India-China Border Incidents Database Project

Y Nithiyanandam & Ayush Hegde

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25 August 1959 | Longju, Subansiri Frontier Division, NEFA

The first serious armed clash between Indian and Chinese forces occurred at Longju, Subansiri Frontier Division, erstwhile North-East Frontier Agency (NEFA), presently Arunachal Pradesh, when PLA (People’s Liberation Army) troops attacked personnel of the Assam Rifles. 

21 October 1959 | Kongka La, Aksai Chin

A joint party of the Intelligence Bureau and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) was ambushed by heavily armed and entrenched Chinese PLA soldiers near Kongka Pass.

Most Comprehensive Unclassified Order of Battle for China’s Sea Services! Latest “Modern Chinese Maritime Forces” Covers Growing Nuke Sub Force!

Andrew Erickson

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Follow the latest developments in China’s growing nuclear-powered submarine force (pp. 20–22) and beyond with this new edition of “Modern Chinese Maritime Forces,” the most comprehensive open source PRC sea services inventory! As we gallop through the Year of the Fire Horse (火马年), China under Xi is steaming full speed ahead, particularly at sea. Navigate troubled Indo-Pacific waters by consulting the latest version of Modern Chinese Maritime Forces!

China’s Navy is simultaneously sustaining high-rate production, beginning a new generation of surface combatants, and continuing comprehensive force expansion across the waterfront. China’s Coast Guard and Maritime Militia are achieving similarly rapid advances.

Pakistan shouldn’t put all of its guns in China’s basket

Suffian Zafar and Najeeb Ullah

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As great powers like the United States pursue frameworks that impose growing security, political, and economic burdens on smaller states, middle and small powers face mounting pressure to reassess their interests. Countries like Pakistan must draw on historical experience to navigate this turbulent moment and chart a more autonomous course.

Three priorities stand out. First, Pakistan must reduce its defense dependency on China through a calculated alternative strategy. Second, making a middle-power military-industrial complex — such as Turkey’s — into a major defense partner is crucial to hedging great-power competition and promoting defense multilateralism. Third, building indigenous naval capacity and maritime security through joint ventures in underwater drones, frigates, naval exercises and navigation technology would strengthen strategic autonomy.

The Myth of the PRC’s Overseas Energy Vulnerability

Daniel Fu

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Experts in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) argue that the country’s energy system is resilient enough to withstand major external disruptions, including conflict in the Persian Gulf, repudiating Western claims of PRC vulnerability to strategic chokepoints.

Through supply route diversification via Russia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, potential blockades of the straits of Hormuz or Malacca now inflict less economic damage to the PRC’s energy supply. Global economic interdependence and the PRC’s growing domestic energy capacity further limit risk of disruption. Strategic petroleum reserves, diversified imports, domestic production (especially coal), and rapid expansion of renewable energy have helped reduce the PRC’s reliance on seaborne oil and enhanced its long-term energy security.

China Has a Battle Plan to Defeat the U.S. Army

Michael David Peck

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U.S. Army M1A2 tank during exercise at National Training Center in 2019. Photo by Spc. Nathan Franco, DVIDS The last time that China and America fought a major ground battle was in the Korean War, almost 75 years ago.

But that Chinese army of poorly equipped peasants – who still came perilously close to ejecting U.S. forces from the Korean peninsula – are long gone. If U.S. troops were to fight the People’s Liberation Army of today, they would encounter a foe that is far more technologically and tactically sophisticated than in 1950. The PLA’s evolution can be seen in a scenario recently tested by U.S. Army experts: what would happen if a Chinese Heavy Combined Arms Brigade (HCAB) fought a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team (BCT)? These are roughly equivalent units of about 5,000 soldiers each.

The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

Daniel Byman

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For now, the United States, Israel, and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire and only a ceasefire. Numerous contentious issues remain unresolved, ranging from Iran’s nuclear and missile programs to Tehran’s support for proxies and repression of protesters at home. Tehran, for its part, seeks an end to U.S. sanctions, the right to enrich uranium, an end to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, and other demands, as well as guarantees that attacks on Iran will not resume. The war itself has also generated new demands: Iran seeks compensation for the devastation caused by U.S. and Israeli bombing and is claiming that it will demand payment for tankers seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are far apart, and both seek to convince audiences at home that they have won—something that will further complicate negotiations.

It is possible that the ceasefire itself will be the settlement: The United States, Israel, and Iran will not come to a final deal, but the ceasefire will continue indefinitely, with the risk of a flare-up hovering over the region.

