17 May 2026

Key Changes in U.S. and Chinese Military Capabilities, 2017–2024

RAND Corporation  |  Jacob L. Heim, Cristina L. Garafola
U.S. defense policymakers identify the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the most formidable military competitor to the United States, necessitating a detailed understanding of the evolving military balance. This paper compiles open-source data on the significant changes in both PRC and U.S. military capabilities between 2017 and 2024, serving as a critical reference for U.S. policymakers and the public. The analysis aims to inform strategic planning and decision-making by outlining the trajectory of military modernization and force development in both nations. By systematically documenting these shifts, the RAND Corporation provides an essential resource for assessing the dynamics of the U.S.-China military competition, highlighting areas of convergence, divergence, and potential strategic implications for regional and global security.

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