Newsweek | Tom O'Connor
The ongoing war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran significantly strains Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) cohesion, particularly as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) become increasingly involved. The UAE's growing ties with Israel, formalized in 2020 via the Abraham Accords, create contention with Riyadh, despite their longstanding partnership. This rift is evident in the UAE's alleged role in aiding non-state actors in Libya, Sudan, and Yemen, where Saudi Arabia recently dismantled a UAE-tied secessionist movement. Experts like Nawaf Obaid describe this as a regional "Thucydides Trap," with the UAE expanding influence against Saudi Arabia, the central Arab power. The UAE's recent exit from OPEC+ and reported hosting of Israeli troops and Iron Dome systems, alongside defense collaboration, underscore its strategic pivot. While Saudi Arabia seeks broader alliances with Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan, Israel views the UAE as its top Arab partner. This dynamic, exacerbated by the October 2023 Hamas attack derailing Saudi-Israel normalization, creates a "zero-sum game" in the Middle East, with fluid coalitions and risks of strategic miscalculation amidst Iran's formidable presence.
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