Macchil Verdict: Reading Between the Lines

Vivek Chadha

November 25, 2014

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On November 13, 2014, the verdict on the Macchil fake encounter case was announced. Five of the accused, including the commanding officer of the battalion involved in the killing were sentenced to life imprisonment. The sentence is being seen as a landmark judgement by the General Court Martial (GCM), after the army took over the case for trial by a military court.

The verdict comes within days of the Northern Army Commander, Lt Gen D.S. Hooda, acknowledging a mistake, when two young Kashmiri boys were shot while they tried to rush past a vehicle check post, despite being challenged, in a commendable display of high moral standing. While the two incidents might be seen as distinct and without any linkage, yet a closer look indicates a pattern which needs to be discerned and analysed.

The exemplary punishment by the GCM, is a clear acknowledgement of the wrongdoing by a group of individuals, who took law into their hands and shed blood for personal benefit. The reprehensible crime is clearly an act of commission, which indicates the wilful desire of the officers and men to commit the crime. On the other hand, the action at the check post, according to available media reports, is an act of omission, as a result of the failure to follow laid down rules of engagement. However, there is a common thread, which binds these two incidents together. And that is the decision of the army to acknowledge the mistakes and simultaneously attempt to punish the guilty through a fair and expeditious judicial process.

This raises three issues which need to be placed in perspective in the backdrop of this differentiation. First, the role of honours and awards in such crimes, second, the impact of punishment on the morale of troops who undertake a challenging responsibility and last, its impact on the population of the disturbed area at large.

Honours and awards have always been a source of motivation, pride and contributor to morale. A small piece of ribbon achieves more than the combined wealth that a soldier earns in his service life. This works well against an external adversary, with a clear distinction between friend and foe. However, these lines tend to get blurred in operations fought on one’s own soil and amongst one’s own people. The dichotomy of the situation is further accentuated in the absence of clear victory and defeat. Despite this contradiction, there was a need to motivate men, under conditions which were often far worse than a short war over 14 or 21 days. This becomes all the more difficult, given the harsh and unfair judgement of a section of population, which remains sympathetic to the perpetuators of violence. The painted walls of Chennai railway station are a case in point, which read IPKF as “Innocent People Killing Force” and the posters in Kashmir which said, “Indian Dogs Go Home.” This led to adoption of innovative methods like unit citations, besides other individual gallantry awards to motivate soldiers, who saw themselves fight a thankless conflict. However, the system of honours and awards carried within its ambit the seeds of potential abuse, since it was linked with the killing of terrorists. The Macchil case is a dark example of this craving for individual and collective glory.

Russian war games reveal tactics while stiffening NATO resolve

By Leon Mangasarian and Ott Ummelas

November 21, 2014

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A British Typhoon (bottom) escorting a Russian Su-27 fighter when the jets were scrambled to intercept several Russian planes in June as part of NATO's ongoing mission to police Baltic airspace. The Russian aircraft all appeared to be taking part in routine training. 

Touring through the Baltics for the first time as NATO’s civilian chief, Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that Russian military activity in the region was reminiscent of the Cold War, noting that the number of intercepts of Russian planes this year had dramatically increased. 

Russia’s reported dispatch of combat troops, artillery and air defense systems into eastern Ukraine could be aimed at consolidating gains by separatists in the east for an eventual land bridge into Crimea. 

During the past several days, a U.S. observation plane has been flying over Russian skies, taking photos of military installations and equipment — all with permission of the Russians. 

BERLIN — Russian jets probing NATO airspace and supersized war drills are spilling Kremlin military secrets and scaring European nations into stiffening their armed forces.

The alliance said by late October it intercepted more than 100 Russian planes this year, more than three times the number in 2013. A report by the European Leadership Network, a London security research group, termed the incidents "a highly disturbing picture of violations of national airspace, emergency scrambles" and "narrowly avoided mid-air collisions."

Yet there are benefits for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

"Clearly, every time we come into contact with Russian forces and every time we see their tactics and how they deploy, we do learn about them," U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, the 28-member NATO's top military commander, said in Tallinn on Nov. 19. "They are just happening more often and occasionally, the size of the activities is larger."

A worsening standoff is pitting Europe and the United States against Russia over Ukraine in the biggest crisis since the Cold War's end 25 years ago. Even German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier — a persistent proponent of dialog — said on Nov. 18 after shuttle diplomacy in Kiev and Moscow, that he sees little reason for optimism.

"The rapid mobilization of 20,000 to 40,000 Russian troops at the Ukrainian border scared the hell out of NATO," Karl- Heinz Kamp, academic director at the German government's Federal Academy for Security Policy in Berlin, said by phone.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the U.S. wants "not to humiliate, but to subjugate" Russia, in remarks at a Nov. 18 meeting of his People's Front party supporters in Moscow.

Vladimir Putin looks to Pakistan as India buys US arms

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Vladimir Putin looks to Pakistan as India buys US arms The move comes as Putin seeks to expand relations with Asia in the face of growing isolation from the US and its allies 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to build military ties with Pakistan as India buys more weapons from the US, changing an approach toward the nuclear-powered neighbours that has endured since the Cold War.

Sergei Shoigu, making the first visit by a Russian defence minister to Pakistan since the Soviet Union’s collapse, last week signed a “milestone” military cooperation agreement. The world community “wants to do business with Pakistan now,” Shoigu said, according to a Pakistan government statement. 

The move comes as Putin seeks to expand relations with Asia in the face of growing isolation from the US and its allies over his support for separatist rebels in Ukraine. The US overtook Russia as India’s biggest weapons supplier in recent years, prompting leaders in Moscow to reassess their strategy toward South Asia. “We’re seeing a new Russia,” C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies. “With India now widening its search for defence supplies to the US and Israel, Russia too wants to expand the market for its equipment. Both Russia and India are reviewing their policies.” Putin plans to visit India next month to meet with Modi as Russia seeks to counter sanctions from the US and others. Russia this month announced plans to build a second gas pipeline to China, an ally of Pakistan, in a move that would cement Putin’s policy of tilting energy exports toward Asia.

