Council on Foreign Relations | Elisa Ewers, Michael Schiffer
China is closely observing the "Iran War" as a strategic case study for potential future conflicts with the United States, particularly concerning Taiwan. Iran's strategy, which focused on imposing significant economic and political costs without seeking outright military victory, offers Beijing a blueprint for multi-domain warfare. By choking the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy markets, and leveraging time, Tehran demonstrated how to generate substantial pressure. Chinese strategists could apply similar tactics to Taiwan, employing a layered campaign of maritime quarantine, cyber disruption, financial pressure, and selective military actions to create cumulative pressure on Taiwan, regional allies, and the United States. This approach aims to exploit U.S. vulnerabilities, such as finite military capabilities, readiness costs, and the challenge of managing rapidly cascading economic and political consequences, thereby diminishing the credibility of U.S. commitments in Asia. The conflict highlights that the U.S. must prepare for prolonged, multi-domain confrontations where economic disruption and political pressures are as decisive as military outcomes, a fundamentally different test of power.
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