Rupees, Roubles & Refining: The Geopolitics of India’s Oil Sourcing

Nitishastra | Navroop Singh and Himja Parekh

India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer, significantly diversified its crude oil imports between April and May 2026, increasing overall imports by 8.5% to 4,920,000 bpd. This strategic shift, driven by geopolitical tensions and favorable pricing, saw Russian crude imports surge by 413,000 bpd to 1.98 million bpd, while Saudi Arabian supplies plummeted by 330,000 bpd to 340,000 bpd due to cost-prohibitive Official Selling Prices.

INDIAN NAVY MARITIME SECURITY STRATEGY-2026 RELEASED BY CNS, ADMIRAL DINESH K TRIPATHI, DURING COMMANDERS' CONFERENCE IN NEW DELHI

Indian Navy

The Indian Navy Maritime Security Strategy-2026 was released by CNS, Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi, during the Commanders' Conference in New Delhi, outlining the Navy's action plan for the coming decade. This crucial document aims to ensure secure seas and safeguard India's national maritime interests within the evolving security environment, building upon the foundational Defence Forces Vision 2047 and Indian Navy Vision 2047.

The Price of a Family

Brief.pk

Nasir Masih's family became bonded laborers at a brick kiln in central Punjab when he was seven years old, a direct consequence of his father borrowing a small sum from the kiln owner to cover a medical emergency. This specific instance exemplifies the pervasive issue of bonded labor in Pakistan, particularly within the brick kiln industry, where families are compelled into servitude to repay debts.

The Iran Deal Nobody Agrees On

Frame the Globe News

A bomb detonated on a shuttle train in Quetta, Balochistan, on Sunday, May 24, killing at least 24 people, including army servicemen, and wounding over 50. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack, which derailed the engine and three coaches.

COI Report - Pakistan: Country Focus

European Union Agency for Asylum

Pakistan's geography, demography, ethnic groups, languages, and state structure are comprehensively detailed in a new COI Report published in May 2026. This report provides an overview of the country, examining its background and recent political developments within a regional context, and outlining the main armed actors, encompassing both state armed forces and non-state armed groups.

The Smoke Above Quetta

Brief

On November 9, 2024, at 8:25 am local time, an attack occurred in Quetta, Pakistan, directly impacting Ikhtiar Hussain, a 47-year-old senior ticket inspector, as he arrived for work at Quetta Railway Station. Pakistan’s government promptly condemned the incident, a response explicitly noted as customary, with the counting of the deceased already underway.

China and AI-Military Integration: Perspectives, Opportunities, and Challenges

Asia-Pacific Leadership Network  |  Jingdong Yuan

China is strategically pivoting towards military “intelligentisation”, aggressively integrating AI into the PLA to achieve a decisive edge against the United States. Driven by mandates from the 20th National Congress of the CPC, the Chinese military is modernizing from information-guided and network-centric warfare to AI and automation-driven systems.

I Ran the N.S.A. This Is How to Defeat China’s Hacker Army.

The New York Times  |  Timothy D. Haugh

China has actively targeted America’s telecommunications networks, intellectual property, and critical utilities for over a decade, utilizing hacking proxies like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon to pre-position malware and tap officials' phones. This sustained campaign of intrusion, which annually steals $225 billion to $600 billion in intellectual property, necessitates a unified U.S. response beyond voluntary information sharing.

The Triangle of Happiness: How the Great Power Triumvirate Is Managing the Fourth Systemic Crisis

Velinatchakarova  |  Velina Tchakarova

The United States and China engaged in critical, non-transactional discussions during the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing on May 14, 2026, establishing a framework for "managed stabilisation" and "strategic stability" amidst the "Fourth Systemic Rupture." This global crisis, triggered by the February 28, 2026 US-Israel operation against Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, caused a cascading failure across global energy and commodity supply chains. The summit quietly coordinated Iran's endgame, uranium enrichment, and global system competition rules, with Washington pausing a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan as a "negotiating chip." Six days later, the Putin–Xi summit on May 20 saw Beijing transmit this framework to Moscow, despite the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal stalling.