“China and Russia are also allying themselves, so it’s also one factor why Russia is looking toward Pakistan more cooperatively,” retired lieutenant general Talat Masood, a former chairman of Pakistan Ordnance Factories, said by phone from Islamabad. “It’s important to be an ally of an ally.” Ruble tumbles Russia’s gross domestic product will contract by 1.7% next year after stalling in 2014, with inflation rising to 8.4% from 7.6%, IHS Inc. forecasts. The ruble has fallen about 28% against the US dollar this year, the worst performance among 24 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Russia and the Soviet Union have been India’s biggest weapons suppliers, accounting for about 70% of its arms imports since 1950, according to data compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Pakistan, by contrast, has received only 2% of its weapons from Russia and the Soviet Union in that time, with the majority provided by the US and China, the data show.

Russia and Pakistan plan to increase port calls of warships, cooperate in fighting terrorism and help stabilize Afghanistan, Russian state news service Tass reported. Shoigu also met Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who said steps were needed to boost the $542 million of bilateral trade between the two nations, according to the state-run Pakistan Broadcasting Corp. ‘Critical juncture’ “Shoigu’s visit has come at a very critical juncture when US-led Nato forces are drawing down from Afghanistan by the end of 2014,” Pakistan’s government said in a statement. “Apart from promoting bilateral defence relations, the visit will enable both countries to join hands in bringing peace and stability in the region.” It’s important for countries to balance ties between India and Pakistan, which have fought three wars since they were split after British rule ended in 1947. 

SUMMIT OF FAILURE: HOW THE EU LOST RUSSIA OVER UKRAINE

by Fortuna's Corner 

November 25, 2014 

War in Ukraine a Result of Misunderstandings between Europe and Russia

One year ago, negotations over a Ukraine association agreement with the European Union collapsed. The result has been a standoff with Russia and war in the Donbass. It was an historical failure, and one that German Chancellor Angela Merkel contributed to.

Only six meters separated German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych as they sat across from each other in the festively adorned knight’s hall of the former Palace of the Grand Dukes of Lithuania. In truth, though, they were worlds apart.

Yanukovych had just spoken. In meandering sentences, he tried to explain why the European Union’s Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius was more useful than it might have appeared at that moment, why it made sense to continue negotiating and how he would remain engaged in efforts towards a common future, just as he had previously been. “We need several billion euros in aid very quickly,” Yanukovych said.

Then the chancellor wanted to have her say. Merkel peered into the circle of the 28 leaders of EU member states who had gathered in Vilnius that evening. What followed was a sentence dripping with disapproval and cool sarcasm aimed directly at the Ukrainian president. “I feel like I’m at a wedding where the groom has suddenly issued new, last minute stipulations.”

The EU and Ukraine had spent years negotiating an association agreement. They had signed letters of intent, obtained agreement from cabinets and parliaments, completed countless diplomatic visits and exchanged objections. But in the end, on the evening of Nov. 28, 2013 in the old palace in Vilnius, it became clear that it had all been a wasted effort. It was an historical earthquake.

Everyone came to realize that efforts to deepen Ukraine’s ties with the EU had failed. But no one at the time was fully aware of the consequences the failure would have: that it would lead to one of the world’s biggest crises since the end of the Cold War; that it would result in the redrawing of European borders; and that it would bring the Continent to the brink of war. It was the moment Europe lost Russia.

Avro-replacement programme hits air pocket

Amit Cowshish

November 25, 2014

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The Avro-replacement programme of the Indian Air Force (IAF) hit an air pocket last Saturday (22nd November 2014) when the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) deferred the decision on whether to go ahead with the single response to the Request for Proposal (RFP), issued more than two years back, for 56 transport aircraft to replace the aged Avro fleet. The fate of the programme now hinges on a number of questions.

The objective of the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) is ‘to ensure expeditious procurement of the approved requirements of the Armed Forces in terms of capabilities sought and time frame prescribed by optimally utilising the allocated budgetary resources’.1. Replacement of the Avro aircraft is an approved requirement of the IAF. Scrapping the on-going process could delay acquisition of the transport aircraft by at least a year or two as it would inevitably involve revisiting the qualitative requirements (QRs) before restarting the tendering process. This could be a time-consuming.

The first question to be asked is whether the IAF can do without the replacement of the Avro fleet. The answer would obviously be in the negative. In that case, the second question would be: are there reasons to revisit the qualitative requirements (QRs) – essentially, the specifications of the aircraft – and can the IAF afford to wait for another couple of years while the QRs are reviewed?

Single-vendor situations always create the doubt that the QRs were unachievable, too restrictive or tailor-made to suit a particular vendor. Any one of these reasons is good enough to review the QRs. Not doing so would undoubtedly be against the stated policy of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) that while ensuring expeditious procurement, ‘it will demonstrate the highest degree of probity and public accountability, transparency of operations, free competition and impartiality’.2.

It may be recalled that this is a ‘Buy and Make’ project, in which the RFP was issued to several foreign companies after many of them evinced interest in the project during pre-tender consultations with the IAF. The QRs form an essential part of the RFP. The last date for submission of bids was extended two or three times. The vendors, therefore, had a long enough time to study the QRs and to point out – had that been the case – that the specifications were unachievable, restrictive or tailor-made. Apparently, no one did that. Any decision that the QRs warrant a review must take these facts into account.

Third, in an unprecedented bold step taken by MoD, the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) – a leading Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSU) – was kept out of this acquisition programme with a view to creating additional capability in the private sector in India for aircraft manufacturing. 

