National Interest | Paul J. Saunders
Iran's leaders, like Russia before them, are learning that threatening an oil crisis loses leverage once the crisis begins. President Donald Trump claims to have secured Chinese President Xi Jinping's commitment to forgo arming Iran, while the US and Iran engage in a half-hearted cease-fire and talks. The article argues that while a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be costly globally, it would be far more disastrous for Iran, which is already in a dire economic state. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent cut-off of pipeline gas to Europe demonstrated that Europe adapted, creating a new energy system and diminishing Russia's leverage. The US, with its singular leadership and superior military capabilities compared to Europe's combined forces, would likely harden its position and escalate if Iran forces a global oil crisis, potentially leading to demands for decisive action against Tehran. A Strait of Hormuz shutdown is a card, not a checkmate.
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