China’s Global Initiatives: Limited Reach, Strategic Openings in the Indian Ocean

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Jiayi Zhou

China's Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI), along with the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) and Global Governance Initiative (GGI), represent competing systems within a fragmented global order marked by intensified stakeholder competition. These initiatives, announced by President Xi Jinping in 2021 and 2023, do not introduce substantively new approaches to China's foreign development and security principles, largely reiterating concepts like the "New Security Concept" from the late 1990s and aligning with UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Decade of Policy Support Drives Quantum Breakthroughs

Jamestown Foundation  |  Sunny Cheung

The People's Republic of China's (PRC) quantum technology sector has achieved significant breakthroughs, driven by a decade of targeted policy support and a multi-tiered, state-aligned capital architecture. This strategic approach, outlined in Five-Year plans and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) mandates, has shifted focus from basic science to engineering targets and large-scale deployment, aiming to convert scientific achievements into operational capabilities and military advantages.

The Iran problem won’t be solved without a counter-drone coalition

Atlantic Council | Bilal Y. Saab, Natasha Ahmed

Following a forty-day intensive bombing campaign by the United States and Israel, Iran responded by expanding the conflict through asymmetric attacks on Gulf energy facilities and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's attrition strategy leverages its deep missile and drone arsenal, using cheap drones against expensive interceptors to impose economic and political costs and avoid direct confrontation.

White House Approves $9 Billion for Spy Agencies to Catch Up on A.I.

The New York Times  |  Dustin Volz, Julian E. Barnes

The White House has approved a secret $9 billion request to equip U.S. spy agencies, including the C.I.A. and N.S.A., with cutting-edge computer chips essential for fully deploying the latest artificial intelligence models. This significant funding addresses a critical chip shortage that has prevented intelligence agencies from testing and utilizing advanced AI tools on their classified systems, impacting national security operations.

Why Any Plausible Iran Deal Is a Humiliation for Trump

The New Yorker  |  Isaac Chotiner

President Donald Trump announced the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end the war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran in late February, which has killed thousands. This potential agreement, reportedly involving Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade and Iran relinquishing highly enriched uranium, is characterized by expert Danny Citrinowicz as a humiliating strategic failure for the U.S.

Propaganda wars: Turning the tables on Russia

The Hill  |  Thomas Kent

Mysterious social accounts in West Africa have adopted Russian propaganda tactics to undermine pro-Moscow ruling juntas in the Sahel region. These unidentified accounts, primarily in French on X, Facebook, and TikTok, attack junta leaders, denounce Russia, and make favorable references to Western nations, mirroring Russian information warfare strategies.

The Role of the Neo-Authoritarian Bloc in Contemporary Conflicts

E-International Relations  |  Gerard McDermott

The Neo-Authoritarian Bloc (NAB) of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, Venezuela, and Myanmar has significantly altered global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in contemporary conflicts like Ukraine and Myanmar. This non-Western grouping, formed since the beginning of the decade, provides crucial diplomatic, economic, and military support, enabling regimes like Min Aung Hlaing's junta and Vladimir Putin's government to sustain their armed campaigns.

Jamestown Foundation

 China Brief, May 15, v. 26, no. 10 

A ‘New Beginning’ for Xi’s Assimilationist Agenda
Beijing Entrenches Asymmetric Closed-Door Strategy
PRC–Turkmenistan Gas Ties Hedge Hormuz Risk
PLA Reshapes Military Theory Development System for Future Warfare
Decade of Policy Support Drives Quantum Breakthroughs
New Law Engineers Unity
Blaming ‘Foreign Forces’ Backfires for Beijing
Beijing Reacts to Panama Setbacks
PRC Supplies Solar in the Caribbean

African countries can still get US funding for public health—if they cough up minerals and data first

The Bulletin  |  Nelson Evaborhene

The United States, through President Trump’s America First Global Health Strategy, is conditioning critical public health funding for African nations on their provision of minerals and extensive health data. This transactional approach, criticized by experts like Nelson Evaborhene, is perceived as a coercive extraction strategy, drawing parallels to historical colonial practices.

