a nation of factory workers into a nation of engineers — think of South Korea. That’s a messy and costly transition. But China is doing it.

In 2020 I wrote of China’s plan to Sino-form the Global South. It knows a lot about getting people who make $3 a day to make $10 or $20 a day.

All eyes on Iran’s reaction to Hodeidah - analysis

SETH J. FRANTZMAN

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The Iranian-backed Houthis have vowed to continue attacks on Israel after the IDF struck the port of Hodeidah in Yemen on Saturday. Iran is a focus of attention now because it backs the Houthis and has pushed them and other groups to increase attacks on Israel over the last nine months.

The Hodeidah port “serves as an entryway for Iranian weapons for the Houthi terrorist regime. The IDF is capable of operating anywhere required and will strike any force that endangers Israelis,” said the IDF.

The Houthis seem intent on calling what they see as Israel’s bluff. Houthi spokesman Yayha Saree vowed on Sunday that the group would strike Israel back.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they will respond to this blatant aggression, and they will not hesitate to strike the vital targets of the Israeli enemy,” Saree said, according to Iranian media IRNA. “He said that the [Israeli] regime’s strikes hit a power station and fuel tanks, all of which were civilian targets. The Yemeni armed forces are preparing for a long war with the Israeli regime.”

The Triumph of the Houthis (and Iran) - OPINION

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The bombing exchange between the Houthis of Yemen and Israel over the weekend isn’t merely another military escalation in the Middle East. It represents the failure of the Biden Administration’s policy of appeasement to contain the Iran-backed Houthis as they terrorize commercial shipping in the Red Sea, Israel and the U.S. Navy.

Israel bombed the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, including oil and gas depots, a power station, and cranes used in Houthi military operations. This was retaliation after a Houthi drone evaded Israeli air defenses Friday and landed in Tel Aviv near the U.S. Consulate, which may have been the target. One Israeli civilian died and 10 were wounded. What if the drone had killed Americans?

The Houthis have attacked Israel from Yemen more than 200 times since Oct. 7, though Israel’s defenses have managed to intercept most drones and missiles. The terror group is boasting that its drones, supplied by Iran, are becoming sophisticated enough to make it past Israeli radar and interceptors.

The Biden Administration told Israel nine months ago that the U.S. would handle the Houthi threat and it should stick to playing defense. But the attack on Tel Aviv shows that the U.S. effort is a bust.

Israeli Long-Distance Strike on Houthis Leaves Yemeni Port Ablaze

Carrie Keller-Lynn, Benoit Faucon and Saleh al-Batati

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The Israeli military for the first time staged a direct airstrike against Houthi rebels in Yemen, a day after the Iran-backed militant group launched a drone attack in Tel Aviv that killed one person.

Israel said its F-15 jet fighters struck several targets in the Houthi-controlled port city of Hodeidah, which set fuel tanks ablaze and damaged the city’s power plant, a Houthi official said. Health authorities said several people had died and more than 80 were wounded. Israel’s military didn’t respond to a request for comment on casualties.

Israel’s military said it downed a surface-to-surface missile launched by Yemen on Sunday, using its advanced Arrow 3 aerial defense system. The Houthis later claimed responsibility for launching ballistic missiles toward Israel on Sunday.

Israel said it acted Saturday in retribution for hundreds of Houthi attacks against the country since October, including the one in the heart of Israel’s commercial capital on Friday. That drone strike marked the first time the Houthi militia successfully hit Tel Aviv nine months into Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas militants in Gaza that the Houthis say they are protesting. Israel’s aerial defense array has intercepted most of the Houthi attacks.

The Right Strategy For Ukraine – OpEd

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The Russian military’s offensives in Kharkiv and elsewhere are gradually losing strength, as they have begun using a large amount of outdated Cold War-era weapons and civilian equipment, indicating that Russia’s war resources are beginning to run dry. However, this does not mean that the Russian military has lost its offensive momentum. Russia remains a populous country with a more comprehensive strength than Ukraine, capable of suppressing Ukraine even with increased Western military support of the latter.

