Kai-Shen Huang
The prevailing wisdom in Washington holds that the artificial intelligence (AI) race is a contest of brute force, to be won by the side with the most advanced chips, the largest data centers, and the deepest pockets. But in early January, the AGI-Next summit in Beijing functioned as a signal event, revealing a strategic clarity that is often absent from official rhetoric, and hinting that the U.S. may be optimizing for a race China is quietly rerouting.
During the summit, the major architects of China’s AI ecosystem, including leaders from Zhipu AI, Moonshot AI (Kimi), Alibaba (Qwen), and Tencent, presented a remarkably sober self-assessment. They framed the odds of China leading the next foundational artificial general intelligence (AGI) paradigm as well under 20 percent. But far from an admission of defeat, this “structural realism” marks the start of a sophisticated asymmetric offensive.
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