16 March 2020

Is The U.S. Already In A Recession?

Challenger Gray and Christmas
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The World Health Organization has declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. How is the virus impacting business and the workplace?

Companies Race to Get Workforces Remote-Ready. Employers around the nation are instituting tests to determine whether their teams can work remotely during the pandemic, without sacrificing productivity.

"The ability to work remotely has long been a desirable benefit to attract workers. Many employers had specific departments or individuals remote-work capable and, in many cases, it was used maybe once or twice a week," said Andrew Challenger, Senior VP of global outplacement and executive and business coaching firm, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

"Now, as employers try to protect their employees, it's crucial that companies align their IT teams with available resources to institute company-wide remote work," added Challenger.


Not every company, role, or worker is remote-work capable. According to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 29% of workers have the ability to work from home on an average day. This number fell to 20.6% for wage and salaried workers.

Drilling down to individual roles, 33.6% of management, business, and financial operations workers worked from home on an average day in 2018. Only 10% of workers in service roles worked remotely, 8.3% of construction workers, and 7% of production workers.

Meanwhile, the average number of hours worked from home was 2.73, compared to 7.68 total hours worked on an average day.

"The transition to full-day, all-team remote work will be intense for most companies. No doubt IT teams will find holes that need to be filled before implementing company-wide remote work," said Challenger.

"Meanwhile, for many industries, remote work will not be possible. For instance, in hospitals, even if patients are able to video conference with their health teams, most of these professionals will still need to come into the hospital in order to use the HIPAA-regulated portals. This is also true for banking and other industries that are regulated by strict privacy laws," added Challenger.

NCAA May Prohibit Crowds at This Year's Tournament. March Madness has long been a productivity-sapping, but morale-boosting event for the workplace. However, due to COVID-19 concerns, the NCAA has created a task force to help avoid the spread of the virus at its massive event.

"Scores of other events have already been cancelled nationwide. In Seattle, any event with more than 250 attendees has been cancelled. In Washington, DC, government officials have recommended that non-essential events with 1,000 attendees or more be cancelled. The St. Patrick's Day Parade in Chicago has also been cancelled this year, an event that attracts over 1 million people each year," said Challenger.

Meanwhile, the Ivy League Basketball Conference has been cancelled, and two Division I teams have cancelled road trips to Seattle, where confirmed cases of Coronavirus in nearby Kirkland have risen to 269, with ten nursing homes testing positive for the virus.

"March Madness cost businesses $13.3 billion in lost productivity last year. The tournament will most definitely be a welcome distraction this year. With easy television access to the potential 40 million new remote workers, it may cost businesses even more," said Challenger.

*Challenger's March Madness Productivity estimate is scheduled for release Monday, March 16th.

Some Industries Will See Increased Demand While Others Will Surely See Layoffs. It is possible the US is already in a recession. During the Great Recession in 2008-2009, 2,512,023 job cuts were announced, according to Challenger tracking.

While hotels, airlines, cruise ships, restaurants, and companies experiencing supply or demand shock will take a hit during the spread of the virus, companies like health care providers, deep cleaning services, cleaning products manufacturers, and non-perishable food item producers are seeing increased demand.

"We will see more layoffs due to the virus. Other industries may thrive during this period, however. As air travel becomes more restrictive, we may see the 'summer of the road trip,' especially as the oil crash, while introducing a host of economic issues, provides consumers with cheaper gas," said Challenger.

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