As things stand, even if the Russian military utilizes all of its national power from now on, it will not be sufficient to achieve significant breakthroughs on the front lines. They can only seize positions point by point, though at the same time, this will cause substantial losses. Under this basic judgment, Ukraine’s correct strategy should be adopting a modern protracted warfare strategy, deploying certain troops to elastic defense on the front line, thereby forming a reliable defensive depth. The objective of this is to maximize the depletion of Russian forces during their offensives, causing their attacks to stall.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s main strike force should maneuver swiftly behind this well-fortified front line, utilizing information advantages to strike and destroy the Russian rear system. They should target and eliminate high-value targets such as Russian logistics supply depots, command posts, transportation hubs, and bases with high-precision strikes.

Years of miscalculations by U.S., NATO led to dire shell shortage in Ukraine

STEPHEN GREY, JOHN SHIFFMAN and ALLISON MARTELL

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On the frontlines near this old industrial city, soldiers in the trenches say a shortage of an all-important munition – the 155 millimeter artillery shell – has turned the war in Russia’s favor.

Many of them blamed the supply crunch on the U.S. Congress for failing to quickly approve a $60 billion military aid package, which passed after months of delay in April. The U.S. and European nations have pledged that assistance is on its way. But while fresh supplies have been delivered, Ukraine is still massively outgunned.

The causes of the shell crisis began years ago. They are rooted in decisions and miscalculations made by the U.S. military and its NATO allies that occurred well before Russia’s 2022 invasion, a Reuters investigation found.

A decade of strategic, funding and production mistakes played a far greater role in the shell shortage than did the recent U.S. congressional delays of aid, Reuters found.

In the years between Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and its 2022 invasion, for example, repeated warnings from top NATO commanders and from officials who operated or supervised U.S. munitions plants went largely unheeded. They advised their governments, both publicly and privately, that the alliance’s munitions industry was ill-equipped to surge production should war demand it. Because of the failure to respond to those warnings, many artillery production lines at already-ancient factories in the United States and Europe slowed to a crawl or closed altogether.

‘A Rubik’s Cube in the Sky’: Israel Struggles to Defend Against Drones

Anat Peled and Dov Lieber
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On Friday, Israel’s vaunted aerial-defense system tracked 65 rockets fired across its northern border by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, intercepting some and letting the rest fall harmlessly into open areas.

That same day, Israel missed a single drone it believes flew more than 1,000 miles from Yemen to explode in the commercial capital Tel Aviv.

Israel has a problem with drones. They can be small and hard to detect, and they don’t move on predictable trajectories or emit the intense heat of rocket engines that make missiles easier to track and destroy. They are also cheap and plentiful, and are being deployed by the country’s adversaries in increasing numbers and sophistication.

Hezbollah has demonstrated the ability to strike Israel with drones in the near daily exchanges of fire since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack in which Israeli authorities say 1,200 people were killed and some 250 were taken hostage, prompting Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip.

The group often sends several at once—at least one for reconnaissance and another rigged with explosives—and has hit border towns and military bases, killing and injuring civilians and soldiers. It also has hit sensitive military equipment—including a radar surveillance balloon called Sky Dew in May and a multimillion-dollar antidrone system called Drone Dome in June.

Drone warfare in Ukraine prompts fresh thinking in helicopter tactics

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo

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Air defense and drone warfare observed in Ukraine are changing the nature of military helicopter tactics, moving the platforms’ center of gravity away from the tip of the spear to an emphasis on combat-support missions along the front lines, according to officials and issue experts.

The shift is animated in large part by proliferating ground-based air defenses that make manned flight over the battlefield almost impossible.

“In 2024, helicopters at the front, due to the threat and saturation of anti-aircraft means, primarily perform fire support along the line of combat engagement, using the toss bombing tactics [unaimed strikes by unguided missiles] and have also been a means of countering unmanned systems,” said Serhii Kuzan, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

He recalled the Russian emphasis on helicopters during the first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Moscow’s troops had planned a large-scale landing operation, which eventually failed, at the Antonov airport near Hostomel, only 25 kilometers from Kyiv.

