Corbin K. Barthold
The United States and China are the world’s two great powers. The US boasts the largest economy, the global reserve currency, the leading AI firms, and a military with unmatched worldwide reach. China has the globe’s second-largest economy (far ahead of third-place Germany); commanding positions in key fields such as drones, batteries, and rare earths; an increasingly formidable navy; and, by virtue of its export dominance, substantial leverage over global trade. Cold War II is taking shape.
Or is it?
Dig deeper, and both nations start to look like surprisingly fragile societies drifting slowly but steadily toward disaster. Speaking on a podcast last month, China analyst Dan Wang offered a striking observation: “These two countries,” he said, need “to stop delivering” themselves “humiliating self-beatings.” In the United States, political divisions are entrenched, the distractions of the culture war persist, and respect for the rule of law is eroding. In China, meanwhile, disillusionment with the Chinese Communist Party—though largely hidden from Western eyes—runs deep, while the Chinese military reportedly wastes nearly half its time imbibing political propaganda rather than training for combat.
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