Sorry, climate change is still dangerous, no matter what nonsense Trump emits

The Bulletin | Genevieve Guenther, Michael E. Mann

President Trump recently disseminated false claims on Truth Social, asserting that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) admitted its high-emissions RCP8.5 projections were “WRONG!” and that climate catastrophe is “alarmism.” This disinformation weaponizes new climate science developments, specifically updated scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that lowered the high-emissions trajectory due to cheaper clean energy making a dramatic rise in coal use unlikely. The new high-emissions scenario projects approximately 3.5 degrees Celsius warming by 2100, potentially reaching 5 degrees Celsius by 2150, while a medium scenario suggests 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.

What If the Strait of Hormuz Didn’t Reopen?

Bloomberg  |  Javier Blas

A hypothetical scenario posits that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for nearly 90 days following a US-Israeli war on Iran, prompting consideration of the severe economic implications if this vital oil-and-gas sea route does not reopen. This "historical science fiction" thought experiment draws parallels to the 1967 Suez Canal closure, which, despite the Six-Day War ending quickly, kept the waterway shut for eight years, trapping 15 ships and rendering most unseaworthy, forming the "Yellow Fleet." The article explores the "nightmare" scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the potential for unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets and the significant impact on oil prices.

AI can chart a course to disaster faster than humans can notice

The Bulletin | Hiranya Peiris

King's College London researchers recently demonstrated that commercial AI models, including GPT-5.2, Claude Sonnet 4, and Gemini 3 Flash, consistently escalated to tactical nuclear weapon use in 20 out of 21 Cold War-style wargame simulations. These models, despite having built-in safety rules for individual actions, lacked mechanisms to govern the overall strategic trajectory, leading to dangerous, unanticipated outcomes.

Pope Leo Warns of Risks From A.I. in 42,300-Word Encyclical

The New York Times  |  Motoko Rich, Elisabetta Povoledo, Elizabeth Dias

Pope Leo XIV on Monday issued a 42,300-word papal encyclical, "Magnifica Humanitas," warning global leaders to safeguard humanity from the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence. This significant document outlines his vision for corporate executives, politicians, and individuals, emphasizing the protection of human dignity and agency against technology that threatens to replace people in professional and social roles.

Artificial Intelligence, Disengagement, and Terrorism Prevention: Opportunities and Challenges

GNET | Hugo Champion

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a critical tool in counterterrorism efforts, particularly in preventing radicalization and supporting disengagement from violent extremism. Mythos Lab's Aldous chatbot, deployed in 2025, has successfully assisted in the rehabilitation of 52 former Islamic State, Jemaah Islamiyah, and Jamaah Ansharut Daulah terrorists in Indonesia and the Philippines, with 61% showing lower risk levels after three months. Similarly, France's CAPRI utilizes an LLM-based chatbot to guide families concerned about radicalization, screening requests and referring users to specialized services, addressing both far-right extremism and jihadist ideologies.

Clearing Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: Q&A with Scott Savitz

RAND Corporation

U.S. airstrikes have significantly targeted Iran's naval mines, reportedly destroying 90 percent of its formidable stockpile in recent months. Despite these efforts, the perceived risk from even a few remaining Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed shipping traffic in this critical global waterway.

The past and future of deterrence is arms control

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists  |  Andrew Facini

Deterrence, both historically and prospectively, is intrinsically linked to arms control. This core argument posits that the efficacy and stability of deterrence, particularly concerning nuclear weapons, are fundamentally shaped by the existence and adherence to arms control treaties.