What Biden’s Exit Means for American Foreign Policy

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On July 21, following weeks of intense speculation, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that he would not run in the November 2024 presidential election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place. Coming at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, the decision could have large implications for U.S. foreign policy for the remainder of Biden’s term.

To make sense of what Biden’s decision means for the presidency and U.S. world leadership in the weeks to come, Foreign Affairs’ senior editor Hugh Eakin spoke to the presidential historian Timothy Naftali, a faculty scholar at the Institute of Global Politics at Columbia University, the founding director of the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum, the author of George H. W. Bush (a volume in the Times Books “American Presidents” series), and a general editor of The Presidential Recordings: Lyndon B. Johnson.

In his momentous announcement, Biden said that it’s in the best interest of his party in the country for him to focus solely on “fulfilling [his] duties as president for the remainder of [his] term.” I wonder how easy that will be. Will the world, including not only antagonists but also partners and allies, see him as a lame duck?

I actually think that President Biden’s very difficult decision today has restored some of the luster to the American commitment to Ukraine and to stabilizing other parts of the world.

Biden’s withdrawal injects uncertainty into wars, trade disputes and other foreign policy challenges

ISABEL DEBRE

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Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the U.S. presidential race injects greater uncertainty into the world at a time when Western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, a more assertive China in Asia and the rise of the far right in Europe.

During a five-decade career in politics, Biden developed extensive personal relationships with multiple foreign leaders that none of the potential replacements on the Democratic ticket can match. After his announcement, messages of support and gratitude for his years of public service poured in from near and far.

The scope of foreign policy challenges facing the next U.S. president makes clear how consequential what happens in Washington is for the rest of the planet. Here’s a look at some of them.

ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS

Biden’s strong support for Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack has its roots in his half-century of support for the country as a senator, vice president, then president.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally of former President Donald Trump who has clashed with Biden over Israel’s bombardment and siege of Gaza in recent months, did not immediately comment on Biden’s decision to drop out.

The Pentagon Wants to Spend $141 Billion on a Doomsday Machine

MATTHEW GAULT

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If you’re one of the millions of Americans who live within range of its 450 intercontinental ballistic missile silos, the Pentagon has written you off as an acceptable casualty. The silos are scattered across North Dakota, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska in a zone of sacrifice—what lawmakers and military planners have long called the “nuclear sponge.”

Despite real concerns over cost overruns, human lives, and the general uselessness of ICBMs, the Pentagon is barreling forward with a plan to modernize those silos and their missiles. Right now the Department of Defense thinks it’ll cost $141 billion. Independent research puts the number at closer to $315 billion.

All of that is money the Pentagon plans to use to build a doomsday machine—a weapon that, were it ever used, would mean the end of human civilization. Such a weapon, most experts agree, is pointless.

ICBMs are a relic of the Cold War. The conventional thinking is that a nuclear power needs three options for deploying nuclear weapons—air-based strategic bombers, sea-based stealth submarines, and land-based missiles. That’s the nuclear triad. Should one leg of the triad fail, one of the other two will prevail.

Houthis only emboldened by Israeli attacks

DANIEL LARISON

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Israeli forces attacked “vital civilian infrastructure” at the port of Hodeidah in Yemen on Saturday in response to a Houthi drone strike in Tel Aviv, according to Mwatana, a leading independent Yemeni human rights organization.

The Israeli military claimed that it hit “military targets,” but Mwatana reports that the strikes did extensive damage to oil facilities, fuel tanks, and the port’s wharf and cranes, all of which are critical to supplying the civilian population in north Yemen with much-needed fuel and food.

The group also said that the strikes knocked out the central power station providing power to the entire city. Houthi authorities say that the strikes killed at least three people and wounded 87. Yemen researcher Nick Brumfield commented on the Israelis’ choice of targets: “The Israeli attack on Hudaydah’s oil storage was not an example of the Houthis hiding weapons in civilian infrastructure and it getting bombed. As best as I can tell, this is Israel purposefully targeting vital civilian infrastructure in and of itself.”

The Israeli government used the same tactics in Yemen that it has employed to such devastating effect in Gaza.

