Center for Strategic and International Studies | Philip Luck, Christopher M. Meissner
Increased bilateral trade significantly reduces the probability of militarized conflict and dampens perceptions of enmity between countries, according to new research. Estimates indicate that a doubling of bilateral trade, driven by reduced shipping costs from advancements like aviation, decreases the likelihood of conflict by approximately 30 percent and lowers conflict intensity. This effect was most pronounced in East and Southeast Asia, where rapid integration into global manufacturing networks coincided with regional stabilization, with China, South Korea, Thailand, Myanmar, and the Philippines experiencing the largest reductions in conflict risk. While acknowledging that trade can create coercive leverage, as seen with Europe's reliance on Russian gas before February 2022 or China's tightening of rare earth export licenses since 2023, the authors argue that broad "de-risking" or "decoupling" efforts to limit economic integration will, on average, increase conflict likelihood. This quantifiable security cost, often overlooked in policy debates, must be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of fragmentation policies to design a more stable future international order.
No comments:
Post a Comment