23 May 2026

The next war will be won — or lost — in orbit

SpaceNews  |  Graeme Ritchie
The conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the critical dependence of modern defense on space systems, particularly Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) capabilities, which are vulnerable to disruption. The United Kingdom, despite pledging to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and adding £2.2 billion for 2025–26, lacks sufficient space resilience. Its current architecture is fragile, with a few systems carrying the bulk of the load and many relying on constant human control, making them susceptible to degradation or denial in conflict. To address this, the UK needs to proliferate crucial system elements for redundancy, sharing vital tasks across the fleet to prevent single points of failure. Furthermore, improving space domain awareness through autonomous systems is essential for accurate attribution and timely response to disruptions, moving beyond an outdated worldview of space as a peaceful domain.

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