THE MISSION AND THE BUREAUCRACY: HOW ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS HINDER WARFIGHTING

Brent Stout

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There are about seventy-five “additional” duties required of all US Army companies. Company commanders must assign two or more junior leaders to each duty, requiring each assigned individual to attend schools, conduct online training, receive regular inspections, and create and maintain continuity binders and knowledge management systems. Each additional duty pulls squad leaders away from their squads and platoon leaders away from their platoons. Key leaders at the company level are stuck behind computers for most of their workdays and on many of their off days just trying to keep up. Unsurprisingly, companies struggle to find the time and personnel resources to shoulder this administrative and clerical burden while also accomplishing their top priority: warfighting.

Unit armorer, master driver, equal opportunity leader, and sexual harassment and assault victim advocate—these are a few of the commonly known duties required of all companies across the Army. On top of these, there is an array of others— like communications security custodian, government purchase card holder, unit movement officer, and hazardous material endorsement officer—that require extended specialized training, often held at the corps or installation levels. It is not uncommon for the process to train and certify a government purchase card holder or communications security custodian to last anywhere from six to twelve months, which can put companies and even battalions in an operational bind, forcing them to rely on adjacent units or find ways to make do until they have their own personnel trained and certified in these critical roles.

Will the Democrats Win After Biden’s Withdrawal?

RICHARD HAASS

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US President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate this fall has transformed American politics. It caps a historic July in the United States, one defined by far-reaching Supreme Court decisions and the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on the eve of the Republican Convention.

Biden’s decision, urged by many Democratic Party officials and donors and favored by many voters, was the right choice. In the wake of a debate widely viewed as a debacle for Biden, his age had made it all but impossible for him to make the case to the American people that he deserved another four years – and was making it impossible for him to make the case that Trump did not.

It is too soon to write about Biden’s legacy, if for no other reason than his presidency still has some six months left. But by stepping aside he has gone a long way toward eliminating the potential critique that by staying in the race he paved the way for a successor who shared little of his commitment to American democracy and the country’s role in the world. Indeed, had Trump defeated Biden in November, as polls were forecasting, this would have largely overshadowed Biden’s accomplishments as president.

Is The Era Of Directed Energy Weapons Finally Here? – Analysis

Prateek Tripathi

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Though the interest in Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) has been around for a long time, it is only recently that significant advancements have happened in the field. The United States (US) government has been pouring billions of dollars into DEWs over the years, and the technology is now finally in a position to pay dividends. Far from residing in the realm of science fiction, DEWs are fast becoming a reality. India has also been investing in DEWs, which have now acquired an increasing importance due to the fact that they present a viable counter-measure to Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and, potentially, even hypersonic weapons.

What are DEWs?

As per the US Department of Defence (DOD), DEWs use concentrated electromagnetic energy, rather than kinetic energy like conventional weapons, to “incapacitate, damage, disable or destroy enemy equipment, facilities, and/or personnel.” Different DEWs can be obtained depending on the part of the electromagnetic spectrum being utilised. The most prominent ones are high-energy lasers (HEL) and high-powered microwaves (HPM) weapons. Though other DEWs like particle beams do exist, they are still in early stages of development.

China comes up with attack plan for Elon Musk's Starlink-like satellites

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China's People Liberation Army has deployed its submarine with a laser weapon installed in its midsection to counter military threats to Beijing including Elon Musk's Starlink which has been covering the space above the Earth with its satellites.

According to the South China Morning Post, China can destroy SpaceX’s Starlink satellites if China’s security is at risk.

In a study by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) scientists led by Wang Dan, a professor with the Naval Submarine Academy, said that for anti-satellite missions, the biggest challenge was not hitting the satellite, but hiding the attack as missile launches are often accompanied by long trails of smoke.

“Taking the satellites launched by the Starlink programme as an example, they are numerous, densely packed, and small in size, making the satellite network extremely resilient. Even if a significant number of satellites are destroyed, there are redundancies to replace them. Therefore, using missiles to attack such satellites is highly inefficient,” Wang’s team said in a peer-reviewed paper published last month in the Chinese-language journal, Command Control & Simulation.