The need for beefing up the private sector for manufacturing aircraft has only become more acute over the years. The demand for aircraft in India is set to increase exponentially. With some modification, the transport aircraft required by the IAF could be used in the civil sector also. There are good prospects of the aircraft built in India being exported.

Michèle Flournoy tops short list to replace Chuck Hagel By AUSTIN WRIGHT, JEREMY HERB and JEN JUDSON 11/24/14 2:48 PM EST

Among a long list of would-be successors to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, two names have bubbled to the top: Michèle Flournoy and Ash Carter, both former senior Pentagon officials.

Flournoy has long been considered a top contender for the job in the next administration if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2016 — especially if it’s Hillary Clinton.

Flournoy is considered hawkish on defense issues, which would play well with a Republican-led Senate confirmation process, and she’s experienced. She was undersecretary of defense for policy from February 2009 to 2012, and she led President Barack Obama’s 2008 Defense Department transition team.

Harvard educated, she’s co-founder and CEO of the Center for a New American Security, a nonpartisan think tank funded largely through donations from defense contractors. CNAS declined a request for comment on Flournoy’s potential candidacy.

As defense secretary, Flournoy would be expected to follow her predecessors in pushing for more funding for the Pentagon as it grapples with spending cuts and a possible return of sequestration in fiscal 2016, having served on a panel and written op-eds urging more money be spent on defense.

NEWLY REVEALED CYBER ESPIONAGE ATTACK ‘MORE COMPLEX’ THAN STUXNET, FLAME; OTHER VARIANTS AND FEATURES YET TO BE DISCOVERED -ARE LIKELY; ‘A MIND-BLOWING’ CYBER ESPIONAGE VIRUS

by Fortuna's Corner 

November 25, 2014 

http://www.fortunascorner.wordpress.com

Newly Revealed Cyber Espionage Attack ‘More Complex’ Than Stuxnet, Flame; Other Variants And Features Yet To Be Discovered -Are Likely; ‘A Mind-Blowing’ Cyber Espionage Virus

Kelly Jackson-Higgins writing on the November 24, 2014 website DarkReading.com, begins by noting that “first, there was Stuxnet and Flame; and now, there’s an even more sophisticated, stealthy, and powerful cyber espionage attack called Regin, that dates back as far as 2003 — and has been found infecting machines in more than a dozen countries.”

The cyber security firms, Symantec and Kaspersky Lab has each published their separate findings on Regin, a modular malware platform that has targeted Windows machines in in telecommunications operators, governments, financial institutions, researchers, governments, small businesses, and individuals associated with cryptography research,” Ms. Jackson-Higgins writes. “The attackers most likely behind Regin,’ she argues, “are a nation-state, given the investment and resources required to design it; and, the persistent, long-term surveillance operations it appears to support. Researchers say that they have probably on scratched the surface of Regin, and there are likely other variants and features — [yet] to be discovered.”

“Regin’s targets — discovered thus far, have been found located in the Russian Federation — 28 percent of the victims — and, Saudi Arabia. 24 percent of the victims,” according to Symantec. Users in Mexico, Ireland, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Belgium, Austria, Pakistan, Algeria, Brazil, Fiji, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kiribati, and Syria were also found infected with the Regin malware,” Symantec and Kapersky’s research shows.

Conspicuously missing as victims of Regin,” Ms. Jackson-Higgins observes, “are residents of the U.S., as well as many in Western Europe countries, including the U.K.; but, neither Symantec, nor Kaspersky would confirm who might be behind Regin.” The cyber security firm, F-Secure said yesterday that this newly discovered, and highly sophisticated cyber espionage virus — “did not originate from Russia, nor China.” One publication attributed the new virus to the U.K. — specifically in the case of the Belgian ISP and telecommunications firm, Belgacom, as part of the U.K.’s Government Communication’s Headquarters’ surveillance program, which came to light in previously leaked Snowden documents,” Ms. Jackson-Higgins noted.

“There is information and a certain level of indication to show Regin was possibly used by GCHQ in some attacks…However, these are just partially confirmed. And, still, it is an interesting question if GCHQ, or the U.K. developed these tools alone; or, these attacks were a part of a collaboration between countries [such as] the U.S., U.K., and others, for what we saw in many leaked Snowden documents,” said Boldizsar Bencsath of the Laboratory of Cryptography and Systems Security at the Budapest Institute of Technology and Economics.

“One of Regin’s more powerful modules,” Ms. Jackson-Higgins writes, “”allows the malware to monitor GSM base station controllers. Kaspersky Lab found that in April 2008, the attackers behind Regin captured administrative login credentials that would let them ‘manipulate’ a GSM network in a Middle Eastern country, the name of which researchers would not disclose. With access to the base controllers, the attackers could redirect calls, or shut down the mobile network,” the researchers said.

Sony Pictures Targeted by Apparent Hack Attack to Corporate Systems

Todd Spangler

NOVEMBER 24, 2014

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Sony Pictures Entertainment has told employees companywide to not connect to corporate networks or access email, after the studio was hit Monday by what appeared to be a malicious hacker attack threatening to disclose “secrets,” Variety has confirmed.

The apparent hack was reported earlier by Deadline.com. “We are investigating an I.T. matter,” SPE spokeswoman Jean Guerin said in an emailed statement. The hack apparently is not affecting other divisions of Sony Corp., sources said.

According to a source at Sony Pictures, the company is telling employees that the situation may take anywhere from one day to three weeks to resolve. The source said a photo appeared on company computers Monday morning with an image of a skeleton and a message saying “Hacked by #GOP.” The message then says, “Warning: We’ve already warned you, and this is just the beginning… We have obtained all your internal data including secrets and top secrets.”

Sony’s information-technology departments have instructed employees to turn off their computers as well as disable Wi-Fi on all mobile devices.

