IISS | Paul Fraioli
Advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and converging technologies are propelling humanity into a new industrial revolution, mirroring the transformative scale of the Second Industrial Revolution. AI agents, capable of sustained, multi-step autonomous action, are rapidly maturing, with large language models improving by a factor of 21 every two years since 2010. This technological shift is underpinned by simultaneous advancements in lithium-ion batteries (costs down to $108/kWh), solar photovoltaics (now $0.26/watt), specialized semiconductors (NVIDIA's parallel processing), sophisticated sensors (LIDAR from $75,000 to under $200), and efficient brushless electric motors. These foundational developments enable the mass production of advanced and humanoid robots, capable of operating tools and systems designed for humans. China possesses a significant advantage in industrial scale, installing 54% of industrial robots in 2024 and leading in open-weight AI models and electricity generation. In the West, Elon Musk's companies (xAI, Tesla, SpaceX) are vertically integrating these core technologies, with xAI's Colossus facility alone requiring 300 megawatts for 200,000 advanced graphics chips. This convergence is projected to dramatically alter economic growth and labor dynamics by the late 2020s or early 2030s.
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