The Data That Powers A.I. Is Disappearing Fast

Kevin Roose

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For years, the people building powerful artificial intelligence systems have used enormous troves of text, images and videos pulled from the internet to train their models.

Now, that data is drying up.

Over the past year, many of the most important web sources used for training A.I. models have restricted the use of their data, according to a study published this week by the Data Provenance Initiative, an M.I.T.-led research group.

The study, which looked at 14,000 web domains that are included in three commonly used A.I. training data sets, discovered an “emerging crisis in consent,” as publishers and online platforms have taken steps to prevent their data from being harvested.

The researchers estimate that in the three data sets — called C4, RefinedWeb and Dolma — 5 percent of all data, and 25 percent of data from the highest-quality sources, has been restricted. Those restrictions are set up through the Robots Exclusion Protocol, a decades-old method for website owners to prevent automated bots from crawling their pages using a file called robots.txt.

The Mandala, Agency and Norms in Indonesia-India Global Affairs

Nia Deliana

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The notion of the Mandala can be traced back to a Tamil inscription that describes a settlement and commercial system of a South Indian communal compound before the Chola’s raid in 1025 CE. The records note a commercial system in Lobu Tua of Southern Aceh dated in 1088 CE (McKinnon 1994). Mercantile exchanges between the two regions continued despite political turbulence resulting from domestic or global affairs. Many scholars believe that the Mandala of the Indian Ocean was the most substantial factor that engineered this international relationship. Mandala is a Sanskrit word that means a circle of space and time that connect through a circulation of being, according to Bose (2006). Through the shared Muslim cultures across the Indian Ocean (Pradines and Topan, 2023), The Mandala’s international norms ruled not only the entanglement on networks, ports, commodities, and agencies that characterized the systemic order of sovereignty, rivalry, and alliances with the great powers but also the fluid political ecosystem of the Ocean. It guided mobility, interactions, and a sense of belonging to the native-becoming South Indians, Arabs, Chinese, Jews, and Europeans.

Fernand Braudel highlighted a similar notion of mandala in French as revealed in his book, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Phillip II (1972). He coined the “long duree” concept to explain spatial and temporal connections threaded in the cycle of economic and political circulatory processes that shaped inter-civilizational pluralism and inclusivity. Complimentary to Braudel’s, Acharya’s reflection (2019) on the origin of the global economy and international politics showcases the cycle of circulation pattern between various empires. It contributed to a “civilizational state” where “embedded norms and cultures engineered pluralism and unipolarity” that formed the global order across the Indian Ocean. Such multiplexity had to owe to the ‘open’ character of the surrounding sovereignties, as Manjeed S Pardesi (2022) concluded. He showed that the ‘open’ character contributed to shaping a ‘de-centered hegemony’ of the centric world order system, referring to the case of 15th century Malacca’s international politics with the global powers.

AI and Deepfakes Played a Big Role in India’s Elections

Samriddhi Sakunia

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In February, ahead of elections in India, the Indian National Congress, the chief opposition party, shared a parody video of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Instagram. It used AI tools to superimpose his face on that of Justh, an Indian singer whose song “Chor” (“Thief”) went viral on social media. Producers slightly changed its lyrics, cloned Modi’s voice and paired it with animated visuals of the leader with industrialist Gautam Adani. The video was a gibe on their closeness that had led to Adani’s acquiring several airports, seaports and power plants in the country after Modi’s ascent to power in 2014.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also responded with an AI-generated video. In it, senior Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi’s face had been superimposed on that of Tejashwi Yadav, an opposition leader in Bihar. It was made to seem as if he was addressing Mamata Banerjee, a leader who had broken with the Congress-led alliance just before the elections. It was a dig at the fragile relations in the opposition bloc.

This exchange marked the onset of an AI-driven war and paved the way for a new way of political campaigning in the country, where AI tools, such as voice cloning, conversational bots, personalized video and text messaging, QR codes to click selfies, hologram boxes and deepfake technology were employed by political parties to reach out to voters and take jabs at one another.

