James Holmes
Long-range weapons will not totally reshape war as we know it—but they could blur the difference between offensive and defensive operations.
The character of warfare feels increasingly elastic. Countervailing factors are stretching and compressing distance at the same time. For one, military technology is galloping along. Sensor, computer, and weapons technology is drastically boosting the reach, precision, speed, and evasiveness of guided missiles. Uncrewed and often autonomous vehicles prowl the skies, the sea surface, and the depths. Novel implements like artificial intelligence promise to further alter the face of warfare. Meanwhile, space forces maintain sleepless overwatch over the battlespace, helping armed forces detect, track, and target their foes at extreme ranges.
In other words, technology is stretching precision-weapons range to its utmost. In fact, the US Air Force and Space Force prophesy that the day is not far distant when armed forces and societies will enjoy no safe refuge from attack—anywhere on the planet.
At the same time, the availability of precision technology is democratizing long-range strike warfare. Not that many years ago, the US military enjoyed a near-monopoly on long-range strikes. US fighting forces could roam Eurasian environs with impunity, intervening in the rimlands wherever policymakers in Washington decreed. American forces could wage “standoff” warfare—firing their weapons from beyond their opponent’s reach, rather than venturing into harm’s way. Standoff warfare safeguards platforms such as warships and warplanes—not to mention their human crews—while still letting them visit destruction on the foe. Range curbs risk.
Cheap, Small, Long-Range: The Missile’s Impossible Triangle
In recent years, however, the proliferation of precision-strike technology has largely nullified the US standoff advantage. Proliferation has empowered a widening circle of combatants—the standout being China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA)—to engage antagonists such as US joint forces from beyond the reach of their weaponry. Having belatedly awoken to this danger, the Pentagon and defense-industrial complex are working feverishly to boost the range of America’s precision arms, along with firing platforms that carry them. If successful they will restore some semblance of martial parity in the Indo-Pacific and other embattled theaters.
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