Tehran Takes the Strait — and the Premium

Natalia Katona

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March has turned into a month of hard power tests for Iran – and so far, it has been quietly exceeding expectations. By effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz to all but its own cargoes (or the ones that have received their approval), Tehran has demonstrated that the trajectory of the conflict is far from being dictated by its counterparts. Faced with the risk of acute shortages in medium-sour crude, the US administration has been forced into a partial sanctions retreat, allowing Iranian barrels already at sea to re-enter the market. The result is a striking reversal — Iranian crude, once deeply discounted, is now trading at a $1/bbl premium to ICE Brent, while the pool of willing buyers is slowly but steadily widening.

Iran entered the escalation phase with export momentum already building, loading crude at 2.2 million b/d in February – the highest level since 2018. In March, when all other Tehran’s neighbours had their barrels trapped inside the Gulf, Iranian crude exports only eased slightly to 1.9 million b/d. But what mattered more than volumes was pricing power. Iranian Light into China has flipped from a steep $12/bbl discount to a $1/bbl premium to ICE Brent, an extraordinary reversal for a heavily sanctioned grade.

Bowen: Ceasefire means respite for civilians, but it might not last long

Jeremy Bowen

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In a day, Donald Trump went from threatening that Iran's civilisation "will die tonight" to declaring that Iran's ten-point plan was a "workable" basis for negotiation in Pakistan. The ceasefire, first and foremost, is a respite for all those civilians across the Middle East who have been under fire since the United States and Israel went to war against Iran on 28 February.

They do not include the people of Lebanon. After insisting that the ceasefire did not apply to Lebanon, Israel launched a huge and deadly wave of air strikes. The respite elsewhere might not last long. Both Iran and the US have strong reasons to end the war. But their publicly declared positions are way apart. Two weeks lie ahead to attempt to make a deal between two sides that do not trust each other.

How Pakistan Helped Secure a Cease-Fire in Iran

Michael Kugelman

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Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Pakistan plays a leading role in brokering a U.S.-Iran cease-fire, South Asia remains very vulnerable to the ongoing energy crisis, and China hosts talks between Pakistan and the Taliban.

What’s Next for Oil Markets After the Ceasefire Agreement?

Clayton Seigle

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The ceasefire announced by President Trump on April 7 implicitly acknowledges Iran’s newfound control over Gulf energy flows—a strategic challenge for oil market stability and the interests of Gulf Arab exporting countries. The United States has halted the military campaign it started six weeks ago with Tehran poised to call the shots on oil and gas exports. As was the case prior to the ceasefire, tanker vessels will require Iran’s approval to exit the Gulf, which may be conditioned on a new tolling fee arrangement.

Following Trump’s announcement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated: “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”

The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

Daniel Byman

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After over a month of fighting, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The ceasefire is fragile, and many of the key factors that will determine its durability are unclear. Below are six issues to watch as negotiations play out.

Ceasefire or a Settlement?

For now, the United States, Israel, and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire and only a ceasefire. Numerous contentious issues remain unresolved, ranging from Iran’s nuclear and missile programs to Tehran’s support for proxies and repression of protesters at home. Tehran, for its part, seeks an end to U.S. sanctions, the right to enrich uranium, an end to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, and other demands, as well as guarantees that attacks on Iran will not resume. The war itself has also generated new demands: Iran seeks compensation for the devastation caused by U.S. and Israeli bombing and is claiming that it will demand payment for tankers seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are far apart, and both seek to convince audiences at home that they have won—something that will further complicate negotiations.

What’s Next for Oil Markets After the Ceasefire Agreement?

Clayton Seigle

Source Link

The ceasefire announced by President Trump on April 7 implicitly acknowledges Iran’s newfound control over Gulf energy flows—a strategic challenge for oil market stability and the interests of Gulf Arab exporting countries. The United States has halted the military campaign it started six weeks ago with Tehran poised to call the shots on oil and gas exports. As was the case prior to the ceasefire, tanker vessels will require Iran’s approval to exit the Gulf, which may be conditioned on a new tolling fee arrangement.

Following Trump’s announcement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated: “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”

Three Things To Watch As The US-Iran Cease-Fire Takes Hold – Analysis

Kian Sharifi

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The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week cease-fire, brokered by Pakistan, premised on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement came less than two hours before US President Donald Trump’s self-imposed deadline was set to expire at 8 pm ET on April 7.

Global markets rallied. Oil prices fell. Leaders around the world expressed relief.

