24 January 2026

Europe and ballistic-missile warning: space for improvement

Giorgio Di Mizio

Russia’s use of the Oreshnik (RS-SS-X-28) conventionally armed ballistic missile against Ukraine underscores this threat to NATO Europe. Launch detection, however, remains reliant on United States space-based systems, a dependency that the Alliance’s European members are grappling to address.

Within NATO, the United States is key to the early-warning mission through its Shared Early Warning System (SEWS), which provides near real-time information about missile launches. This capability is largely enabled by its Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS), making Washington the sole provider of orbital early warning. NATO’s European members are now seeking to address their shortfall in this area through the development and acquisition of sovereign capabilities, but they face challenges in doing so.

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