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1 March 2026

Cognitive Deterrence: How Taiwan Is Learning to Govern Resistance

Erika Lafrennie

Modern conflict no longer begins with force. It begins with cognition—with the shaping of perception, the conditioning of expectations, and the quiet management of what populations come to regard as normal, inevitable, or futile. This reality is now broadly acknowledged across defense, intelligence, and policy communities. The cognitive domain is recognized as contested terrain. Influence, narrative, and sensemaking are understood as strategic tools rather than peripheral effects.

What remains unresolved is how deterrence works in this domain. In Taiwan, that question is answered not in mobilization orders or troop movements, but in civic education programs, civil defense normalization, and public messaging designed to condition expectations long before a crisis.

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