But the cease-fire is already proving to be fragile, with Iranian strikes reported across Arab states in the Persian Gulf just hours after the pause in fighting went into effect. Meanwhile, Israel has continued its attacks in Lebanon on Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy that has been designated a terror organization by Washington.

Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet

Mohamed A. Hussein and Amr Alkazaz

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After 40 days of fighting, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Wednesday morning, with negotiations expected to begin on Friday in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. One of the key points in Iran’s 10‑point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped during peacetime, but which has been in effect closed almost since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.

Over the past six weeks, more than 100 countries have raised prices at petrol pumps. Several governments, mostly in Asia, have declared national energy emergencies and introduced strict measures to limit consumption, including work-from-home policies, shorter working weeks, fuel rationing and curfews.

‘Our geography is our oil’: Why Djibouti hosts many foreign military bases

Faisal Ali

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It also hosts the densest cluster of foreign military bases in the world, with bases from the United States, China, France, Japan and Italy operating within miles of each other along its coastline.

Recommended Storieslist of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Iran threatens Bab al-Mandeb closure: How would that affect world trade?

These countries, seeking bases for both commercial and security purposes, have been warmly welcomed by President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who has ruled for at least two decades and leveraged the country’s strategic location to advance his own aims. As Djiboutians go to the polls on Friday with Guelleh safely expected to win his sixth term, it is a strategy that has never looked more consequential.

The 'Moral Imperative' Behind the Rescues in Iran

Forrest Marion

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The writer gratefully acknowledges this powerful, clarifying phrase—moral imperative—as the title employed by noted air power historian, and a mentor and friend, Col. Darrel D. Whitcomb (USAF, retired); see his Moral Imperative: 1972, Combat Rescue, and the End of America’s War in Vietnam.

The day after The Rescue on 5 April, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu congratulated President Trump and the Americans who pulled off this daring, high-risk mission. Netanyahu said, in part:

All Israelis rejoice in the incredible rescue of a brave American pilot, by America’s dauntless warriors.[i] This proves that when free societies muster their courage, and their resolve, they can confront seemingly insurmountable odds, and overcome the forces of darkness and terror. This rescue operation reinforces a sacred principle: no one is left behind. This is a shared value demonstrated time and time again in the history of both our countries.

Opinion – The 47-Year War of Attrition in the Middle East and North Africa

Patricia Sohn

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In announcing that the U.S. war objectives in Iran have been nearly completed, U.S. President Donald Trump also reminded listeners that this war in the Middle East and North Africa has been going on for 47 years, or since the Iranian hostage crisis in 1979. A watershed year, 1979 marked the end of the Iranian Revolution, the beginning of the Iranian hostage crisis, and (in Afghanistan) the beginning of an attempt to create a Soviet foothold in both the Middle East and South Asia. The next year saw the start of the Iran-Iraq war, and by that time the Lebanese Civil War was already five years underway. 

While the Iranian Revolution ended in 1979, the remaining of these conflicts and crises ended around 1988-1990. However, these major wars in the Middle East and North Africa were followed by internecine conflict that involved international jihadist movements, the U.S., and Europe; wars of attrition on several key borders; an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait; localized non-state actors fighting their own regimes or a neighboring regime; localized revolutions in Libya and elsewhere; the wars in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan; and, of course, the Arab Spring and the Syrian Revolution.

Information Lethality Revisited: Strategic Influence and the Future of War

Bill Rivera

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In February 2019, the author, with Arnel David, argued in these pages that the United States military’s understanding of lethality was dangerously incomplete. The concept had become a defining priority of the Department of Defense (DoD)—appearing across modernization strategies, acquisition frameworks, and doctrinal literature—yet it was treated almost exclusively as a physical phenomenon: the ability to find, fix, and destroy enemy forces. We argued then that this was insufficient. To view lethality only through a physical lens limits its full potential. Lethality at the strategic level, we contended, must also include the capacity to break an adversary’s will to fight. And that capacity is increasingly exercised not through firepower, but through influence. We have used influence to support kinetic action. This paper argues that this order of events is inverted: kinetic action should operate within the framework of strategic influence, not the other way around.

The strategic competition between the United States and its rivals has intensified. The cost of kinetic warfare—in blood, treasure, and strategic credibility—has grown exponentially. Meanwhile, peer and near-peer competitors have continued to invest heavily in influence-based strategies, reshaping political environments, undermining alliances, and projecting power without firing a shot. The gap between what the United States understands as lethality and what its adversaries practice as strategy has not closed. If anything, it has widened.

