Jake Sullivan and Tal Feldman
Everyone has a theory of artificial intelligence. Some believe the technology is progressing toward superintelligence—powerful AI that will bring epochal changes beyond any previous technology. Others expect that it will boost productivity and scientific discovery but will follow a more uneven and potentially less dramatic path.
People also disagree about how easily breakthroughs can be replicated. Some argue that rivals will fast-follow (that is, quickly imitate), whereas others believe catching up will become slower and costlier, giving first movers lasting advantage. And whereas many are sure China is determined to beat the United States at the frontier, others insist it is focused on deployment of existing technology while seeking to distill and reproduce leading-edge American innovations once they appear.
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