The “Hacked by #GOP” message warned that the data supposedly obtained from Sony’s systems would be divulged Nov. 24, at 11 p.m. GMT, which is 3 p.m. Pacific/6 p.m. Eastern on Monday. It isn’t clear at this point which individual or groups are responsible for the attack, or specifically what the hackers’ aims are.

The SPE attack is being linked to a group called “Guardians of Peace,” Bloomberg reported, citing an anonymous source.

In August, hackers claimed they took down Sony’s PlayStation Network via a denial-of-service attack, which overwhelms systems with bogus network requests. According to the company, no personal data of PlayStation Network’s 53 million users was compromised in the Aug. 24 incident, and access was restored the following day. In 2011, a more serious security breach exposed names and passwords of millions of PlayStation Network customers.

Former NSA Hacker Gives Tips for Avoiding (If Possible) US Government Eavesdropping

Tom Fox-Brewster

November 24, 2014

Want to avoid government malware? Ask a former NSA hacker

Former NSA hacker Jim Penrose has joined UK firm Darktrace. Photograph: Harley Hall Photography

Many of the brightest minds from the National Security Agency and GCHQ staff tire themselves out from long years of service, moving out into the comfort of the private sector.

Unsurprisingly, the security industry welcomes them with open arms. After all, who better to hand out advice than alumni of two of the most sophisticated intelligence agencies on the planet?

A young British company called Darktrace, whose technology was spawned in the classrooms and bedrooms of Cambridge University, can now boast a covey of former spies among their executive ranks. Jim Penrose, who spent 17 years at the NSA and was involved in the much-feared Tailored Access Operations group (TAO), is one of Darktrace’s latest hires.

Though he declined to confirm or deny any of the claims made about TAO’s operations, including Edward Snowden leaks that showed it had hacked into between 85,000 and 100,000 machines around the world, Penrose spoke with the Guardian about how people might want to defend themselves from government-sponsored cyber attacks.

Here’s one of his top tips: treat governments and criminals just the same, and don’t expect them to waste their most treasured hacker tools on you unless you’re a genuinely tasty target.

Russia, China, Iran Waging Political Warfare, Report Says

BY: Bill Gertz

November 25, 2014 

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U.S. currently lacks strategy to counter unconventional, information warfare threats from states and terrorists

Cadet members of China's People's Liberation Army / AP

Russia, China, Iran, and Islamists are waging unconventional warfare around the world, and the United States currently lacks a clear strategy to counter the threat, according to a recent report by the Army Special Operations Command.

“This challenge is hybrid warfare combining conventional, irregular, and asymmetric means, to include the persistent manipulation of political and ideological conflict,” states the Army white paper, “Countering Unconventional Warfare.”

“Foreshadowed by Iranian actions throughout the Middle East, and by Chinese ‘unrestricted warfare’ strategists in the 1990s, hybrid warfare has now reached its most brazen form in Russia’s support for separatist insurgents in Ukraine.”

The 48-page white paper, published Sept. 26 by the Fort Bragg, North Carolina command, urges building new, non-kinetic warfare tools into a comprehensive U.S. and allied strategy.

The tools should include covert and clandestine special operations commando activities combined with political, intelligence, diplomatic, and financial warfare methods to counter the activities of states like Russia, China and Iran, and insurgent activities by terrorist groups such as the Islamic State.

Countering unconventional warfare also should be made “central to U.S./NATO security policy and practice over the next several decades,” the report states.

The Army study said the U.S. government “lacks a cohesive [information warfare] strategy to counter adversary [unconventional warfare] campaigns conducted by state and non-state actors, and this has hindered the U.S./NATO response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.”

“The U.S. government must develop a comprehensive framework to plan and execute regional and global IW strategies and operations that counter adversary UW campaigns as part of a whole-of-government approach,” the report said.

Russian unconventional threat

U.S. Plays Cyberspy vs. Cyberspy

By Katie Benner

3 NOV 24, 2014 

With revelations that critical infrastructure in the U.S. has been under sustained attack, likely perpetrated by Russia, it's easy to forget that we're not merely a victim amid the waves of repeated cyberattacks.

As the online world has grown to include sensitive information and the ability to control everything from power grids to airplanes, the U.S. is an active participant in a full-scale cyberwar with some of the most powerful governments in the world. This weekend's revelation about a sophisticated cyber-espionage program with possible ties to the U.S. is just another reminder of how extensive government spy programs have become and how important they are online and off.

Internet Security

Researchers at Symantec revealed the discovery of a wide-reaching program, called Regin, that let intruders spy on computers and telecommunications networks. The malicious software mostly targeted individuals via Internet service providers, as well as telecom traffic and hospitality companies. Once deployed, Regin let the intruders steal information, observe movements and record telecom activity.

In other words, Regin was a program designed to target people, rather than just big businesses or government agencies. And in that way it was somewhat reminiscent of the bulk phone record collection program that the National Security Agency implemented in the U.S. soon after Sept. 11.

A researcher at Symantec told Bloomberg TV that it was likely created by a nation state. It has been used to spy on computers and phone-call data since 2008, primarily in Russia and Saudi Arabia.

OMG Cyber! Thirteen Reasons Why Hype Makes for Bad Policy

The RUSI Journal

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DOI:10.1080/03071847.2014.969932Robert M Lee & Thomas Rid

Published online: 04 Nov 2014

Article Views: 9118

Abstract

For many austerity-hit Western countries, the defence budget has been a prime target for significant cuts. Nowhere has this been more apparent than in the United States. Yet one element of the Pentagon's budget continues to grow: cyber. High-profile security breaches at the corporate level and reports of cyber-espionage at the national level seemingly justify the vast sums involved in ensuring cyber-security. However, Robert M Lee and Thomas Rid argue that ‘cyber-angst’ is damaging – and self-serving. In this article, they list thirteen reasons why such cyber-security hype is counterproductive.