Inside the US Army’s Nuclear Disablement Teams: Surgical Strike Forces Against Nuclear Weapons

Guy D. McCardle 

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The US Army’s Nuclear Disablement Teams stand as silent sentinels, expertly safeguarding against nuclear threats.More in ArmyMore by Guy D. McCardleOperators clear the way, then the specialists move in, US Army Nuclear Disablement Teams handle the devices no one else can touch. Image Source: DVIDs In the shadows of the world’s most perilous threats, the US Army’s Nuclear Disablement Teams (NDTs) stand vigilant, a silent shield against the specter of nuclear devastation.

On the testing grounds of Aberdeen, Maryland, these unsung heroes have been sharpening their skills, ensuring they’re ready to counter the dark tide of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) that looms on the horizon.

Training for the Unthinkable

Iran Truce Or Dare? – Analysis

Björn Stritzel

Soure Link

After five weeks of bombardment, a ceasefire is now supposed to take hold. Yet the central elements of this truce remain entirely unclear: when or whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to shipping; whether Iran will relinquish its highly enriched uranium or continue enrichment; whether its ballistic missile program will be dismantled and whether Tehran will persist in pursuing its imperial ambitions through proxies.

The Israeli and American air campaign was at first conspicuously successful, with much of Iran’s navy destroyed and dozens of the most senior political and military leaders eliminated.

Yet, the Iranian regime proved more resilient than many anticipated. Its command structures remained intact despite decapitation strikes, and the hunt by Israeli and American air forces for Iranian missile launchers failed to prevent continued ballistic missile launches, even if they succeeded in curtailing them.

Why US Regime Pretends Israel’s Nuclear Weapons Don’t Exist – OpEd

Ryan McMaken

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It’s difficult to find much of anything we might call “good” coming out of the current US-Israel war against Iran. Yet, one positive development has been the fact that Israel’s deceitful practice of pretending it has no nuclear weapons program is now untenable. The renewal of the discussion around Israel’s nuclear arms program was prompted in part by Iranian missile strikes in the area of Dimona, a city in southern Israel known to house Israel’s nuclear research facilities.

In a March 22 report on the strikes by the Jerusalem Post, the ongoing denials by the Israeli state are noted: “In the 1960s, then prime minister Levi Eshkol vowed that “Israel will not be the first state to introduce nuclear weapons into the region.” The sentiment has been repeated by Israeli officials since.”

How is the field of Cognitive Warfare actually being built?—and who is shaping it? Mapping the cognitive warfare literature: A strategic analysis

Sara Russo

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What this research does

The study uses a PRISMA-aligned bibliometric and network analysis to examine the research landscape on cognitive warfare and related concepts from 1981 to 2025. It begins from a broader corpus, narrows it through successive screening phases, and then isolates a refined core of publications most conceptually aligned with cognitive warfare. More precisely, the workflow moved from 2,740 screened records, to 1,915 publications for bibliometric analysis, and then to a final core corpus of 289 publications for refined conceptual analysis.

AI and Critical Thinking

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This year, I will be inviting a range of experts on military affairs and strategy to write for Futura Doctrina. The subjects will encompass war, strategic competition, national strategy, technology, human capacity and other issues germane to learning from modern war and preparing for future conflict. The first guest contributor is Dr Frank Hoffman, who writes about the importance of aligning critical thinking skills and the employment of AI in military organisations.

With all the hype and hyperbole about Artificial Intelligence (AI) it is hard to determine what these rapidly evolving technologies can and cannot deliver. The opinions range from posing an existential threat or being less than useless machines. Many military institutions are now carefully exploring where AI might have payoffs. Conservative by nature, the armed services have more concerns and less consensus about AI applications due to the nonlinear character of warfare.

PRC Supply Chain Ecosystem Behind Iran's Drone Campaign

Christopher Nye & Charles Sun

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In March 2026, Iran’s drone campaign consumed thousands of expendable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The critical technologies, manufacturing equipment, and components underpinning these platforms trace to the civilian manufacturing ecosystem of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), channeled through private capital acquisition, reverse engineering, and the systematic exploitation of dual-use trade ambiguities.

The PRC’s drone supply chain operates as a “manufacturing plain”—a flat landscape of interchangeable micro-enterprises, as distinct from the “mountain peak” defense contractors that sanctions are designed to neutralize. Individually targetable but collectively inexhaustible, with minimal staffing and nominal business scopes unrelated to aviation, these firms channel drone-applicable materiel to sanctioned end-users at scale.