RAND | Scott Savitz
U.S. airstrikes have recently targeted Iran's naval mine capabilities, reportedly destroying 90 percent of its stockpile, yet the perceived threat of even a few remaining mines in the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed shipping. Scott Savitz, a RAND senior engineer and mine warfare expert, assesses that Iran has historically focused on mines since the 1980s, possessing thousands of both moored and harder-to-detect influence mines. Clearing the Strait could be quick, taking days, if Iran ceases fire, but could extend to months if mine-hunting ships face attacks, as these assets are slow, predictable, and lack robust self-defense. Savitz emphasizes that the perception of a threat is sufficient to disrupt traffic, citing the Korean War where North Korea's mines stymied a U.S. amphibious attack. The current situation serves as a reminder of mines' disruptive impact, offering lessons for Taiwan's defense against a potential Chinese amphibious invasion by delaying and channelizing forces.
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