For many austerity-hit Western countries, the defence budget has been a prime target for significant cuts. Nowhere has this been more apparent than in the United States. Yet one element of the Pentagon's budget continues to grow: cyber. High-profile security breaches at the corporate level and reports of cyber-espionage at the national level seemingly justify the vast sums involved in ensuring cyber-security. However, Robert M Lee and Thomas Rid argue that ‘cyber-angst’ is damaging – and self-serving. In this article, they list thirteen reasons why such cyber-security hype is counterproductive.

Cyber is piping hot – and now more so than ever, with several scary precedents being set over the course of the last year. In late 2013, a massive security breach at Target, a major American retailer, compromised the credit-card data of as many as 40 million customers. A few months later, in May 2014, eBay suffered an even bigger breach that affected 145 million accounts. In September, intruders stole 56 million customer credit-card numbers from Home Depot, a US homeimprovement chain. Also in 2014, in another first, the US Department of Justice indicted five serving members of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) for stealing industrial secrets from several companies based in the Western District of Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Eastern European criminal syndicates are busier than ever; ‘Cybercrime is anonymous, sophisticated, and international – and Russian’, says Lee Miles, deputy head of the UK's National Cyber Crime Unit.1 In 2014, the market for information-security spending topped $70 billion.2 In September, NATO agreed that a cyber-attack could trigger a military response.

In the US, all of this nurtures hype; and the Washington Beltway forms the ideal Petri dish in which to cultivate the alarmism – several parties think that overstating ‘cyber’ is in their own best interest. Security firms like a clearly stated threat in order to sell their security products. Contractors capitalise on fear to get funding from the executive branch. The Pentagon finds a bit of hype useful to keep the money coming in. The armed services each eye a larger slice of the budget pie. The White House loves some good cyber-angst to nudge law-makers into action. Fear of Chinese cyber-attack makes it easier for members of Congress to relate to voters. Reporting cyber-war means that journalists sell more copy. Academics get quotations and attention from the buzz. Hype up cyber, and everybody wins.

Cyber Security: A Sine Qua Non

BySudhanshu Jain

25 Nov , 2014

The recent cyber attack originating from Pakistan with regard to the exodus by the people of the northeast and the tepid response from the government are worrying causes for the people of the country. Worst is that our secret documents are being pilfered from India by joint efforts by Pakistan and China via cyber warfare. It seems that India has become a staging ground for Pakistan and other rogue powers as to how to hurt the democratic powers, leaving no trace behind. The evil experiments staged in India by jihadi elements (with pliant China) are duplicated across the globe in the UK and the USA.

…the threat of terrorism has posed an immense challenge in the post-Cold War period. Terror attacks in major cities, towns and tourist resorts across the globe have demonstrated the inadequacy of the State mechanisms to address this challenge.

No surprise, Nasscom’s report “Securing Our Cyber Frontiers” calls for strong cyber infrastructure to deal with online crime. The report also suggests designing and implementing a competency framework and setting up a Centre of Excellence for best practice in cyber security. Besides, it has called for establishing a cyber command within the defence forces. It is worth mentioning that even before the above-mentioned north-eastern episode, the government had been victim of cyber crimes with a number of its websites being hit by cyber attacks. Sachin Pilot, Minister of State for Communications and IT, had revealed that 112 sites including those of Planning Commission, the Finance Ministry and various state government agencies, were defaced by cyber attacks. The Defence Research and Development Organisation also stressed the importance for having more resources to control these cyber attacks in near future. Against this backdrop, it is mandatory on part of the government that it must raise its vigilance especially the cyber intelligence against the disruptive forces coming from abroad and as well as home grown.

Cyber security is a complex issue that cuts across multiple domains and calls for multi-dimensional, multilayered initiatives and responses. It is a challenge for governments because different domains are typically administered through siloed ministries and departments. The task is made all the more difficult by the inchoate and diffuse nature of the threats and the inability to frame an adequate response in the absence of tangible perpetrators. The rapidity in the development of Information Technology (IT) and the relative ease with which applications can be commercialised has seen the use of cyberspace expand dramatically in its brief existence.

Soft Power: The Vaccine Against Oppression

By JAMES STAVRIDIS and MATTHEWDANIELS

November 25, 2014

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When he led NATO, Adm. James Stavridis regularly demonstrated his erudition and insight. We reporters loved talking with him, even if it was at breakfast in a DC hotel. He’s ridiculously over-educated, boasting both a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy and a doctorate from Tufts University, where he now leads their Fletcher School. Stavridis often tended to what military and national security types call soft power — the use of diplomacy, economic might and international cooperation — for solutions to the hard problems America faced, even as he led the world’s most powerful military alliance. In this op-ed, Stavridis lends his reputation and position again to soft power. 

Ebola is not the only virus threatening humanity. For nearly a decade, a spreading global contagion of oppression has caused setbacks in human rights of which ISIL is only the latest symptom. While no treatment has been developed for Ebola, a serum against its virulent moral and ideological counterparts emerged from the ashes of World War II. The vaccine is embodied in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali called, “the quintessential values through which we affirm together that we are a single human community.” The breakthrough vision at the core of the declaration is a call to ordinary men and women to unite in promoting the freedoms essential to fully realize our common humanity. 

It presumes that ordinary people will always have a greater stake in their own freedom than those in power. The declaration speaks of freedom of conscience, speech, property and privacy. It condemns slavery, torture and discrimination. It respects the dignity and worth of every human as equal regardless of race, nationality or gender. Although a powerful and elegant expression of our common birthright, the declaration was, arguably, 50 years ahead of its time. This “good idea virus” needed the web to connect the ordinary people who it seeks to protect. Equally important, it required a generation to come of age with the technology itself: “digital natives” who communicate across boundaries in ways we cannot now even imagine. Only then could this historic expression of universal human rights become a meaningful social reality. While the Universal Declaration is already the most translated document in history, the Internet has created an opportunity to promote its vision of universal rights through the world’s first nearly universal communications medium. 