Readying for war or being prepared for crises? China’s stockpiling of resources raises eyebrows and questions

Bong Xin Ying

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SINGAPORE: What do grain, oil, copper, cobalt and iron ore have in common?

They’re but some of the key resources and minerals China has recently been amassing, according to media reports, in an alleged pattern of behaviour that has blared red for some observers and rival superpower the United States.

Chief of which is Washington’s concern that Beijing’s hoarding could be a precursor to war - specifically over Taiwan which it claims as its territory - as singled out during a hearing last month by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

While Beijing understandably keeps its cards close to its chest, analysts CNA spoke to believe preparation for war is but one piece of the overall stockpiling puzzle - and even then, it’s likely low on the priority list.

Instead, they see the latest fortification of national reserves as primarily aimed at ensuring the world’s second-largest economy is primed for potential shocks arising from a tumultuous geopolitical environment, climate change, and natural disasters.

“The focus is less on imminent war and more on long-term resilience and strategic positioning,” said Mr Andy Mok, a senior research fellow at Beijing-based think tank, Center for China and Globalization.

The Crumbling Edifice of Conventional Deterrence

Lawrence J. Korb & Stephen Cimbala

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Current and aspiring nuclear great powers (the United States, Russia, and China), together with other comparatively small nuclear weapons states (either declared or widely acknowledged as such), are investing in expensive and expansive modernization of their nuclear arsenals. This pattern of growing commitment to larger and costlier nuclear weapons deployments is predicated on the assumption that nuclear weapons are a necessary and sufficient deterrent to a major war, including nuclear war. But that assumption is now under widespread challenge.

What we are seeing is a growing willingness of state and non-state actors to engage in large-scale conventional and unconventional warfare, even against the interests of nuclear powers. It turns out that, without the capability to deter or win conventional wars or unconventional attacks against vital interests, a state’s nuclear arsenal is, effectively, a one-dimensional success story sitting atop a glue factory of military insufficiency.

Dissenters of the preceding view might argue that nuclear weapons serve to deter a nuclear attack against the state and its vital interests and nuclear blackmail by one state against another or its allies. This concept is of little consolation to practical heads of state and military planners. A deliberate nuclear strike “out of the blue” by one nuclear power against another, not preceded by a conventional war, is one of the least likely paths to nuclear war. More likely is the expansion of a conventional war into a decision by one side to engage in nuclear first use.

Russia, China Sell Cyber Weapons to Hamas, Cybersecurity Expert Claims

Hugh Cameron

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Hamas has reportedly acquired sophisticated criminal malware to target Israeli infrastructure and entities, opening another front in the ongoing conflict.

However, one expert told Newsweek that attacks originating from the Gaza Strip were becoming increasingly unlikely due to the damage caused to the region by Israeli bombardment.

According to National Security News, Hamas has begun "renting complex computer viruses" and using these to attack the Israeli Defense Forces and other government agencies.

Using cheap malware known as "info-stealers," the group is reportedly uploading viruses to target computers via emails, games or PDF documents, and using these to steal confidential data.

Alberto Casares, chief technology officer at California-based cyber security company Constella Intelligence, told National Security News that the technology could have originated from Russia, China, Iran or North Korea.

China vs. World: Cybersecurity Reporting Duel

Tom Uren

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Western cybersecurity agencies are co-authoring reports with an increasing number of overseas agencies into Chinese cyber activity. And China doesn’t seem to like it.

The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) last week issued an advisory co-authored with German, Korean, and Japanese intelligence; cybersecurity and law enforcement agencies; as well as the standard Five Eyes agencies that regularly contribute to advisories. The advisory documented two successful compromises of Australian organizations and resulting investigations by the Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC). The agencies attributed the compromises to APT40, a People’s Republic of China (PRC)-sponsored group that operates on behalf of the Ministry of State Security (MSS). The report documents what it calls a “notable” shift in tradecraft, away from using hacked websites for command and control to using compromised small office/home office devices to relay communications.

There is only a tiny amount of information in the report that could be ascribed to organizations other than ASD. The corralling of international agencies as authors is all about presenting a united front against Chinese cyber operations.

