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18 April 2026

Disarmed And Betrayed, Then Reborn: Ukraine’s Drone War Revolution – Analysis

Oleg Chupryna

Since independence in 1991 Ukraine lived under illusion that it could be protected by international law, its neutral status and binding international agreements. Upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited a substantial nuclear arsenal, including 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles, over 500 cruise missiles, and 34 strategic bombers, amounting to approximately 1,700 nuclear warheads. This positioned Ukraine as the third-largest nuclear power globally, after the United States and Russia. Nevertheless, by 1996 Ukraine had fully relinquished its nuclear capabilities, motivated by confidence in the security assurances provided under the Budapest Memorandum.

Under this framework, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom—subsequently joined by France and China—committed to respecting Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, while refraining from the use of force or economic coercion. Consequently, Ukraine significantly reduced its conventional military capacity, including its inventories of tanks, artillery, and military aviation, alongside a substantial downsizing of its armed forces personnel.

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