FORECASTING NUCLEAR WAR

by Fortuna's Corner 

November 25, 2014 

Between 1981 and 1989 the foreign intelligence branches of the Soviet KGB and the East German Ministry of State Security launched a combined effort to develop a system for detecting signs of an impending western nuclear first strike. Codenamed “Project RYaN”, this early-warning system constituted one part of the Soviet response to the perceived threat of a surprise “decapitation” strike by NATO nuclear forces.

233 pages of newly translated documents from the Stasi’s Hauptverwaltung A and analysis by Bernd Schaefer, Nate Jones, and Benjamin Fischer below give unprecedented insight into the capabilities and fears of the Eastern Bloc intelligence services from the Able Archer ’83 War Scare to the end of the Cold War.

Click here to RSVP for the launch event on December 1st

Table of Contents

•Introduction

•The Vicious Cycle of Intelligece

•Comments on the Soviet-East German Intelligence Alert

•Document Appendix

Introduction to the Collection

In November 2012 CWIHP published e-Dossier No. 37 on the cooperation between the Soviet Committee for State Security (KGB) and the East German Ministry for State Security (MfS or Stasi), which highlighted a wide array of German documents dating from the 1960s through 1989. These materials were introduced by Walter Süss and Douglas Selvage, historians in the research division of the Federal Commissioner for the Stasi Records (BStU) in Berlin.[1] While e-Dossier No.37 featured just one document[2] on Soviet/East German preparations to detect a surprise Western “nuclear missile attack” (RYAN or Raketno Yadernoye Napadenie/Ракетно ядерное нападение in Russian) from August 1984, the BStU research division added a substantial number of German Stasi documents on RYAN to its online collection in 2013.[3] These new materials are remarkable and add to our understanding of the intentions, scope, and duration of the Soviet RYAN project; all of them are available in translation today in the CWHIP Digital Archive. The follow e-Dossier includes detailed comments and analysis on their significance by Nate Jones, a nuclear expert at the National Security Archive in Washington D.C., and Benjamin Fischer, a retired CIA officer and veteran researcher of RYAN and the so-called “Able Archer Crisis” of November 1983.

The August 1984 record of bilateral Stasi-KGB conversations, written by East German foreign intelligence spy chief Markus Wolf, includes an apt summarization of RYAN’s purpose by the Soviet representative: “The need for such approaches derives from the fact that a multitude of measures undertaken by the adversary do not allow advance determination which variation to launch a war the adversary will choose. In addition, we need to integrate experiences from analyzing the enemy’s crisis management into a process of further perfecting the definition of indicators to detect the adversary’s main measures for its acute war preparation.”[4]

It is undisputable that after 1979 the Soviet leadership, military, and intelligence service grew increasingly nervous about a “possible” Western “surprise nuclear missile attack” to “decapitate” the USSR’s nuclear potential and win a subsequent war

It is undisputable that after 1979 the Soviet leadership, military, and intelligence service grew increasingly nervous about a “possible” Western “surprise nuclear missile attack” to “decapitate” the USSR’s nuclear potential and win a subsequent war. The KGB operated an intelligence network to monitor worldwide “indicators” to detect to assess the likelihood of a “surprise nuclear missile attacked” launched by NATO. Soviet assessments of the likelihood of such an attack differed over the years, peaking between 1982 and 1984.

Led by an Armored Bulldozer, Shia Militia Fought to Restore Their Credibility

The battle in Jurf Al Sakhar involved a surprising number of Shia groups

The past four months have been absolutely disastrous for Shia militia in Syria and Iraq. Although the militia have helped to slow Islamic State’s advance in Iraq, the Sunni militant group still managed to launch a major assault toward Baghdad’s international airport in October.

The Islamic State fighters got so close to the airport—a strategic installation for Iraq—that U.S. Army Apache helicopters had to join in the defense. The airport battle was so embarrassing for government forces and their Iranian commanders that some Iraqi officials, speaking to Iranian media, flat-out denied the attack had even taken place.

Iranian commanders in Iraq and the Shia militia groups they control were badly in need of a victory to shore up their influence in Baghdad.

To help lead the attack, some militiamen would slap armor on a bulldozer.

On Oct. 20th, fewer than three weeks ahead of the Shia Ashura holiday, Iranian major general Ghassem Soleymani paid a visit to Karbala, southwest of Baghdad. Immediately after visiting Karbala, Soleymani headed up a crucial operation to retake Jurf Al Sakhar from Islamic State.

Jurf Al Sakhar is a rural town on the Baghdad-Karbala road, approximately 60 kilometers south of Baghdad and 65 kilometers north of Karbala. Jurf Al Sakhar has a population of 80,000 in peacetime. With its large Sunni community, it’s become an important staging area for suicide bombers and terrorist attacks targeting Shia holy cities in southern Iraq, particularly Karbala.

Jurf Al Sakhar was the perfect target for a monumental victory to restore the Shia militias’ vitality.

Above—Iraqi police arrive in Jurf Al Sakhar in October. At top—Iraqi troops attack militants in Jurf Al Sakhar. AP photos

The Russian Air Force's Super Weapon: Beware the PAK-FA Stealth Fighter

Dave Majumdar

November 26, 2014

Should the West be worried about Russia's next-generation fighter-jet? 

The Russian Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA stealth fighter could prove to be a formidable competitor to American fifth-generation combat aircraft such as the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Indeed, in some measures, the new Russian warplane will exceed both U.S.-built jets, but the PAK-FA is not without its flaws.