China, however, is pushing back by issuing its own reports on purported U.S. activity or attempting to cast doubt on reports into its own behavior.

Is China’s social contract about to break down?

JOHN RAPLEY

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Steady as she goes. That was the message from the Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, which concluded yesterday. Watched closely as an indicator of the ruling elite’s policy intentions, the communique that emerged from the meeting suggested no major change to the country’s economic direction.

But Xi Jinping saying everything is going to plan is starting to sound a bit like Joe Biden saying he’s going to beat Donald Trump in November’s election. Because in an unfortunate piece of timing, as the Plenum began the Chinese statistical agency reported that economic growth had recently fallen below the talismanic 5% figure.

For quite some time, economists have been warning that the current Chinese growth strategy is running out of road. Building manufacturing industries to export to the world has delivered Beijing the phenomenal rise in income it has experienced in the last 30 years. However, there’s only so much capacity on the planet to absorb Chinese products.

The China-Only Republicans

Alexander Motyl

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The Republican concern with China’s threat to America is understandable, arguably even laudable, as many of China’s economic, security, and human rights policies do, in fact, challenge America.

When that laudable concern turns into a single-minded obsession, however, then it does more than a disservice to America. It becomes exactly that which it was supposed to deter: a threat to America’s security.

Both former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, along with the Heritage Foundation and scores of conservative analysts, suffer from this obsession.

If China were the only big country that matters in the world, the China-only camp would be right. But because China isn’t the only country that matters to U.S. interests, the China-only camp is wrong. This is elementary.

The China-only camp could counter that while it’s definitely true that India, Brazil, Mexico, Europe, and Nigeria also matter, China outdoes them in terms of strategic importance that a China-only foreign policy is warranted.

U.S. Launches Effort to Stop Russia From Arming Houthis With Antiship Missiles

Michael R. Gordon & Lara Seligman

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U.S. intelligence agencies are warning that Russia might arm Houthi militants in Yemen with advanced antiship missiles in retaliation for the Biden administration’s support for Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with U.S. weapons.

The new intelligence comes as the top U.S. Middle East commander recently advised in a classified letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that military operations in the region are “failing” to deter Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and that a broader approach is needed, according to U.S. officials.

The White House has launched a confidential push to try to stop Moscow from delivering the missiles to the Iranian-backed Houthis, who have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea for eight months in a show of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

The Houthi threat was highlighted early Friday local time when an armed drone that the Israeli military said was launched from Yemen struck Tel Aviv, the militant group’s first successful targeting of the city since the beginning of the Gaza war. One person was killed and several people were injured by the blast, which hit an apartment near a U.S. diplomatic building, authorities said.

A Deadly Alliance: Al-Shabaab and the Houthis

Emily Milliken

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On June 11, United States intelligence made a startling claim: Yemen’s Houthi rebels are looking to cooperate with Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al-Shabaab and are discussing a deal to provide the Somali fighters with weapons.

The potential agreement would reportedly provide advanced weapons systems to al-Shabaab in return for much-needed revenue for the Houthis. Still, the deal would also mean a new strategic relationship that could benefit the rebels. While it is unclear exactly what kind of weapons would be exchanged, al-Shabaab already has access to small arms and surveillance drones through its prolific smuggling network and the black market in Somalia. Thus, the Houthis are most likely offering attack drones or surface-to-air missiles because more advanced systems like anti-ship ballistic missiles and cruise missiles would require significant training and logistical assistance that would be difficult for al-Shabaab to obtain, given the risks associated with Houthi and al-Shabaab militants traveling.

Although United States officials have not discovered any direct evidence of weapon exchanges occurring at this time, even the possibility of these two groups putting their sectarian differences aside to cooperate should be a concern. Al-Shabaab is trying to establish jihadist rule over territory in Somalia. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia rebel group backed by the regime in Tehran, are fighting the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and, since November, have been focused on maritime attacks targeting vessels they see as allied with Israel. Nevertheless, the Houthis are following in the footsteps of their backers in Iran, who have, on occasion, worked with Al Qaeda and its affiliates pragmatically, even harboring some of its most senior leadership.