How middle powers can weather US and Chinese AI dominance

Francisco Javier Varela Sandoval, Isabella Wilkinson

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The dominance of the US and China in AI development poses a significant conundrum for the rest of the world. For middle powers, the establishment of ‘sovereign AI’ strategies, which allow a country to influence, develop and deploy AI technology in line with national interests, may hold the key.

This paper recommends and details four clear approaches that enable middle powers to gain increased control over AI: specializing in a particular part of the global AI supply chain; aligning with one of the AI superpowers; sharing sovereignty with other countries to amplify influence; or hedging against instability by using a range of AI capabilities from different countries.

Global dependencies on US and Chinese technology are unavoidable, but increased sovereignty over the deployment of AI will allow smaller countries to develop their own technological paths that can prioritize the needs of their populations.