“The analysis that I have seen on the PAK-FA indicates a pretty sophisticated design that is at least equal to, and some have said even superior to U.S. fifth-generation aircraft,” former U.S. Air Force intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula told the National Interest. “It certainly has greater agility with its combination of thrust vectoring, all moving tail surfaces, and excellent aerodynamic design, than does the F-35.”

Indeed, the PAK-FA appears to be optimized for the air-superiority role like the F-22 more so than the multirole, strike-optimized F-35. Like the Raptor, the PAK-FA is being designed to fly high and fast to impart the maximum amount of launch energy to its arsenal of long-range air-to-air missiles—which would greatly increase the range of those missiles.

“Performance-wise it certainly looks to compete with the Raptor,” one senior military official with extensive experience on U.S. fifth-generation fighters told the National Interest.

Like the F-22, the Russian machine is expected to be able to cruise supersonically for extended periods of time—probably faster than Mach 1.5. The aircraft’s maximum speed should be greater than Mach 2.0—assuming its low observables coatings can handle the stress.

However, unlike the American fifth-generation aircraft, the PAK-FA places less emphasis of stealth, and much more emphasis on maneuverability. While it could compete with the Raptor in terms of raw kinematic performance, the PAK-FA greatly exceeds the F-35. And that performance margin might increase.

Action at Defence Ministry at last Bigger challenges need to be faced

Inder Malhotra

The Indian armed forces should be liberated from the stranglehold of the generalist babus of the MoD

FOR over a quarter of a century the Indian Army has desperately needed artillery guns. But no matter how hard it tried it couldn't get them. One reason for this, of course, was the aftermath of the Bofors scandal, which became the standard excuse of all concerned not to take any decision at all. There was an element of disingenuousness in this posturing. For, despite the commissions worth Rs 64 crore distributed to the still unnamed beneficiaries, the Swedish gun served this country superbly during the Kargil war. Ironically, it was at the peak of this fight that the Army discovered to its dismay that it was running out of ammunition because of the obsession of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to blacklist all suppliers it suspected or disliked. Ultimately, we had to buy the ammunition from South Africa at thrice the normal price. Even this made no difference to the civilian bureaucracy in the MoD and its political bosses. Indecision remained the ruling doctrine of both. Sadly, A. K. Antony, a very fine man with an enviable reputation for personal probity, who has been the longest-serving Defence Minister so far, became the biggest hurdle to decision-making. By doing nothing he was sure of retaining his image as "St. Antony".

Against this bleak backdrop it is greatly to be welcomed that within a few days after his appointment as Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has ended the paralysis over the procurement of artillery guns by clearing the decks for acquiring 814 long-range mounted artillery guns to fill a serious gap in its equipment and, therefore, in its overall capability. The cost will be Rs 15,570 crore. The deal was approved after a serious consideration at a Defence Acquisition Council meeting that Mr Parrikar presided over for the first time. He also said that the DAC should meet oftener than it has done so far even if its agenda is rather short. My first thought on hearing this was that Prime Minister Narendra Modi should have handed over the Defence Ministry to the former Goa Chief Minister while forming his Cabinet on May 26. Mr Parrikar has laid down that that the acquisition of artillery guns — like all future procurements — will take place within the framework of the Prime Minister’s “Make-in-India” concept.

While the Army will buy 100 guns off the shelf of the foreign vendor, the remaining 714 will be manufactured here. Global tenders will be floated soon, and the Indian manufacturer will have to "tie up" with the selected foreign vendor for building the gun. Several Indian companies such as the Tatas, Larsen & Toubro and Kalyani, as well as the public sector Ordnance Factory Board have already produced prototypes of 155mm, 52 calibre guns. They are all likely to take part in the bid.

So far, so good. But the real point is that the defenders of the country's freedom and frontiers will be greatly handicapped in discharging their duty until the makers of policy on national security attend to the fundamental task of reforming the higher management of the defence system. Civilian control over the military is, of course, the basic principle in every democracy. Indeed, even in China the doctrine of the “Party controlling the Gun” has prevailed since the time of Mao Zedong. The present Chinese President, Xi Jinping, has reinforced it. But in a democracy like India the civilian supremacy does not, and must not, mean the supremacy of civil servants. It is long overdue that the Indian armed forces — absolutely apolitical, unlike the armies of some of our neighbours — should be liberated from the stranglehold of the generalist babus of the MoD. In recent years when a service chief informally and politely told the then Prime Minister that he and his two opposite numbers regretted that they were not asked to be present at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), the reply he got was: “Well, you were represented by the Defence secretary”! This pattern has to end.

Getting Jawaharlal Nehru's autograph

Lieut-Gen Baljit Singh (retd)

MY generation of Indians, who entered colleges in the early 1950s, did not have any structured education about neither the nationwide movement seeking independence from colonial rule nor the personalities who were in the vanguard of that mission. My understanding of those momentous times was gleaned chiefly from reading random pages of three books on my father's bookshelf; biographies of Mahatma Gandhi by C F Andrews and Louis Fischer and “An Autobiography” by Jawaharlal Nehru. In due course, the latter book acquired symbolism of memorabilia.

I had arrived home on winter vacation in December, 1951, a few days prior to Prime Minister Nehru's address to an election rally at Sangrur where my father was posted as the Deputy Commissioner. There was just one air strip in Punjab those days and Mr Nehru’s motor cavalcade was late by an hour and the crowd of several thousand peasants was becoming restive. But the moment the Prime Minister in a brown-coloured woollen “Achkan” and a white Churidar mounted the podium, there was instant hushed silence which only a charismatic and inspiring personality can infuse among his audience.

Though I was privileged to sit on one of the few chairs upon the rostrum, I was simply mesmerised to be in the shadow of the great man that I paid scant attention to his speech. He finished his exhortation with a flourish, by asking his audience to get up and join him in a full-throated chorus of “Bharat Mata Ki Jai Ho” three times over!

All this while I had sat holding a book and a pen but no sooner did Mr Nehru turn to leave than I stepped forward and, as tutored by my father, opened the book and requested him to autograph it, at the marked page. The catechism “Chacha Nehru” had not gained currency at the time but his love of children was so evident that not only did he break into a gentle smile but also gladly autographed it and patted me on my cheek. I was to learn later in the day that recounted on that page was Mr Nehru’s arrest at Jaitaun (a village in the interior of Nabha princely state) on May 23, 1923, for inciting disorder by the agitating Akalis and his lodgement in Nabha jail. And when produced in court the following day, a kindly Sikh Magistrate ordered the police to remove the handcuffs as the accused was not a criminal. Mr Nehru was obviously pleased by the fair sense of jurisprudence shown by the Magistrate and even more so by his humanity as a few days later the Magistrate visited the jail to enquire whether he was reasonably comfortable! That endorsement of probity by Mr Nehru was intrinsically valued like a family heirloom because the Magistrate was my father's father!

As befitting the spirit of the times, the hard binding of the first edition of “An Autobiography” had off-white ‘khadi’ cloth pasted as its outer wrap with his autograph imprinted on the upper half of the front cover which, in a manner of speaking, also symbolised the elegance of Mr Nehru, the man.

Starting at minus one

Written by Pratap Bhanu Mehta 

Posted: November 27, 2014

The besetting sin of government now is casualness more than venality.

As expectations for reform soar, it is important to remind ourselves of the nature and magnitude of the challenge. There is much talk about second-generation reforms. But as one smart government official quipped: Forget second-generation reforms, India needs minus-one generation reforms. We don’t even know what we are facing. Political stability, the RBI’s determined effort to fight inflation (despite big business engaging in ideological obfuscation) and changing international circumstances have altered the mood. But the underlying rot is deep. Its surface has yet to be scratched. Too much energy is being expended on reforms that are besides the point, rather than on credible fundamentals.

Just imagine this. Structural regulatory uncertainty continues to affect about a quarter of India’s economy in sectors like mining, natural resources, any investment involving land. This has large indirect effects. There is always some uncertainty and dispute in an economy. But structural regulatory uncertainty basically means that a pricing mechanism has irrevocably broken down. You can have either a market mechanism or an administered price mechanism. The problem is that we do not have either that is credible.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was right to say in Australia that reform by stealth does not work. What it ended up creating was institutions that had neither the old certainties of state-set prices in areas like coal, nor fully developed markets. Add to this the fact that the legal landscape has now become incredibly complicated: The coal judgment, for example, does not just raise questions about the method of giving mining licences; it has implications for federalism and who should be issuing them. But we underestimate this fact. The regulatory web is now so tangled that you don’t quite know what will happen if you pull at one string. This history of regulatory reform in India, with a few exceptions, has ended up muddying the landscape rather than clarifying it.

Two of the most critical sectors for the economy, health and education, exhibit these characteristics. The single biggest mistake of the right to education, for instance, was to muddy the distinction between public and private. Instead of saying let the public do its job and the private its function, we now have a regulatory system than distorts both irretrievably. And now it is proving near impossible to set the system right. The health sector is a combination of laissez faire and half-baked regulatory interventions. And each attempt to reform the system makes it more vulnerable. There is no reliable measure of inflation in these two sectors either, which probably has a greater effect on the rest of the economy than we realise.

All factors of production still face pricing and structural uncertainty. Add to this the quiet chaos in the financial system. The Indian banking system was not good at assessing projects or pricing risk. Or rather, what it was good at was assessing risk in the context of a closed loop of crony capitalism, where you could count on renegotiated contracts, unscrutinised gold-plating and government patronage. But there are two problems. The first is whether there will be a banking culture that can price risk and promote innovation. The jury is out on this one. The second is this: The lines of credit look more like electricity wires in a standard Indian city — so tangled that you don’t know what you will short circuit if you try and straighten and clean them up.

The new Iron Curtain of Europe

SATTWICK BARMAN

Reuters"Immigration is one of the most divisive issues confronting an already bitterly divided Europe." Picture shows a golfer hitting a tee shot as African migrants sit atop a border fence while attempting to cross into Spanish territories from Morocco.

Changing demographics, the global recession and increasing pressure on the welfare system has ratcheted up cultural and racial tensions in Germany

On November 9, a bitterly cold and overcast day, Berliners were out on the streets in thousands to commemorate a landmark event in the history of the 20th century. It had been 25 years since the Berlin Wall, a brutal and crude symbol of the Cold War, came crashing down, heralding the end of the Soviet Union that, for most of the latter half of the century, had been locked in an existential battle with the West.

The mood was somewhat sombre, tinged with a sense of triumph and pride that Germany had emerged stronger after a peaceful reunification, taking its rightful place as a major power at the high table of international politics. People milled around the vestiges of the Wall, talking of the days when it still stood, and watched documentaries on giant video installations of the chaotic days leading to the moment when East Germans, tired of decades of suffering in a Kafkaesque nightmare, brought it down. But while Berliners and the thousands of tourists who had descended upon the city celebrated, not much attention was paid to the new walls that have been erected around Europe to keep away immigrants and refugees from impoverished, strife-ridden countries in search of a better life.

According to a study by a consortium of European journalists, in the past 14 years, close to 24,000 refugees from outside the European Union (EU) have died trying to reach the continent.Welfare curbs

At present, immigration is one of the most divisive issues confronting an already bitterly divided Europe. In May, Eurosceptic, far-right parties in France, the U.K. and other nations made big gains after contesting the EU elections on an anti-immigration agenda. They received a boost on November 11, when the European Court of Justice weighed in on the issue, ruling that the EU’s richer countries could limit the access of migrants from other EU states to welfare benefits if they migrate only to claim social aid.